Serious answers only.. how long do you think the lockdown will last?

[feefee322]

How long will lockdown last?? Only 3 weeks?! Were meant to move house

It wont be over by the may half term. We needed to have gone into a stricter Lockdown at least a week before we did.

I'm supposed to be moving house too. I bought my first house back in January. I'm not bothered about losing money as I'm in rented currently and this will be my forever home. Little bit sad at the thought of not being able to move at the end of April as originally planned.

I think it will last at least 3 months.
But normal life (overseas travel etc - as there will be lots of countries who don't want tourists/the ones that do will have endless out breaks and you won't be able to get travel insurance for this) won't resume until Easter next year when we will have to go through a hopefully smaller cycle of corona - hopefully we will have a vaccine in time for the autumn/winter flu season.

I really don’t know, so I’m going with the 12 week idea initially. It just depends how much the death rate explodes here doesn’t it.

But I do think that when it’s lifted people will go crazy with the freedom and within a month we will have to go back on lockdown because we will get a sudden increase in deaths.

I’m really hoping that measures can be taken to ease us back in to normal life and not just have us all go back to normal instantly. It’s too dangerous I think.

Any new thoughts?

But yes, if imperial who advises the government are right, the peak is next Sunday

Wrong. We’re expected to peak in two to three weeks’ time, not next week.

I was hoping by the end of April things will be more relaxed...seems I may be wrong

I think June at the very earliest. But I suspect it will be longer.

Just isolating the vulnerable won't work ffs!

My son is 15 and has severe Lung disease, how can he self isolate without the rest of the family doing it? Or should we prebook an itu bed and vent p, expose him and hope for the best? 😡

The very elderly who need daily care can't self isolate.
Cancer patients can't self isolate, they need hospital appointments.
It's ludicrous that the vulnerable and disabled are again just thought of as a burden rather than with value.

If this is the New World Order it will go on forever. If not, I think and hope no longer than six months altogether.
Apologies, bit of conspiracy theory slipped in there

cheery thought

So ... how do you think human nature works for this stage ....

You are young, know you are unlikely to be seriously ill. Suddenly, you see that immunity certificates are being ordered and given to those who can prove immunity, which enable the bearer to get back to normal life. What do you do?

They aren't going to do a solid 6 month lockdown. It would be untenable.

going out on a limb, but I think we've already got the turning point in sight.

1. i think Italy has already got herd immunity and will recover soon

2. i think hydroxychloroquine + zinc is an effective cure and will start to get widespread use

3. just developing and deploying the anti-body test will transform the nature of the lockdown

there are no cast iron facts behind this, just my interpretations of things, but what's the point of a prediction if you never say anything surprising / against the tide?

Jhj, I suspect you may be right, but it will likely be another month before we are released, I think the government won’t risk a huge resurgence, so as much as we might see numbers plateau or decline over the next couple of weeks, I think there will be a cautious approach.

At the speed things are moving, another month is a huge amount of time, in getting the nightingale hospitals fully operational, roll out anti viral treatments, cpaps and testing.

The other positive is that if we all sit back and look at this the speed in which the world has moved, from governments to the scientists has been nothing short of astonishing. Instead of criticism people should the congratulating them.

I was watching Ferguson being interviewed on the bbc, and the presenter was trying to pick holes in his predictions, and my husband said “that’s really shitty, he’s trying to predict something unknown, he’s not giving guarantees” and it made me think for a moment, because that’s what we see in the media “he got it wrong” when in reality these people are doing everything they possibly can to help and literally being asked the impossible. Instead of attacking and finding holes, we should be thanking them.

I think we are looking at up to 12 weeks of lock down, then the first restrictions to be lifted will be in June and will include re-opening the schools.

I think it will last a year. With some slight lifting of restrictions after 6 months.

"They aren't going to do a solid 6 month lockdown. It would be untenable"

What would people do about it? 🤷‍♀️

I like what Mumoftwoyoungkids wrote, 6 tight 3 a little relaxed, 3 somewhat more relaxed.

Followed by 4-5 weeks truly relaxed & then all crackdown again... unless the south Korea model can be implemented and is still succeeding in SK.

I don't understand why an anti-parasite drug would be good against viruses. That's a new one on me.

I think some things will begin to relax at the end of April, but not much. Definitely not anything that resembles normality for a while though. I don't know, perhaps those who are vulnerable or who have vulnerable people in the household will continue to receive government support to stay home, but a lot working from home are either not able to work at capacity or whatever, and more businesses will end up in the pan. I think a staggered return to offices before reopening some facilities, and then schools and pubs etc quite late in the year. Who knows though.

@TwoCatsSleeping seen as though we have no way near enough police or military to reprimand those who flount the rules, quite a lot people can do. Not saying they should of course, but it's safer for the vulnerable for a realistic and sustainable series of measures rather than just full lockdown for x amount of time.

My son is 15 and has severe Lung disease, how can he self isolate without the rest of the family doing it? Or should we prebook an itu bed and vent p, expose him and hope for the best? 😡

The people who are thinking just isolating the vulnerable seems like a good idea are either not thinking it through at all, or they literally don't give a shit - basically they're seeing entire categories of people as expendable.

When I'm feeling charitable I think they've mostly just not thought it through. They're missing:

• the fact that lots of vulnerable people are not 80 year olds conveniently in care homes with terminal illnesses, but are young active adults with full lives, families and important roles in the economy

• the fact that the disease does not kill only the obviously vulnerable, but also attacks younger people who can recover, but only after weeks of treatment and perhaps with long-term damage

• the fact that chaotic, overwhelmed hospitals and a high, fast peak of disease will itself kill many of the nation's medical staff and cause horrendous damage to the economy and everyone's mental health.

There is no convenient, quick and easy way out of this, even for young healthy people. It's going to be better if the disease spreads slowly, for everyone.

Just an uneducated guess, but my guess would be May for those who test positive for antibodies with social distancing remaining in place, vulnerable and their families the full 12 weeks and kids back to school 12 weeks minimum. For me the scariest time is when restrictions are lifted. If no immunisation how do we keep our vulnerable safe when shielding ends, but then neither can we expect them to stay safe in isolation if the rest of the country goes back to normal.

I know it sounds pathetic and there are far bigger things going o in the world but i really hope it isnt more than 12 weeks before we can see family. I only see my daughter once a fortnight as it is and neither of us drive so it is a bus journey for one of us to meet up. Im really, really missing her. My son is at home with me so i dont worry about him. Im missing my parents too obviously but the seperation from my daughter is just really, really painful. I know im not the only one though.

It's not going to be 6 months of "full lockdown" because the country would go bankrupt. They don't have the funds to pay everyone's wages for 6 months. The NHS also needs tax money to actually run.