Serious answers only.. how long do you think the lockdown will last?

[feefee322]

How long will lockdown last?? Only 3 weeks?! Were meant to move house

12 weeks in full lockdown.

The government will want to get the economy moving again after that. They won't be able to pay 80% of everyone's wages for an indefinite amount of time.

Schools closed until September.

I really don’t know but I don’t understand how the economy can withstand a long lockdown

I think initially 4-6 weeks. Then start to phase the opening of some things- see how we deal with it- allow things to open for a while- then another lock-down.

First peak in June, de-escalation August /September, second peak October de-escalation January, vaccine for February.

6 months minimum

The OP said serious answers only.

From Imperial’s Chris Ferguson yesterday:

Speaking via video link, Professor Ferguson explained that while there was some uncertainty, if current measures work as expected, then intensive care demand would ‘peak in approximately two to three weeks and then decline thereafter’.

www.imperial.ac.uk/news/196477/j-ideas-neil-ferguson-tells-mps-lockdown/

June

After the initial 3 weeks another 5 weeks IF we are lucky. But lockdown needs to be tougher than it is. Too many people are still out and about in England.

I think the kids will go back to school in June

A few months, then summer but with social distancing, maybe a new lockdown around october after the schools have started and everyone started working again and infecting each other. The second one might be a more lockdown light if** the people take the social distancing seriously over summer.

Saw something on tv this morning that says you can no longer move house in this lockdown . Sorry wasn't paying it overly much attention so don't know more.

However long it takes for the majority to decide they would rather just isolate the vulnerable and get on with life.

It's the vulnerable (who are quite a large part of the population actually) that still need to go to medical appointments and the pharmacy. They are also the ones that might have a lot of different carers coming in every day. They are precisely not in the position to fully isolate.

What exactly is meant by 'some relaxing of measures'? We're either locked in or not, surely.

That's where a better solution would be to isolate them, deliver all foods and meds to their door, replace their income with government grants, have special isolation wings, have carers on week rotations etc. Yes ...major hassle. Still less hassle than all this nonsense.

Once the people who have had it can be tested some normality for those people can resume. I think there will be affects of this for around a year. Schools opening again in September. Waves of crack downs.

I’m working on the basis of this all being largely over in 3 months. I have no reason to believe that but I think it’s all my brain can cope with accepting at the moment.

12 weeks, then relaxed for a short period, before back into lockdown.

That's where a better solution would be to isolate them, deliver all foods and meds to their door, replace their income with government grants, have special isolation wings, have carers on week rotations etc. Yes ...major hassle. Still less hassle than all this nonsense.

That would also mean isolating their carers and doctors. Who might have families they want to see.

18 months for some (those that need or want to wait for a vaccine)

I don’t have any answers, but I’ve prepared myself mentally for it not being before September. My brain can’t think beyond that!

Yes it would eg work on longer rotations. They can also wear protective clothing etc to shield them. This virus isn't going anywhere, or not for the next few years anyway. We need workable solutions that are ok, nothing is going to fully protect anyone. Lockdown now is too late and trashing the economy. They'll die years earlier anyway if we run out of money for meds and hospitals due to trashed economy.

My view (with no background in it at all!)

At the end of this 3 weeks we will have hit the “daily death peak” and it will start going down. (Based on the 17 days from transmission to death average.)

We will then have another 3 weeks of lockdown during which the death rate will fall further.

3 weeks of slight relaxing with the aim to maximise positive impact on the economy.

Another 3 weeks of more relaxing.

Then back to reasonably normal although people will still be advised to stay at home where possible.

So 12 weeks of lockdown - 6 strict, 3 slightly relaxed, 3 more relaxed.

I feel sorry for those who are vulnerable but how are people surviving who are self employed?!

We are not - we have 4 weeks of money left and are spending today talking to debt charities

We're self-employed and vulnerable.

It's shit.