This will be over in a month?

[CorinnaSinner]

I’ve seen that said by so many on social media and the DM (sorry I know) reported that death toll was halved today.

I thought this would last 3 months

Doctor on the bbc tonight said there were promising results in monkeys (that you can't be reinfected with Coronavirus) but can't say for sure. I didn't realise that you weren't immune once you got it

Most emails we had today from suppliers are estimating return to work after Easter.

I think not.

I didn't realise that you weren't immune once you got it

Scientists in Iceland say they have identified 40 different coronavirus mutations.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8146565/Scientists-Iceland-claim-FORTY-mutations-coronavirus.html

What’s wrong with cycling OP?

I went on a bike ride today and guarantee I saw less people and put myself at less risk than you going to buy food for your neighbour!

It will go on for so much longer if people don't take this seriously.

I live in North Wales in a pretty area. A car full of people drove from Liverpool to here today for a 'walk' which is a 60 mile round trip. The police thankfully sent them home.

What will it take for people to just stay at home and follow the rules!

A single day of change if direction does not signal a trend. The numbers could easily be 3 times as high, tomorrow. They may well continue to go up and down but until they go down more than they go up, we have not peaked.

People are answering two different questions here. When will the Coronavirus crisis be over is a different question from When will the lockdown be over.
If the crisis goes on for two years, we're not going to live like this for two years are we?

No it won't, and that'll partly be down to people like my moronic neighbours. Family left mid afternoon on their bikes. They were gone nearly 4 hours. We have a huge field behind our houses. So why didn't they take their one exercise period in there? Because the sun was shining, so they thought they'd have an afternoon out.

Used to be a really good neighbour to them. After this, I wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire.

I don't think we should speculate, I'm hopeful that in 3 weeks things will be relaxed and some of us can go back to work but who knows . I expect it to be 3 months of social distancing then maybe another couple more months things may start to go back to normal. I think we'll get used to it we have to , it's scaring me some of those people that have no health conditions who have died so I wouldn't take any risk . A 1/3 of the world is on lockdown so it's serious , it's a short term interference for long term success .

I also think it's too early to say it's only day 2 maybe after a week or so .

2 reasons I don't think this will be over in a few weeks.

1 - they are advising those who need shielding to fully lock themselves down and even avoid contact within their home for 'at least 12 weeks'. The Welsh minister says 12-16 weeks.

2- the graph of the modelling of the peaks of ICU cases that need limiting to the capacity of the NHS shows the suggested series of stronger and lesser measures eg school closing/distancing in the blue boxes and is forecast over a lot longer.

12 weeks minimum and 18 weeks before a breather, it still won't be gone, but there may be a more manageable scenario. Older drugs that don't need rigorous human testing will be licensed; repurposed as treatments for Covid-19, societies will evolve and conform to the rules, medical equipment shortages will ameliorate. In 3-4 months the depth of knowledge will be much deeper about the nature of the virus and a vaccine won't still be near completion, but there will be more control.

Used to be a really good neighbour to them. After this, I wouldn't piss on them if they were on fire

Comments like this make for somewhat depressing reading imo.

The biggest positive is the news of possible testing. Once we can find who has already had it and is immune then we can look at getting the economy going.

I hope that all the "it won't be over in a month" are the new "we won't go in lockdown tonight":

Nobody knows. It might be over in a month to 6 weeks, we might get a vaccine, a way to treat it. Testing might help a lot. For all we know more than half of the population already got it. It might last 9 months or a month, we don't know..

Re Lockdown. From what I have read, some people do not seem to accept a lockdown to start with, so I really cannot see this kind of lockdown lasting too long, unless more people were dying.
Obviously, I do not want people to die, though.
Then those people having BBQs, etc may start taking it seriously.
The idea of 'flattening the spike', will also lengthen the duration of the infection in the population, but I am hoping that as the weather gets warmer, the rate of infection may slow.
(I have no basis for that, as obviously it has taken hold in much hotter countries than the UK. It is just that flu and colds are generaly seasonal, and although I know this is a new desease, it just feels so weird, when the weather gets warmer).
I expect schools to be back in September, although ideally, I would like them back at the Spring halfterm, but maybe there will be a consensus that it wont be worth going ack at that time, although except for those who woruld normally be doing GCSEs and A levels, it is still 6 weeks of work.
I imagine restrictions will be lifted gradually, to see if the rate of infections start inreasing again.
At the moment, I do not expect any lifting of restrictions until after Easter, as I fully expect the death rate to increase, as it has in other countries.

Lets see. It takes a few days possibly a bit longer from the moment your infected to the illness progression and the time your better that can take up to 28 days or therabouts, in that time your infectious to others.

So we start a total lockdown today so how long before the ilness has has had no one to infect?, it dosent "jump" in a mysterous way the viral particles are very small but not as small as some.

So if, and its a very big if, no one conected no one else then give it a month and the infection rate will drop right off. However then it will rise again the moment you relase the lockdown as some peole will still be infections thats where better and easier and quicker testing will be very usefull.

Apart from that some drug trails are under way one of them's looking very good indeed and others are on the way, a lot of people are working on this right now.

One thing that could be a game changer is a much better face mask and filter that might allow quite a few people to go back to work. OK not much fun wearing one but perhaps a small price to pay in order to get the economy back on some sort of recovery.

It does make me wonder that in every pictiure you see from Aisa everyones get a mask on. OK present ones arent that effective but as Tescos say every litte helps!, better masks and better the reduction in illness spread!.

It's not going to be over in a month, China is 2 months down the line and our government acted too late to lockdown. I'm afraid because of this I think the UK is going to so much worse. Im actually struggling to sleep worrying about what will happen if my children lose me. People are dying in their droves of all ages. This is just the start and if peole keep ignoring lockdown measures its only going to make things a zillion times worse

The strategy is that pretty much everyone gets it but in an orderly manner rather than all at once so as not to overwhelm the health service and knacker the economy.

It's not that we stay in for a bit and it all goes away.

The plan which is not hidden is to lockdown to slow it, loosen to get it moving again, lockdown to slow it etc until we have herd immunity.

This message does not seem to be getting across. People seem to think the lockdown is to make it go away...

Some BBC things say up to 2 years. Fact is, no one knows at the moment.

As people aren't stopping meeting/partying/bbqing ect I doubt it will be over in a month.

It is more likely to be over in a month if people do continue meeting as all the cases will occur together (and more people will die). Tge whole point of lockdown is to drag it out longer so the ill can be treated.

People are dying in their droves of all ages

Lots of people are dying and lots more will die but over 99% of us will not.

@nicenewdusters How do you think a family on bikes will be spreading or catching disease? They won't be close to anyone! They certainly won't be within 2m of strangers breathing in each other's outbreaths. They'll be cycling on by, all nice and distant.

My thoughts are

I cant see lockdown being less than six weeks.

Even if it lifts then it will not be back to normal, there will be restrictions in place for some time.

I really don’t get how cyclists are spreading it either if they are keeping a safe distance from people.

It won’t be over in a month. There are still millions going out work wing crammed together in construction and warehouses/factories. The end won’t be in sight until that stops