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Have I totally misunderstood Coronavirus?!!

216 replies

Soph7777 · 25/03/2020 21:11

I'm really confused on so many levels. I don't understand why such panic about contracting it IF you have no underlying health conditions or are over 70.

The chance of dying is still much lower than many, many other illnesses.

I obviously get why people shouldn't be going out of their way to get it - to protect the NHS in the main.

But my understanding of this disease after watching hours and hours of documentaries and reading up is that 80 percent of us WILL get it.

Lockdown is to stop it spreading so quickly that NHS can't cope to treat everyone leading to many more deaths than necessary - it's not to stop us getting it (which inevitably most of us will).

Have I totally missed the mark here?

I don't get why so many people I speak to are acting like getting it means you'll die instantly once you contract it. It doesn't.

Does anyone else feel the same?

OP posts:
SirChing · 27/03/2020 00:47

@Nameofchanges You are exactly correct about how decisions are made. At least one person understands. It means I am not explaining in a completely impenetrable way after all!

@Potkettlexx Only if you count being here 11 years as new.

Potkettlexx · 27/03/2020 00:56

@SirChing

I’m not proclaiming to be an expert. I’m a lay person, I accept that. Of course I have no understanding of the intricacies of the decision making process but even as a lay person I can assume who would get priority based on a set of circumstances.

The personal circumstances I gave in my original post as well the general circumstances surrounding the ‘patients’ were clear cut. It’s blatantly obvious to everyone what would happen there but you couldn’t/wouldn’t agree- I can’t understand why, especially when they were polar opposites apart. Yet you still could t say yes I agree in these circumstances it’s likely the younger one would be offered it. Perhaps I’m way off the line with regards to having kids being taken in to consideration and that’s fine. I’m happy to learn. If I was wrong then fair enough, I can hold my hands up and say on that particular issue I was ignorant.

Of course it’s not always down to age. I never said it always was but as you say yourself, the outlook is generally better the younger someone is- given all the other circumstances are similar.

SirChing · 27/03/2020 00:57

@Potkettlexx And my "attitude" is merely a response to your demanding and belligerent time, telling me I haven't answered questions which I have, and in general being bloody rude.

I am amazed at how much you are challenging facts when clearly you have no medical knowledge. And was embarrassed for you that you seemingly have no idea of your own tone or that being demanding and belligerent is not the best way to gain a polite response.

If you want to debate this, go away, train in a medical field, sit through hours and hours of medical ethics lectures, then come back. Because you really and truly are not getting the point.

BigChocFrenzy · 27/03/2020 00:59

The NHS does not triage by age

It does NOT consider at all whether a person has children, a high-paying job etc

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-official-guidance-doctors-decide-coronavirus-patients/

Paul Nuki@PaulNuki (Telegraph)

1/7 Official guidance sets out rules for doctors triaging critical care in UK...^

  • provides "algorithm" to guide doctors
  • says patients to be considered by "frailty score"
  • data on mortality by pneumonia by age
  • advises on cancer/ and dialysis

Sobering reading

2/ In Italy, doctors have reportedly been forced to discriminate between patients based simply on age.
^
The NICE guidance does NOT categorise by age
but instead asks doctors to score patients on a “clinical frailty scale” [CFS] as they might normally do. #COVIDD199^
^
< screenshot 1>

3/ Admissions to be made on the basis of “medical benefit, taking into account the likelihood that the person will recover to an outcome that is acceptable to them and within a period of time consistent with the diagnosis,”

says NICE.
Here's the algorithm: < screenshot 2 >

4/ The triage guidance also provides doctors with mortality data for patients suffering from pneumonia
in critical care beds compared to a regular hospital ward.

This is age banded. < screenshot 3 >

5/ Data banded by age is also provided for critical care patients
with and without underlying heart and lung conditions

https://www.nice.org.uk/guidance/ng159/resources/information-to-support-decision-making-pdf-8708913901

6/ Covid-19 patients receiving treatment for cancer or who need dialysismust also be carefully assessed ahead of admission.

“Where decisions need to be made about prioritising patients for treatment,
these need to take into account the level of immunosuppression,”
it says.

7/ @NICEComms
Nice says the guidelines will be updated as more data becomes available.

They have been produced in collaboration with NHS England and a cross-specialty clinical group, supported by the specialist societies and Royal Colleges

Have I totally misunderstood Coronavirus?!!
Have I totally misunderstood Coronavirus?!!
Have I totally misunderstood Coronavirus?!!
Nameofchanges · 27/03/2020 01:02

Kettle, you couldn’t say which it would be without assessing both as individuals. There would be a scoring system based on severity of symptoms, underlying conditions and so on.

It has crossed my mind that my weight might be taken into account, which is part of my overall survivability. It had not crossed my mind that somebody is going to deny me a ventilator just because my kids are grown up and some other woman of the same age has small children. Because that isn’t the job of the NHS.

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:02

The personal circumstances I gave in my original post as well the general circumstances surrounding the ‘patients’ were clear cut

They were clear cut to you. In your position as a lay person. I didn't say, because I didn't want to be rude, but you have basically given me fuck all information to go on. So no, I won't say X would definitely get it but Y wouldn't. Because without looking at ALL the many facets of someone's medical history and physical presentation, I can't do that. It is way more complex than that.

Your "assumptions as a lay person" are just that. Assumptions. Not facts. Now I really am off.

Potkettlexx · 27/03/2020 01:04

@SirChing

Well that’s one thing we have in common, I find you rude too.

I suspect you were a doctor and now retired. I’ve hit a nerve with my first comment as you’re about 65 and have taken it personally!

Chill out, relax and enjoy the rest of your night. Hope you sleep well 😘

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:05

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy I really couldn't be arsed to start digging about for all that. You have more patience than me. Ironically because I am lying here with suspected Covid.

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:06

I suspect you were a doctor and now retired. I’ve hit a nerve with my first comment as you’re about 65 and have taken it personally!

Totally and utterly wrong Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 27/03/2020 01:06

@SirChing My best wishes for a speedy recovery 💐

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:09

@BigChocFrenzy Thank you. I lurk on the Brexit threads so "know" you IYSWIM. Hope you are looking after yourself and I am wildly envious of your German health system. You take care xx

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:11

@Nameofchanges Weight can be taken into account but as one third of the population is overweight, I wouldn't worry too much. A BMI of more than 40 is when it becomes a real problem as it's more difficult to ventilate someone. Doesn't mean that No-one with a BMI over 40 isn't ventilated though.

Potkettlexx · 27/03/2020 01:12

@SirChing

Well for some that’s suspected of having it you seem to be doing very well, debating away (arguing 😂) on here do I suspect you’re up there at number 1/2 😉 so I assume you’ll be fine.

Joking aside. You may have done my head in tonight, however if you have got it then I sincerely mean this when I say I wish you a speedy recovery. Take care

SirChing · 27/03/2020 01:15

@Potkettlexx Thank you.

llGrantyll · 27/03/2020 01:57

Almost all of this is from what I have read and heard yet I am certainly no proffessional, these are my views on Corona Virus and why time is the key.

Everyday that goes by is a step closer to understanding this illness, if antibodies are being developed to make people much less likely to get full blown symptoms again but crucially, everyday without this we are closer to an anti-virus.
Many of us will get this but the attitude of many was to ignore advice and not take this seriously but all they have to do is look at Italy, listen to their doctors and nurses and watch some documentaries or short vids on their current plight.
Italy has far more beds and ventilators than we have and we are said to be 2-3 weeks bvehind them so without drastic change we were set to be an Italy plus situation, it could have been dire.

In the Sky short video i watched they said in the hospital they were filming in every single bed was taken and al but one of the patients on ventilators had made no progress towards recovery with the exception of one single Male, the doctors were also saying that many in their 30's and 40's were needing ventilators, the death rate was lower than that of the old but the issue comes when these people young or old cannot get a bedd, thats when the death rate spirals and to think in developed and civilised countries that that could happen in this day and age is the real shock for us all.
Quite simply this has caught us all cold, govenments werenot prepared but as a once in a century shock to the system maybe this can be forgiven to an extent, however it can never be allowed to happen again and I'm sure we'll all learn from this but the honest truth is that Ignorance is the real killer here, listen, respect advice and we will all save lives.

The light here is that in China there are minimal newcases yet hundreds of recoveries daily, this suggests that they peaked and are developing immunity. Italy also seems to be peaking, possibly so in the next 2-3 weeks we should have much clearere understanding of the lifespan of this virus.
My only worry would be on the accuraccy of these figure and the full and open honesty within them whilst theother key point is that we all implement and adhere to the same strict limits on movement which is what is working in these other countries.

Long term there will be an anti virus, usually this could take a minimum of 18 months to 2 years but projections suggest we could get there within 6 months, the whole world is working on this on an unprecedented scale and so we should see records broken and show what we can all do when we pull together.
The worry for me is that we aren't all helping poorer countries with their situations, Iran for example are their numbers all above board and honbest as there was a clear attempt to hide those early on. We could erradicate the bug from our country on;y to see it return in a year or two on a form which is above and beyond the anti virus that has been developed, thats a worse case scenario but some virus's are capable of mutating far more than others so it is in all of our interest to share the information and ideally to develope a medicine which is affordable for all as if Italy has struggled, imagine what will happen in far poorer countries when this virus really hits those.

Limiting the spread and buying time really is the answer here, at least short term and then as Op suggests if many more do get it then it will be a simple case of taking your medicine, just for now, take this seriously and protect those around you, better that than regrets!

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