People without underlying conditions shouldn't be afraid of covid-19 **MNHQ editing title to make clear that this is one person's opinion and not fact**

[Alialialiali]

The German mortality rate is 0.4% which is comparable to flu

Germany are testing more than any other European nation whereas we're only testing people when they're admitted to ICU which means that all the people with mild to no symptoms are not featuring in our mortality rate driving it quite high and scaring everyone.

AIBU in believing that people without underlying conditions should not be worried about getting the disease?

are you trying to goad people? Everyone should be worried about getting it

Well, I am utterly devoid of any kind of mathematical or scientific mind, but what you say makes sense to me - and is very reassuring to think, so I'm gonna go with it!

Well, yes, I'm still worried about it, and treating it very, very seriously, but it's nice to have a few reassuring thoughts to latch on to when the health anxiety threatens to become overwhelming!

Mortality for flu is below 0.1. So o.4 is 4 times that - so significantly more.

But yes, for younger age groups and those without underlying conditions the mortality is reasonably low.

Still - 0.4 means one person in every 250 who catch CV but don't have underlying conditions will still die. I wouldn't take part in a sport if I was told 1 in 250 people die doing it.

And, of course, if health services are overwhelmed that proportion goes up, as there aren't enough resources to save those who have it badly...

YANBU

Well, I've kind of had it. Had a bad couple of days in which I was panicking more from the news I was reading than the actual symptoms. I had actually convinced myself on Sat night that I needed a respirator.
I was back at work on Monday though... from home. And I feel good now.
I'm not sure how spreading the panic helps the people who have it.

Personally, no, I’m not worried about getting it. But encouraging people to think that way leads to people being blasé - there’s already a lot of misunderstanding about why we have to stay indoors so as the people for whom it would be serious don’t overburden the health system.

Shouldn’t be worried about catching it but should be worried about passing it on, I think that’s the general consensus. Waltzing around without a care in the world because you won’t personally die from it is beyond irresponsible. We all have a responsibility to people who it WILL kill.

But there is also plenty of reports of healthy young people ending up critically ill. Also spreading things like that just makes people not take social distancing seriously resulting in more cases and more deaths of those who are at risk. Put simply yes everyone should be scared of catching it.

1. OK - a death rate of 0.4% is 4 times that of flu (usually runs at about 0.1%)
2. The above 0.4% has not been proved, and varies with sex and age regardless
3. If you are assuming that 0.4% is the rate (as noted above, NOT proven) when there is a fully effective health system in place that has not been overwhelmed, then I have some bad news for you from Italy (and soon - from the UK)
4. It beggars belief that:- a) The country's economy would be impacted as it is has been now if it was "just" a flu-like disease b) That anyone, having seen what is happening in Italy and Spain could reasonably be honest in asking the above question

Isn’t there currently a nurse in her 30s who has no underlying conditions currently fighting for her life?

Because there are stories from fit and healthy 28 year olds who have ended up in hospital from it. Please use a bit of common sense/decency and realise not every experience is the same as your own!!

I don’t think most people are worried about getting it themselves.

They’re worried about their elderly or vulnerable family members
They’re worried about how they’re going to pay rent this month because they can’t work
They’re worried about their children’s development and education
They’re worried about the inevitable economic crisis and recession that will follow

Running around panicking won’t help anyone, true, but neither will saying “it’s only the sniffles, there’s NOTHING to worry about”.

@ComtesseDeSpair
But encouraging people to think that way leads to people being blasé
There's a middle ground surely. I mean, won't the NHS experience uneccessary load from people thinking they're about to die cause they're lungs are tight? I was just scared that it was going to get a lot worse and then I'd be in a queue on the phone etc... what would I do.

Healthy young people without underlying health conditions have died. And many more are in intensive care fighting for their lives. On a packed ward with no visitors. So yes, you should be afraid.

Fantastic Radio 4 programme this morning that covered this idea (Tim Harford doing a More or Less special on Coronavirus).

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000gwy8

We’ve dedicated this special episode to the numbers surrounding the Coronavirus pandemic. Statistical national treasure Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter put the risks of Covid-19 into perspective. We ask whether young people are safe from serious illness, or if statistics from hospitalisations in the US show a high proportion of patients are under 50. We try to understand what the ever-tightening restrictions on businesses and movement mean for the UK’s economy, and we take a look at the mystery of coronavirus numbers in Iran.

Yes, well if they don't care at all about other people, perhaps they wouldn't worry. But what truly selfish people they would be in that case.

all the people with mild to no symptoms are not featuring in our mortality rate

I would think people with mild or no symptoms are not featuring in anybody's mortality rate. Death would surely count as a symptom.

I knew what you meant to say, just couldn't resist the opportunity...

Well I know 2 fit and healthy young adults who've ended up seriously ill with it in hospital. Granted they hopefully won't die, but what happens when hospitals are overwhelmed and such people can't access the medical help they need because there are no beds/resources? I am seriously concerned.

Well, YANBU
Too many people with a 0.4% chance of dying are panicking. Its the vulnerable such as those with an underlying respiratory or heart condition who have a death rate of 6-10% that really need to worry.
Obviously everyone can be worried, but some people who have the least chance of dying are being drama queens.

I mean, won't the NHS experience uneccessary load from people thinking they're about to die cause they're lungs are tight? I was just scared that it was going to get a lot worse and then I'd be in a queue on the phone etc... what would I do.

Well by that logic your post makes it worse. If all people see are posts saying “it’s just the flu, nothing to worry about, stop panicking” then of course they’re going to freak out if they start struggling to breathe.

Ignore me, I've just realised my brain failure.

They certainly don’t have to AS worried. But some people without underlying conditions are still getting very sick, and even if you don’t get hospitalised it sounds pretty unpleasant. Even if you argue it’s no worse than flu for people who are healthy, flu isn’t fun! My healthy brother died of flu when he was 37, and a childhood friend died aged 31 leaving behind a 2 year old daughter, and she had no underlying health conditions.

People taking the attitude “it’s fine if you’re healthy!” are often the same people who decide that lockdown doesn’t apply to them and they’re safe to meet with a few mates for a bbq at home etc.

What stats we have now would suggest that people under 50 with no underlying conditions are very unlikely to die from this. True.

However ...

Complacency from these people will make the situation worse all round.

Much better not to get it at all. The death rate is not zero.

You may have underlying conditions you aren’t aware of.

A totally overwhelmed NHS might not have enough respirators for the healthy under 50s, let alone anyone else, so death rates in this age group could easily rise.

We should all be afraid.

The mortality rate will only stay low(ish) if people can be treated and kept alive.

There aren't enough respirators, there aren't enough medical workers, and there aren't enough beds to cope with an influx.

How many times does this need to be said?