Has Italy peaked? Numbers are down on yesterday...

[turkeyontheplate]

...and so are ours. Is it too early to hope that a corner has been turned?

Wherever you're getting your numbers from , they're wrong.

I think storm Jorge was 2 weeks ago, wonder of thats having an impact?

They thought that the other week when the rate was lower than the day before - then it jumped up again. Too early to tell until you see a pattern of lowering cases.

But I hope it is, or it's soon.

I can't speak for Italy as I think the next few days will give that answer.
As for UK we are not testing very many people really so we can't really use out numbers.

I am not really looking at the numbers now. They are so sad and unreliable. I am now not leaving the house. My kids are off school, I am working from home and DP is being MR Daddy teacher.
I still don't feel safe in my own home.

Key workers are amazing! I have every bit of amazement at their courage! I wish them all good health and I hope the Country has done enough so the strain they are feeling is not going to go on as long as it is expected to do.

Also OP...Stay safe yourself

Way too soon to say, but they did go into lockdown two weeks ago so they should hopefully see some results from that.
I think our cases will continue to rise for at least 2 more weeks as we've only just introduced stricter measures, but given we are still not in lockdown, it's unlikely we're near the peak.

I think we'd have to see at least 3 consecutive days of either static growth in deaths or death rate starting to fall in Italy before anyone can say the worst is over

I'm getting my numbers from Worldometer, and I'm pretty sure they're not wrong.

Indications are that people end up in hospital after roughly a week, so with an incubation period of up to 14 days, the new cases we see each day were actually infected up to 3 weeks ago. And we are still not testing anyone other than those admitted to hospital.

There have been odd days before that have dropped. We need to see a trend to have confidence

According to Worldometer there were 48 deaths today compared to 56 yesterday.

I'm hoping they'll continue to fall, but I think they will fluctuate a bit and it's too early to say if there'll still be a general rise or if they'll keep falling.

There were less confirmed cases in scotland today than yesterday too..
Suspect it won't be sustained

Ours definitely won't have peaked thanks to all the idiots who went out Friday night, we are just getting started

At the press conferences (for all Italy and for Lombardy) I saw they said it was a fall, but not yet a trend, we'd need to see if it continues with Monday and Tuesday's figures. There have been days with lower new cases before.

There was some concern over a rise in Emilia Romagna.

Hopefully it is the first signs of the effect of lockdowns in the north, extended to the whole country on the 10th so the effects of that are expected to start showing later in the week. And they keep tightening the lockdown so I guess that will be reflected in the data over time too.

I mean they had a drastically high number of deaths reported yesterday at 793, so this number could have just been an outlier instead of the true trajectory. Therefore it’s too early to tell

It's the new cases we are looking at in terms of the peak, as I understand it the number of deaths would probably go on rising for a while afterwards due to the length of time between infection and death/recovery.

There is missing data from Lombardy I believe.

I sincerely hope there is not massive jump tomorrow.

It is possible for Italy, after 2 weeks of lockdown, but absolutely not possible for the UK. We have done the equivalent of putting a wet paper towel on this pandemic.

What are the figures please OP?

Italy may conceivably be starting to peak now: two weeks into lockdown. We won't be anywhere near.

@Dongdingdong the numbers are here:

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Apols, got them.

Today: 5560 new cases and 651 new deaths

Yesterday: 6557 new cases and 793 new deaths

So that’s almost 1000 less cases today compared to yesterday. Very encouraging!

I think the expected peak is at roughly three weeks after serious lockdown.

As I understood it, this translates broadly as 1 week without symptoms and then two weeks of illness before death.

Civil protection, Lombardia etc are all saying look at Tuesday's numbers. Too early yet to know if it's a trend, it's hard not be be hopeful though. Predictions for the peak seem to vary between 25 March-3 April.

There was some concern over a rise in Emilia Romagna.