60-80% will contract this disease

[Alialialiali]

I am currently in self-isolation and in all likelihood have this. My area is a hotspot and in the beginning I was asked to come into the hospital which now has the most cases in the country so if i didnt have it then i may well have picked it up there.

Next year there'll be another virus... then another.... then another. What are we going to do? Shut down the entire nation every time? This is not as simple as the flu but it's not EBOLA either.

The government strategy is to flatten the curve. It's not eradication. Regardless of whatever lockdown you think is coming we are still expecting 60-80% of the population to become infected. And we're looking for that to happen within 12 weeks. That is my reading of the strategy. I feel like a lot of you don't really understand that and are holding out hope for a vaccine.

Anyway, I already know where the voting's going to go on this one. My intention is to let you guys know that outside of your bubble a large proportion of the country thinks like me and even if they don't right now, reality will soon set in after 2 weeks of what we're calling a lockdown. You can't expect 20/30 somethings to stop life and sit in a home they don't own, for a year. And I'm aware that we're saying it's really dangerous for them as 20% of cases that end up on a respirator but survive are under 50... but the probability is low enough for a huge section of society to just not care enough.

Anyway, it's not a question of if but how unreasonable do you think i'm being?

Patrick Vallance explaining strategy:
parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/cced67ec-c445-4698-a21b-7d9ff8a01354

Chris Whitty explaining that they are not holding out for a vaccine and that eradication is not the strategy.. ie. we're all going to get it

@Alialialiali I have read the entire report. I said Whitty was lying when he said 100,000 was a worst case scenario. He was. The path they were choosing to follow, herd immunity, had a best case scenario of 250,000. This was if every person received the best possible care. Which they knew at the time was impossible.

So yes, I do think I know better than Whitty is telling us, and no, I don't trust their projections at all. Their modelling is based on flawed projections and they should be basing it from the empirical data coming in from China, Spain, Italy - the data that we all have access to.

No-one knows the precise figure herd immunity will occur at, because no-one knows the precise R0 of this virus. The two are correlated.

you can't expect 20/30 somethings to stop life and sit in a home they don't own, for a year
Maybe they'd better start learning to do what they're advised to do, because the next nasty virus might target them.
(Apologies to all the 20/30 year olds who are doing the right thing already).

So yes, I do think I know better than Whitty is telling us, and no, I don't trust their projections at all.

This is the thing. They may have very accurate predictions and data - but I don't trust that they will necessarily tell us the truth.

@Oakmaiden I agree completely.

Of course they're not going to tell us the whole truth, it will cause panic and social unrest. They will tell us what we need to know.

Feelingverylazytoday

And we wonder why the pubs and subways are still heaving...

What's your scientific background, op?

Does anyone know where the poll disappeared to?
At 50 odd people we had a 70/30 split which was more than i was expecting. A LOT more.

Whitty also said about the test and trace working in SK, however, it is unfeasible here.

It is unfeasible because of this though;

"South Korea is also enforcing a law that grants the government wide authority to access data: CCTV footage, GPS tracking data from phones and cars, credit card transactions, immigration entry information, and other personal details of people confirmed to have an infectious disease."

Our left wing friends wouldn't allow it - or would they?

Does anyone know where the poll disappeared to?

The thread has been moved from AIBU to Coronavirus.

What outcome were you expecting OP?

"Sweats through his eyes". I've heard more weird idioms on MN than I've heard anywhere else. It's like people are being paid by the panic-inducing phrase.

I'm glad someone else here is talkinh about the number of deaths caused by social isolation each year. Not just suicide but murders too. Some other people think deaths only count if they're caused directly by covid-19.

Chris Whitty...has disappeared

Most likely explanation is that he's got it. Many public health professionals, including politician, worldwide, have contracted it.

It's reportedly right through Westminster, which is the district with the first mobile morgues.

Where's Prince Charles? Serious question, he been seen lately? Lot about the Queen and Prince Will, evacuation of Queen and DoE, nothing about Charles, nothing - other than the story that Prince Albert of Monaco contracted it after meeting with Prince Charles 9 days before.

@RuffleCrow do I get paid for that one? Sound....also how is a description of someone looking 'sweaty' panic inducing....? Personally I think the terms 'scaremongering' and 'panic inducing' whilst having a discussion over coronavirus are entirely unnecessary - the thing itself is frightening enough, talking about it isn't...

If anyone thinks it is, stay away from the coronavirus threads.....its likely to contain 'scary' posts by people who have an opinion, on a 'scary' topic....head & wobble