How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

I find it hard to imagine that it will go on for 12-18 mths. That seems such a long time. I really hope it's not.
I'm not sure if I'm unrealistic but I'm hoping things will get better in the hot weather of the summer? And kids will return to school as usual in September? Is that unrealistic?

6 months

medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Is really interesting and I hope true. I think it people thought that a brutal but short term hammer would enable us to have time to sort out a South Korea and Singapore approach we would be ok board

Not back to normal. Not back to how it was. I just mean more normal, ie kids going to school at least?

@nellodee have you read the article I just linked because that is pretty much the authors view

If there is self isolation required for all that time then the governments requiring it will have to explain why the suicide deaths that will surely follow are preferable to other ones

@Ordree this with bells on.

@Quartz2208, nope, but I'm just off to read it now.

This is not the 1940s we have the means to do proper testing and find out who is and who isn't a risk in a modern liberal democracy we will not tolerate a blanket lockdown when we have the technology for a much more nuanced approach

right now the only emergency that we have is the emergency caused by the government's emergency measures

@Quart2208 What an amazing article. Yes, yes and yes! All the yesses! We need to do this and we need to do it NOW!

2 years or so. That's if someone manages to find a vaccine that works, which is not certain - have they ever found one for a coronavirus?

Life will never be the same again for those of us with the pre-existing conditions making us vulnerable to death from this.

When the UK news reports deaths, it always adds 'had pre-existing conditions' in a way that makes me feel they are justifying the death as less worrying and less of a loss.

I wish we lived in Germany.

debt

In the 1930s the world was in a deep depression but there was a war nonetheless. Ironically enough the war was a massive boost to the economy

We aren’t in 1930 though and now we have nuclear capability. That’s not cheap. It also means completely destroying entire countries which affects us all. The comparison you made is completely ridiculous. War in the 1930s and war now is a completely different ball game.

2 years or so. That's if someone manages to find a vaccine that works

Wow, what a defeatist post. I assume you are of the opinion that all the treatments currently being trialed to cure it in the next few weeks will fail and that even though a vaccine is predicted in the next year, worst case eighteen months, you also don’t believe that?

It’s very sad some people have such a pessimistic view, that even knowing trials to cure it are looking positive, they still don’t believe it, and simply look for worst case, life will never be the same, really? This is your view? I do feel for you as it must be terrifying to simply not believe the scientists and have this view.

@bluntness100

I completely agree.

On and off for the next 2 years.

As the government respond to the changes in infection rates and NHS capacity.

Based entirely on what has been said during the press conferences.

But they also said during the press conferences that they thought there were drugs to treat it and would do so, and potentially in the next twelve weeks. No one said anything in the press conferences to indicate This was for two years.

Whatever you’re basing it on it’s certainly not what was said in the press conferences.

@Bluntness100

Of course I hope effective treatments and vaccine(s) will be found, but this is far from certain and I find it naïve to assume that everything will turn out fine.

I don't mean to be focusing on a worst case scenario, but in order to be safe, I believe more drastic measures have to be taken.

I also think there will be big differences between how people view this depending on their own age, pre-existing conditions as well as experience of ill-health and other countries' medical systems with more resources than the UK.

I am usually quite an optimistic person. I have lived in various countries and taken risks by e.g. moving without job security etc. BUT I had a very bad feeling about this virus from the start.

I have asthma quite badly which means I have a lot of experience of lung infections and consequently experience and memories of suffering caused by that type of illness. This virus is worse.

So I'm not trying to be defeatist, more prudent.

I was thinking about the timescale for a vaccine and the possibility of mutation and/or infection spikes once the world starts to return to normal.

I don't mean restrictions like this, or Italy etc. Just that we could still be given care guides as and when there are infection spikes, maybe very localised but still on our collective radar.

I hope I'm wrong but wouldn't be surprised if, after this winter, next year, a vaccine is found, there continue to be sporadic restrictions announced

Ok. Well I believe that the scientific community are working on this hard and that there is a very good chance over the next few weeks we will be able to treat and cure it.

Yes a vaccine will be longer, but a treatment will be a complete game changer and right now that looks hugely likely.

As said. I do feel very sorry for people who don’t believe it and think this is two years or more. That must be a devastating thought. Is it possible, yes. Is it likely. I think all the evidence shows absolutely not. Even the scientists aren’t predicting that kind of apocalyptic Armageddon.

Ok. Well I believe that the scientific community are working on this hard and that there is a very good chance over the next few weeks we will be able to treat and cure it

I agree. There are apparently over 20 drugs in clinical or pre-clinical trials that showed promise in lab tests. Some are already licensed for other conditions, so the process is quicker. Alongside this, there are scientists all over the world testing a vaccine -that will take longer, but the process has started.
I am confident that, quite soon, we'll have a treatment that works for a majority of people.

I'm not sure I'd go as far as cure it in that timescale, treat it, yes. And when there is an antibody test well see a big difference.

But I still think there'll be rumblings for an extended time. Thinking of the influenza pandemic and patterns of breakout infections, mainly.

Oh, and there are also developments in antibody testing. Once we know who has already had this it will a) give us an idea of the % of asymptomatic people and b) allow some degree of normality back.

My husband is in Japan and he said it feels pretty much back to normal there. But people rally do need to stay in a bit more.

Also, if you are interested in some other Theories on the subject ...

www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-causes-effects-real-danger-agenda-id2020/5706153

As said. I do feel very sorry for people who don’t believe it and think this is two years or more. That must be a devastating thought. Is it possible, yes. Is it likely. I think all the evidence shows absolutely not. Even the scientists aren’t predicting that kind of apocalyptic Armageddon

I agree and I’m not sure why people are coming up with 2 years. No one has mentioned that in any press conference. Of course this thing could pop up periodically for a few years but if we have a vaccine and antibody test it won’t cause anywhere near this kind of disruption. As for people’s “bad feelings” well I’m sorry but that’s not really scientific is it? I’m not going to predict a lifetime of doom because someone on the internet has a “bad feeling”. It’s important to be cautious and prepared yet optimistic we can best this thing. You can be cautiously hopeful without being Pollyanna about things.

Op, to put it into context, the parameters are we can treat and cure this within a few weeks, to worst case, eighteen months, because no treatment is found and the vaccines take longer than they are currently tracking.

None of us can predict where on that curve it will be, we are not the experts. But it’s important to note, that some people are going way further than even the most pessimistic expert is suggesting. And to recognise they are doing that, for reasons of their own

The reality for me is I don’t think Boris would have given a time line if he didn’t believe it to be remotely possible. He’s many things but not an idiot. He also has more data than us.

His predictions on the twelve weeks seem cautious and in line with other countries who are also working treatments. Scientists globally are working together, and the who announced on Wednesday the global trials of these drugs and the global funding initiative they have named
“solidarity”.

Does it mean we will be out of the woods by July. No one is promising that, as no one is going to make false promises, apart from maybe trump, but there is no doubt that right now there are a number of different treatments being trialed on humans that appear to be successful from the initial data, some which treat the early stage and some which treat the second more serious stage. Different countries are trialling different drugs so globally we can find the best solution as quickly as possible.