How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

I think in early June they'll lift some restrictions but just to see how many cases will show up again after 14 days.

It will all depend on what happens in China. They have lifted some restrictions and people are coming out again (although wearing masks). So if they start seeing a rise again in cases we will know that's how it's going to pan out, with lock down, reduction of restrictions, lockdown and so on until we have a vaccine or it burns itself out.

SARS 1 burnt itself out but this (which is SARS-CoV-2) is more virulent, so probably won't do this, but at the moment we don't know what it will do.

Can we make Bluntness prime minister?

You are right, some people have been waiting for this forever and are now revelling in it.

I’m afraid so. I wonder if people behave this way IRL or if it’s just on internet forums? If I started prophesying war and apocalypse to my family and friends I’d be laughed out of town.

Thank you Bluntness and Odree for your take on it. Helped reassure me this morning.

Sorry that should read Ordree.

I really don’t know. I did hear that heat helps to kill the virus so maybe when warmer weather comes, things will start to ease. Everything feels like a bad dream at the moment, as if we’re in some sort of disaster movie. And I despair at how far too many people are behaving like animals. The greed & self absorption are truly shocking. And the ignorance.

I'm a general prepper. I haven't been fucking revelling in it. Most Preppers I know (albeit remotely and anonymously here and in the US) are as gobsmacked and anxious as anyone else. Just with more bits set up at home to cope logistically.

@bellinisurge when I said folk were revelling in it, I didn’t mean by having reserves of essentials put by, not at all. I meant the folk all over forums on Facebook who are basically yelling at everyone that the world is ending.

In terms of folk waiting for this their whole lives, I meant people who thrive on drama and clearly don’t have much else in their lives, who want to be the centre of attention by announcing all the worst news as loudly as possible. Sadly I know a few people like that (one said we’re all going to lose our jobs and get conscripted into the army ffs) and have had to mute them on Facebook. And will reconsider my friendship with them in the long term. Folk that think they’re in an episode of the Walking Dead and are frothing with excitement with no regard for the mental health of others.

Sorry if I caused any offence, I didn’t mean generally well prepared folk.

I find only instructive that since being called out the "18 months-ers" have not posted

I think there are two questions in play - how long with this shutdown occur and how long with coronavirus effects last and they are not the same thing.

Lockdowns are not about people dying its about protect the infrastructure of the health service as much as you can. That has to be balanced against the economy and people who make it through future. A lockdown on this scale just cant occur for 18 months the effects of that would equally bad. So it will be on and off - all the government modelling shows this. This one I think will be longer because we havent done it soon enough.

How long will it go on for - who knows. The economic and social effects of it will I suspect last 5-10 years for things to fully recover, but that is true even of economic breakdowns

The virus itself who knows, will it burn out, are a lot more people effected than shown, treatments come in vaccines they are the unknown. The max though if a vaccine can be done will be 18 months

What happens in China and also those areas such as Africa will be watched as well.

Easily for the rest of this year, into next year. Whether we'll have to self-isolate all that time, I don't know, that might come in waves.

You are right, some people have been waiting for this forever and are now revelling in it.

That's a terrible accusation to make. I am a prepper (began for Brexit) and I love post-apocalyptic fiction, but this is NOT any kind of fun and is very stressful, wondering if in several months' time some of the people I love (or indeed myself) might be dead. Hardly something to revel in.

It'll be a good while unless all countries take action. Too many people still carrying on as normal. All countries need to stop flights coming in, why the hell is Portugal still flying in and out planes ? Still lots of people going there even though the city is practically locked down. Once everyone takes this seriously and follows the guidelines we may not end up as bad as Italy.

CrunchyCarrot my last post explains what I meant by that. Waiting for doesn’t equal preparing in the event of.

It’s very naive to think there are anti viral treatments being tested that could ‘cure’ it. All of the treatments currently in clinical trials have been tried in China. None of them are a cure. A combination of them may lead to a reduction in overall harm. We will get better knowledge about which drugs can help which cases. This may reduce death rates and ease some health service burden of people are able to be released from hospital earlier. But there is no miracle cure about to be ready by July.

And the idea that there will be a vaccine ready by the end of the year fits with no medical timescales. If one of the early candidate vaccines is effective we should have one in about 18 months and the roll out of that will depend on many things.

This doesn’t mean the current situation will stay as it is. We’re close to getting an antibody test, which will make tracking the disease easier and mean people with immunity can return to more normal life. With better tracking restrictions will be eased where possible.

Easily for the rest of this year, into next year. Whether we'll have to self-isolate all that time, I don't know, that might come in waves.

It is possible that this will be the case. It is equally possible it will not be that long. If there is self isolation required for all that time then the governments requiring it will have to explain why the suicide deaths that will surely follow are preferable to other ones.

War?!!! Yeah good luck with that - no country will have the money or resources to spend on starting a war. Everyone will be in deep debt

In the 1930s the world was in a deep depression but there was a war nonetheless. Ironically enough the war was a massive boost to the economy.

www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

This is really interesting - what exactly is going to happen if lockdown in Italy doesnt flatten the curve.

The problem is I think is that we are going into this blind - we need to get the anitbody test out and really see what happens. I also think they are now saying at least 10% dont have a temperature which could mean a lot more cases

@blackforestcake War is very big business and the UK always does particularly well from arms supply. I also had the thought cross my mind that a war would ensue at some point.

That’s not scaremongering or revelling in anything, that’s just what happens when collapse of society occurs. Do some research instead of tearing strips off people who have the capacity to think critically and who understand economics and sociology. So many on MN are so deep in their self-delusion & normalcy bias they believe something will never happen, because it’s never happened to them before. But the facts are yes this could last 18 months and there could be civil unrest and there could be trouble over resources. Also, it might not all unravel and we might have a treatment and a vaccine. But you’re foolish and deluded if you’re discounting all possible outcomes.

About a week

I don't think it can carry on for too long because people will start to demand they be tested
it's ludicrous to expect people to stop their lives, destroy the economy, destroy everything that we have built up when it would be possible to test people and have precise data about who really needs to self isolate and who doesn't

When we model the progress of the disease no one factors in the possibility that it it will become attenuated with the time

I am certain it's over a week..m

@YouAreTheEggManIAmTheWalrus Not saying I think there's going to be a war (I don't) but just pointing out that "everyone's skint' is not a reason there can't be one.

I wrote out a big long post with my projections on. It was too grim, so I had to erase it.

I think this first wave will be over by the end of May at the latest. Earlier would be better.

We absolutely need to go into full lockdown. Preferably now. Definitely by Monday. If we wait until the end of March, we may see 10,000 deaths per day at the peak.

Once the first wave has passed, we need to lick our wounds and start all over again. But next time, we need to do it with testing, with contact tracing. We need to learn from our own mistakes, since we don't seem to be able to learn from other people's.