How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

Optimistically September but I think there will probably be a new spike in autumn, so more likely April/May 2021

We will be lucky to see it gone by 2021

I think until next March/April at the latest

June 2021

I've no idea but I feel so depressed by the idea of it going on for so long.

They are starting to explain on the news that we will go in and out of control measures for the whole next year. It will be a rolling cycle of rules and guidance. Relaxing for a few weeks then shutting everything down again for 6-10 weeks at a time. The govt gave themselves a huge amount of powers to do all this. Only Robert Peston seems to be tweeting... "Hey folks? Do you realise..?" about the govt powers.

I am the only person asking if this new 'normal' is the ONLY way. Do we have to destroy the economy? Is it too late to adopt the South Korea model instead??

Everyone out as normal in my town. Partner going for a nosey outside see if they're kicking out at 11. No one here has been taking it seriously.

We've been told to prepare for a minimum of 4 months, and could be 18 months.

I think it'll be around for a while but that the current social isolating restrictions will flatten the curve and in time our health systems will be less overwhelmed and able to deal with the numbers. I'd hope by summer work and socialising will be normal again and a vaccine in place by next flu season. Many resources will be thrown at this and the longer it goes on the more will be thrown to to crack it but of course other areas will experience a fall out from resources been diverted.

I’m telling myself they’ll be back at school at the start of next term, end April. I realise I am deluding myself but hey, it’s a happier place to be!

In my less optimistic moments I’m thinking June, after half term. If it lasts longer than that I will have to sell the children on eBay, sadly.

Atthebottomofthegarden

I think you need to be lot less optimistic tbh - at this rate September seems ambitious 😏

5 - 7 months to get it under control with isolation measures.

A year before a vaccine is found.

18 months to get back to some semblance of "normal".

I feel like this is going to be a factor for the entire year, to some extent, and probably beyond. My brain also hurts at the thought of how society will get itself back into something approaching a normal state once the virus starts to abate. Agree with the PP who mentioned a 'new normal' - I can't see how we could just snap back to how we were before.

I can also see a nationwide mental health crisis in the offing, we're on our way to that already. sigh

I am not sure. I think it may appear to be under better control as the summer arrives but then flare up again in autumn/winter unless there is a vaccine and we will still have measures in place.

I am sure over the coming weeks there will be social unrest and we will see police and army on the streets in some places to prevent it. I am dreading it.

We would be lucky to have a vaccine within a year. I think we will have an anti-viral treatment that work by late May/June. Every lab in the world is working on this.

@Atthebottomofthegarden I don't think you'll be the only one putting the kids on eBay this year!

3 months as a starter.

Possibly a war. Time will tell on that score.
Whaaat? Why do you say that?

I work for a university. We’re not expecting to admit students to the new academic year in September. That’s for lots of reasons. We’ve also been told to expect to move away from uni business and instead move towards volunteering in the nationwide ‘effort’. I can’t believe this is happening.

I have just ordered more paint, one tin came today for outside, two more large tins of gloss ordered for inside. Also ordered stuff from Wickes for a garden project DH is doing, giving up a bit on being able to do more normal outings type activities for the foreseeable future and don't want difficulty buying paint later after the toilet roll and food saga

They won’t keep everything shut for 18 months. Firstly people would tire of it and start breaking the rules and it would be counterproductive. Secondly the damage to the economy would be off the scale. What they will do is restrict for 6 weeks or so. Then relax for a few weeks then restrict then relax in a rolling cycle. That’s what they said on the news. There will be a series of restrictions then freedom so the NHS doesn’t get totally overwhelmed. This will go on until the vaccine is available.

@cushioncovers at the moment - me too. It depends on how many people are affected though. Uncertainty also affects the financial markets, so the government need to test, test, test to see how many people are immune so we know what to expect.

I don't think the problem will be over BY ANY MEANS in 12 weeks. But I suspect Boris was referring to this graph in the Imperial College paper from Monday. Even in the best-case scenario, the model predicts not being able to flatten the curve ALL THAT MUCH, so even with the most stringent measures in place the demand for critical care beds is already starting to fall in 12 weeks. If we did nothing, demand for those beds would be falling by mid-May...

But of course if you look at the red line at the bottom, representing actual capacity, you can see that the reason ICU beds won't be so overstretched by July is because, tragically, a lot of people will have already died of covid-19 after being turned away in April/May/June. UGH.

I think a war may come of this too. Maybe not this year but I do think in the next year or so.

I’d like to think that it will be over for June but I have a feeling this is going to be the start of something terrible.

If China already has no new cases surely it can't last longer than the next 3/4 months?

I agree, @showmethegin. People are allowed out there now and there are no new cases.