How long are you expecting this to go on for?

[DennisReynoldsDuster]

Just curious. Friends seem to think it will all be fine again by May, I kind of feel like we will be lucky if we are “back to normal” by Christmas.

And by “this” I mean businesses shut and social distancing etc

Op asked a question. People answered it. Not sure why anyone thinks that’s being dramatic or revelling in anything. My answer is 18 months. Life will be back to normality in 18 months. In my view, based on what I know now. That isn’t suggesting that nothing could change that would alter that expectation.

Some people prefer to only look very short term as looking further scares them. Nothing wrong with that. They will prefer to think everything will be ok soon - like people did with WW2 when they said it would all be over by Christmas.

Others prefer to look at worst case and mentally prepare for that, possibly because then it can only be better than what they expect. Because maybe not having that potential better outcome scares them. Nothing wrong with that either.

Doesn’t mean they want it to drag on. Just that they prefer to look further and then hope for better rather than expect better and then cope if it’s worse.

Just depends what works best for you. Don’t take it so personally. You’re allowed to think it’ll all be ok next week. Nobody is stopping you. And I can think it’ll all be ok in 18 months. Nobody can stop me.

The op asked a simple question. There isn’t a right or wrong answer. So why are so many of you getting so attacky? If you’re scared to look past a week maybe move onto another thread rather than being so over emotional about the views of others.

Personally I think it’s important to point out to the op when people are going much further than the worst case estimates.

You believe the worst case, that no cure will be found and a vaccine will be longer than the experts say. And that’s ok, hard for you but you’re the one who needs to live with that thought.

Others are going further than you. And that’s ok too. People have their own reasons for their reactions. But it’s important when the op asks that questions are responded to with a basis in reality as to what’s occurring, and not just some form of pessimistic fantasy in someone’s head.

Prepare yourself for 2 years, hope for a few months

The op asked a simple question. There isn’t a right or wrong answer. So why are so many of you getting so attacky

No one is being “attacked” -people are disagreeing with the 2 year thing because pp have stated this is what has been talked about in press conferences when this is not correct.

Of course, if you want to believe this is going to go on for years and years and years you have every right to think that. But that is not what is being said by the scientific community.

If thinking it wont end for years helps you get through this then crack on - we all deal with it in our own way. Btw not a single person has stated this will all be over by “next week” so I’m not sure where that came from!

Have a look at the PDF attached on this link it makes for VERY intresting reading its a bit complex and long winded but its showing that two pretty common drugs are haveing effective results on the Coronavirus:)

www.mediterranee-infection.com/hydroxychloroquine-and-azithromycin-as-a-treatment-of-covid-19/

I also don’t think it’s attacking to point out that people are predicting much longer than even the worst case scientists are putting forward and that there is absolutely no basis for their predictions.

On one thread someone was even predicting up to fifteen years, some people are predicting life will never go back to normal, one oddly enough even predicted world war would occur due to it.

We could easily take this as scare mongering, or accept that these people have their own reasons for their thoughts that have no basis currently in reality. But it’s certainly not attacking to point out that their views are extreme and not based on any form of reality we see today.

Of course people have differing views, but there have been massive speculative statements and leaps in logic here. That's what bluntness and others are pointing out. For instance, where's this come from?
I’m surprised about the universities not being back in September.
That seems to be a reaction to ONE poster earlier who works for a university having said they were told this. Doesn't mean it's going to happen across the sector! How would anyone know yet?
I agree with posters saying science will move fast on this. There is a shared incentive across the global scientific community to work together on this and it's now everyone's top priority. The
Chinese did their bit by quickly sequencing the genome for the virus and sharing this. I think there's a good chance of treatment soon and a vaccine faster than we might think. Just stay indoors in the meantime!

The thing is nobody knows at the moment. Everyone is speculating.

I agree with Butterymuffin's conclusion: "Just stay indoors in the meantime!"

At least another six months, but realistically a year.

My guess is 12 weeks from now school back, then businesses back to usual. Keep social distancing and no travelling.

Spring 2021 mass vaccinations?

But universities are preparing for this going on for more than a year.

Drug development takes time, even in a pandemic.

Treatments may come and that would be great. But they wouldn’t shorten the duration of the outbreak, just reduce the impact. And providing to many millions without forward planning would be difficult.

So on the balance of probability it’s more like than not to be 18 months. Even with all that taken into account.

But I’d be delighted if it’s all sorted by September. And even more delighted if everyone I care about survives.

@MMN123 where have you heard that about universities? The one I work in is aiming to recommence face to face teaching in late September as usual.

Why are people saying ‘look to China to predict how this will progress’? Since when has China been known for its honest reporting?

Information released from China and the US will solely be aimed at continuing their cock-slinging match. Who built the biggest hospitals, saved the economy most, beat the virus quickest etc.

I wouldn’t be believing any reports of no new domestic cases.

universities are preparing for this going on for more than a year

This has been said where? And by how many universities, or which body that represents them?

But universities are preparing for this going on for more than a year

Link please? Where are all the universities saying this?

Look up what the clinical trials currently are. There is no ‘cure’ coming in 12 weeks. That is not what was said at any press conference, except possibly one by Donald Trump. There are potentially more effective treatments, one in particular. But they have all already been used in China. They’re not miracles. The 18 month timescale for the vaccine is based on one of the current candidate vaccines working. That’s the minimum timescale from the stage we’re at now to being able to use a vaccine on the general population. It’s not somehow defeatist to look at what is scientifically possible. If a vaccine is available worldwide in 18 months then global science will have done brilliantly and moved faster than ever before.

What will allow us to change from the situation in less than 18 months is the antibody test, together with changes in healthcare capacity. Those things are achievable. But we don’t know the exact timescales for any of it.

People asked why I said 18 months and I said that is my expectation based on what I know now. I know universities are preparing for longer. As they should. That doesn’t mean they aren’t also preparing for September. And as I said before, on balance, I choose to think it will be longer rather than shorter. It doesn’t mean I’m right and you’re wrong. It’s simply my answer to ops question.

@chipotle totally agree

I hoping it'll be dealt with by September, but I imagine that's wishful thinking

Waiting to be shot down on this but I have a yr 11 DS who has obviously seen the impact on his GCSE's and it would be good to imagine he'll start his A Levels with things pretty much normal. Totally selfish opinion I admit, but I can't avoid that feeling.

In the meantime we won't be going out in the hope we do our bit!

So they ARE preparing to go back at the end September then? Your statement made it sound the opposite.

Seems like some folks are determined to believe worst case and ignore the science. And that’s fine, there is nothing anyone can say or do that will convince them other wise, I can’t even be bothered arguing the non sensical points being made any more. But I do worry about some people’s mental health as they may believe this scare mongering as some form of fact, and it may make this so much worse for them.

But stopping this scare mongering, this overly pessimistic view, this ignoring of scientific progress, that can’t be stopped. Some People are determined to think the worst, for reasons that are all their own.

The op asked a simple question. There isn’t a right or wrong answer. So why are so many of you getting so attacky
I don't agree either that pointing out evidence supporting different views is attacky. I also think that it is worth confronting the possibility that there are people who, at some level, possibly even unbeknown to themselves, quite like the idea of being the one soothsayer with the ability and courage to confront an awful reality, even if that reality is nothing more than conjecture. It is on nothing like the same scale obviously but I also recall acquaintances delighting in my imminent final exams at university and telling me how awful and stressful a time Inwa bound to have. There is a similar but not often talked about phenomenon when a baby arrives in a family with one breadwinner who perhaps doesn't love their job, whereby a certain type of person just LOVES to remind the breadwinner of the fact they now have a dependent for 18+ years in order to drag them down. I don't think it is unreasonable to suggest that among the ordinary speculation some of this mentality-those who take pleasure in inducing fear or depression on others, often as a means of control-is likely to have seeped through here.

@ordree

I agree. There have been people saying life will never be normal again and this will start a war. I honestly have no idea where this is coming from. But it’s not attacky to remind those people that wild speculation like this is unhelpful at the current time. As bluntness said, those people clearly have psychological motivations of their own to need to catastrophise scenarios like this but I do feel it’s unhelpful at a time when everyone’s mental health is rather fragile. I imagine those people donning sandwich boards which say “the end is nigh” on them lol
Of course they can honk this if they want by what on Earth are they hoping to achieve by posting such things? It’s really quite irresponsible in my opinion.

we may see 10,000 deaths per day at the peak
is that what you see as likely for the UK, an increase of 2 orders of magnitude over and above Italy?

@MMN123 why do you choose to believe it will be longer?

Are universities preparing for students not starting or a stop/start year. Because they are different and all the modelling goes for a stop/start year or 18 months not a completly stopped one