So are the figures from China correct

[Petetongue]

Because the death rate is approximately 3,300 and yet we are told 20,000 would be a good outcome. Why the massive discrepancy?

Anybody have any ideas on this.

Because China was locked down in a way we can’t do.

They put strict measures in place from 25/26th January and also required anyone with symptoms to go to the hospital to be tested. also good at tracing contacts.

It’s complicated.
China wasn’t fully reporting probably.
U.K. isn’t testing so no idea of numbers or mortality- except deaths as acute admission to hospitals.
Different reactions initially.
Different demographic
Different management of identified cases.

The WHO press conference this afternoon was encouraging countries to loo at what South Korea is doing to manage the situation

Yes, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Macau, all managing better than Europe.

China is still totally locked down now - when the social isolation rules are even a little relaxed, it will kick back off again. Then they'll likely need to tamp down again - and hopefully each of these 'waves' will be smaller, as more of the people in each zone are immune.

Let’s see:

1. China locked down really early on;
2. has way more capacities in healthcare system than U.K.;
3. built two large hospitals to isolate those diagnosed and with mild symptoms to cut off cluster cases within family;
4. sent thousands of doctors from all major cities to the red zone to race with death;
5. community and social works checked almost every single residents on the block to rule out suspected cases;

So if anything the death rate reported was actually underestimated, without sufficient intervention (such as Italy).

U.K. and Sweden don’t even diagnose people anymore, so if we were to point fingers on the lack of transparency and fudging statistics... shrug

Not true that China is still totally locked down.
Restrictions started to be relaxed a couple of weeks ago. Restaurants in my area are open and office workers went back on 24th Feb.
(Jiangsu province)

Wuhan is still locked down (or was a few days ago)

China will report want China wants people - us and their own people - to see. Theres no way to know how accurate they are.
Looking at Italy gives a better idea. They have gone from a couple of cases just four weeks ago to almost

My colleagues in Shanghai are back in the office two days a week, life is returning slowly to normal for them.

China probably underreported cases but not on the same scale as in Europe.

You are entitled to an opinion about the human rights questions raised by how China dealt with the virus, but I'm finding a lot of the China posts on here borderline racist. China and a number of other Asian countries have handled this much better than Europe, with fewer cases and less loss of life.

The Chinese gave us 6 weeks to get on top of this and we squandered it.

Yes, Wuhan is, but the whole country is not totally locked down which is what you claimed.

to almost 3000 deaths. 475 of them today. Its increasing every day, and they reckons theres weeks more to come.

Very interesting, what did North Korea do that was so good and are we too late to follow. I understand that China as a communist country has more control over the people.

It’s Taiwan and South Korea that we should be looking at. I think the key difference is that those societies are more collective in their outlook than we are and the public will accept greater infringement of privacy, such as mobile phone tracking, if it’s believed to be for the greater good. If that sort of measure had been suggested here even 3-4 weeks ago people would have hit the roof.

Sorry, I meant south Korea.

China did not allow for an individual interpretation off the restrictions. The uk govt has been rather vague with what social distancing involves hence lots of threads asking if they can walk the dog, go to cinema etc.
In my city everything was closed (except supermarket and pharmacy) and we had clear directions on what we could do and penalties for non compliance.

www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-have-dropped-sharply-south-korea-whats-secret-its-success

Behind its success so far has been the most expansive and well-organized testing program in the world, combined with extensive efforts to isolate infected people and trace and quarantine their contacts

Yes, I saw a news article about phone tracking which tracks contacts of contaminated people. I would be more than happy to have it if it stopped the current situation but I expect I'm in the minority.

China is also using a phone app where you have either a green or red qr code that is scanned If you have come from an infected area your code is red so no access eg to metro.

It could also be that there is an intrinsic resistance to the virus in those areas given their previous exposure to Coronavirus-related diseases.

Also of course you cant trust the Chinese figures, on pretty much anything, it's a totalitarian regime built on subterfuge

Vietnam’s response is considered good too. But the reason why SK is considered a preferred approach is because it has an ageing population similar to Europe but managed to use technology to trace mobile phones etc to identify where the victims had travelled and then communicating it back to people so they could isolate or get tested

@Petetongue
China has the advantage of having a lot of people mgt procedures in place eg you cannot board a train or even buy a train ticket without your passport or identity card. Extending these methods is therefore relatively straightforward eg using identity cards to control access to compounds.

Mistigri
"The Chinese gave us 6 weeks to get on top of this and we squandered it"

Spot on