So are the figures from China correct

[Petetongue]

Because the death rate is approximately 3,300 and yet we are told 20,000 would be a good outcome. Why the massive discrepancy?

China has done an amzing job with containing it. So has Hong Kong. They have proven its possible to slow this down. I would hate to be sitting here, looking at Italy, and not have China/HK/Macau to show its is possible to slow this down.

It will take 12-18 months to develop a vaccine. I think we need to face the fact that we might be locked down until that happens. But there is no doubt that it will happen, and hopefully sooner than later.

But so far Africa has held off. Jack Ma sent today, thousands of masks/test kits/ hazmat suits to each of the 54 African countries. If this takes off in Africa, it will be a global catastrophe. Millions dont even have clean water, never mind soap.

Thank you, very interesting comments. Yes Africa would be catastrophic. It appears that there is some good news coming out of China, which are green shoots of hope.

Taiwan has just had 100 new cases appear in the last week or so, and closed their schools again today.

The "massive discrepancy" is purely because the epidemic is not over in China yet, it has just slowed because of the restrictive measures. As the measures are lifted, transmission of the virus will go up again. There will be far more deaths in China than 3000 by the end of the pandemic.

I thought Taiwan had 100 cases in total, not 100 new cases.

The Chinese gave us 6 weeks to get on top of this and we squanderedit

And six weeks is sooooo not everything China gave us.

I hardly think that China’s effort are to be applauded since we are now in the grip of a global pandemic as a result of their failure to report back in November/December. The Italian outbreak coincides suspiciously with Chinese New Year when there would have been a great deal of international movement of Chinese expats.

willdo not sure if that's true but even if it were, I don't think it takes away from what they've sacrificed and what they've done.

Can you imagine the reaction over here if (or anywhere in the western world, really) if we tried to implement the mobile phone tracking and enforced temp reporting? Hell, people are getting pissy about not being able to go to the pub. They'd be foaming at the mouth.

I think we should all recognise their efforts.

And be appalled we didn't take the head-start they have us.

Most of South Korea's cases have been in younger people than in Italy

The "massive discrepancy" is purely because the epidemic is not over in China yet, it has just slowed because of the restrictive measures. As the measures are lifted, transmission of the virus will go up again. There will be far more deaths in China than 3000 by the end of the pandemic.

We don't know yet. There are hardly any cases in China now, and the ones there are, are imported from outside China.

I think it highly likely that deaths in both Europe and the US will be an order of magnitude, perhaps two orders of magnitude, higher than in China.

The death rate from Italy is definitely indicating that China have not been particularly honest about their death rate.

Does it indicate that or does it indicate that much stricter measures are necessary to control the virus?

As a China resident, regardless of govt and propaganda bullshit, I am in awe of the sacrifices people have made : from medical workers to Those that work in supermarkets.
They have lost friends and relatives to this virus. Now is the time to learn from China in terms of managing this virus. (And HK , Taiwan and Singapore) plenty of time for some China govt bashing when this is all over.

It’s far from over yet.
I think China will have more waves of outbreaks as they reopen.

China lies and arrests people for accurate reporting 🤷🏻‍♀️

I know someone who works a lot in China and said that the reason it hasn’t really spread much in the country is that the majority of Chinese people who work in factories, wake up, work, eat, sleep and then repeat every day. They don’t travel like we do. Obviously the factory owners and Managers may do and as Northern Italy is an Indistrial heartland it is likely that this is why is become widespread in Italy.

Definitely.
The same thing is happening in HK. Numbers are going up due to people bringing the virus back in so quarantine has been extended to all arrivals and dh told me today that flexible home working has been reintroduced from next week.

In a police state, control measures which are impossible in a liberal democracy can be implemented. Official figures are unlikely to be an accurate representation of reality. And they are unlikely to be challenged.

As usual all the China experts are on this thread..

People in China take instructions seriously (I'm not going into why). When the health care workers etc knocked on doors every four days, people were sitting with their dead relatives, even a six year old with his grandfather. He'd been told not to go out, so didn't.

They're just completely different people. But likewise because sometimes they don't act without instructions, they've died unnecessarily during natural disasters and there's been cases were they'll ignore people around them who need help.

But i don't think that the full truth will be told from a lot of similar countries.

Can you imagine the reaction over here if (or anywhere in the western world, really) if we tried to implement the mobile phone tracking and enforced temp reporting? Hell, people are getting pissy about not being able to go to the pub. They'd be foaming at the mouth

Precisely. This is the difference between the liberal democracies of Europe. And China.

I would take compulsory temp checking over what I saw today: groups of children playing together and adults congregating in the centre of town.

I would certainly do compulsory temp checks. I believe that 90% of the population are caring and will do whatever is needed to eradicate this virus, regardless of what impact it has on their way of life unfortunately I think the other 10% are the ones buying ridiculous amounts of food, do not respect social isolation and 10% of 6 million people is a lot.

60 million