Covid-19 Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread

[Barracker]

I thought some of us might find it useful to have a Mumsnet thread specifically dedicated to tracking, discussing and analysing the national and global Covid-19 data.

Direct sources of data include:
The UK govt daily update
and
worldometer global data

Today's UK figures have not yet been released. Yesterday was as follows:

UK
March 14th 2020:
Cases: 1,140
Deaths: 21

This is similar to Italy's figures on the date February 28th/29th.
Their March 1st data= cases:1577 deaths:41

I'll add today's numbers when they are released.

The countries that got outbreaks earlier are bound to be hit a bit harder because of less awareness at the very beginning.

Even though we were slow off the mark with official measures and there has been some crap compliance there was some general awareness among the sensible here earlier in the outbreak than some other countries just because we had a slight head start.

For example before anything official other than hand washing was in place some people were avoiding physical contact, companies were stopping international travel and starting work from home.

Some Individuals and organisations did take their own steps before the government caught up.

It wk t make an enormous difference but it may have been some small help.

Two weeks ago the dude from the viral Medium article appeared on Channel 4’s ‘Coronavirus - ‘Are We Doing Enough?’ news special:

The guest in the studio is talking about the UK government’s ‘herd immunity’ stuff and denying lock down is necessary, or at least saying it’s not necessary for sometime. Tomas, of Medium fame is on the video link. Look at the body language in these screen grabs.

I think this was the point where lots of Brits started to go ‘hold on a minute, we can’t trust this lot, they want our grannies to die to protect the economy’ and started self motivated social distancing.

(eg this is day 14 of being at home with my kid.)

What will be interesting is if we now see a bounce back up, where all the rebel-brits looked at us cautious-brits, looked at the sunshine and carried on with things like that Stereophonics gig and Cheltenham races:

www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8151681/Comedian-Lee-Mack-tests-positive-coronavirus-attending-Cheltenham-Festival.html

This is a tweet I screenshotted to send to my DH two weeks ago today.

Regarding the impact of Cheltenham two weeks ago:

Anyone who caught CV at this event will have begun showing symptoms just over a week ago (average time from contracting the virus to showing symptoms = five days). If it takes an average of 18 days to die from CV, then we should see any deaths caused by the mass gathering at Cheltenham reflected in the death toll figures in around nine days time.

I really would love the UK to have started flattening the curve but I think it's a blip. I agree with the Cheltenham thing. It sounds to me like Spain, where there was a massive demonstration in Madrid on 8 March for Intl Women's Day and a 9000-strong political rally, with numbers now exploding a couple of weeks later.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/26/spain-coronavirus-response-analysis This is interesting about Spain, but many of the same things apply to the UK.

I think it’s a blip too, a temporary pull back before the ‘everyone is overreacting’ backlash began at the weekend.

Would love to be wrong though.

Our nearest hospital is now appealing for snacks and toiletries for the staff. They are definitely planning for emergency sleepovers, let’s hope they are in hotels, not at desks or on floors (as it was in some Chinese hospitals).

metro.co.uk/2020/02/03/exhausted-coronavirus-doctors-pictured-sleeping-floors-death-toll-hits-361-12177392/

I agree with BentBastard about us making small changes earlier than other countries due to our advantage of it hitting us a bit later. About a month ago my kids were doing the elbow bump thing as a greeting, and I asked them what it was about. It seemed like something and nothing then, and I can't believe it was only a month ago.

Lies, damn lies and statistics!

Interesting data here, although only up to week 11 (15/3) will be watching with interest as more is released, they are always a couple of weeks behind:
www.euromomo.eu/

Listen to analysis summary at the beginning of this news report:

www.ukcolumn.org/ukcolumn-news/uk-column-news-25th-march-2020

Have you seen on Twitter that they are talking about how the government are saying they need permission from the family to include their loved one in the figures?

Also, I’ve seen this on there...

@Utterlybutterly8 in my hospital everyone who needs admission and has a fever, cough or shortness of breath gets tested. So sometimes it’s obviously a urine infection or whatever and you still swab. But there are lots of people who we have an index of suspicion for (fever and productive cough say) who turn out to have something else (flu, pneumonia). We’re not testing asymptomatic people but I would say we have a low index of suspicion to test, as it’s really important not to miss any atypical positive people as we don’t want to spread it around the wards.

Why was that 18 year old not recorded, but other deaths with comorbidities have been?Anyone know? Are there specific parameters that need to be met for a death to count?

Can anyone confirm death numbers for yesterday were are low as initially thought? Also anyone got an updated world graph?

I don't understand why the DoH says it needs permission before including any given death in the stats. If they're not naming anyone, what data or confidentiality breach do they suggest is taking place?

The numbers yesterday were only half a says worth

*days

The numbers yesterday were only half a days worth

So we can expect a spike in the figures today then.

Yes or possibly tomorrow because I did read something that suggested they may not be ready yet. It's some kind of crossover day whatever that entails

According to Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt, that is because the government is changing the way it is compiling the figures.

Sienna Rodgers
@siennamarla
Well, this is very interesting from @nicholaswatt – the govt is changing the way it is releasing death figures, which “may not actually be the deaths that have taken place over the last 24 hrs” as family consent is now required

I don't think changing the way deaths are recorded is going to inspire confidence in the gov .:

More news reports of people dying in self isolation at home, too.

The spokesman confirmed that the way UK coronavirus deaths are recorded and made public is changing (see 11.07am), but he was unable to give details of how. He said Public Health England is moving to a different reporting time. Yesterday was “a cross-over day” in the way they were recording the numbers, he said. But he was unable to explain what would change

www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2020/mar/26/uk-coronavirus-live-news-updates-self-employed-rishi-sunakhospital-car-parking-charges-waived-for-nhs-staff-in-england.

Belfastlive, Gloucestershirelive and another site I can't remember have reported possible cases after Cheltenham, in fact, two members of staff are confirmed cases. .

No country is reporting deaths in the same way. This is always going to be difficult in the final analysis.

An 104 year old dies, she happens to test positive for Covid-19 - what caused her death? She would have had a high probability of dying within weeks/months anyway. So death by extreme old age, heart gave out naturally, or Covid-19?

An 18 year old dies, they have had multiple health issues all their lives, and not expected to reach adulthood, high probability of dying with months/years - what caused his death? Natural causes due to multiple co-morbidities, or Covid-19?

Then you have the actual deaths of Covid-19 - previously healthy, no known additional health issues, good weight and fitness. Death by Covid-19, high probability.

I don't understand why the DoH says it needs permission before including any given death in the stats. If they're not naming anyone, what data or confidentiality breach do they suggest is taking place?

me neither Judy

I don't understand why Spain allowed hairdressers to remain open during a Pandemic of an airborne virus.

I would have thought that being in an enclosed space with haidryers blowing all around would be a perfect environment to encourage spread.

Don't know if they are still open but they were as of 17th March.

I am raging at the government today. They should at the very least be able to explain their methodology. They are hiding the facts. It is totally immoral.