Omg. The next step in the strategy. And if we all stick together it may work

[Bool]

Next step in UK strategy. Lock down all the over 70s (and other immunocompromised - kids / adults) for 4 months. Lock them down. Then make it illegal to close schools. That means we gain immunity to the virus as a population and keeps the beds open for the unusual cases that are not foreseen.

I don’t think the op has to spend hours thinking it through

If the govt are introducing the policy she is just starting a thread on it

@maddening - and how? Who’s going to pay the missing salaries and mortgages and bills? Because I cannot see that in the glorious Cummings’s plan (won’t say BoJo because he’s just a puppet).

That will not be realistically and across the board enforced. I mean seriously how in actual hell are they going to manage the carers going in and out (and no barrier care is unlikely to protect entirely ) .

Fair enough I take it back that it was the OP's idea but their staunch support of it as the categorically right thing to do that seems so simple and obvious has clearly ignored any of the reality.

I admit it irritates me because the OP and others speak as if carers dont exist and are non entities , bloody great group of people that Is being ignored. As if care if elderly people who need care support just happens by magic and not by a hardworking group of people that are now as we speak working in tough conditions as the care homes are losing people to the virus (as in them being off work so short staffed ) ,operating under strict isolation in a lot of cases, but hey let's ignore that human impact shall we because apparently carers aren't real people are they???

Oh screw it I'm hiding this thread before I get even more angry, this is why I shouldn't mumsnet late at night

21 people didn't die (of cv) today!

@Shinyletsbebadguys I worked in a care home. For years. I don’t know the individual complexities of it. I am talking at a population level. I am afraid otherwise.

If the govt are introducing the policy she is just starting a thread on it

Fair enough, but it would be nice if OP used some common sense in discussing the policy and give more thought to how they word their posts

@UserV

I did not mean to single you out from others, I had not seen the other comments. I should really read the full thread so do apologise there

Carers would have to either still go in (maybe with regular testing) - not perfect but exposure to far fewer people compared to being out and about, or they would need to find a way to do residential care for those who needed it. Their needs won't vanish but they won't be better protected by not being isolated.

Sorry, this is misguided theory. The theory of herd immunity works on the basis that the herd majority becomes immune by catching the disease and making antibodies that make them immune. This herd immunity is normally carried out by vaccine. Without this, you have no way of safely increasing the herd immunity because 20% of the herd that you are suggesting should get ill to develop this immunity end up in ICU. Without ICU most of this 20% would die. The present govt plan doesn't have legs as you cannot have a delay process that the govt just suggests they are implementing just states wash your hands and carry on. the govt has allowed behavioural science to overtake virological and other directly applicable science.

This.

The overwhelming scientific consensus is that you take action early to fight the virus, with the aim of protecting as many of your citizens as you can. You don't just throw people to the wolves and lock up the elderly for months on end because you think you might achieve herd immunity. It's dangerous and has been called out as such.

Give it a few days and the UK will backtrack and follow what everyone else is doing.

@sakura7 which country should we follow ?

Can anyone link to stats on ICU need by age?

people just dont get it...

Containment has failed. there appear to be three options now:

1. do nothing. huge amounts of people will die. society may well break down. there will be no carers going in. there wont be dentists to go to. chaos. this is end of the world stuff. all the little concerns about schools and isolation are meaningless (this is the iran model)
2. shut everything down other than the most essential, eg healthcare professionals, carers to the disabled, utility workers for months, maybe even a year until there is a vaccine. people will still die but much less. the economy will tank and it will be a struggle to recover. it may become hard to keep civil society going, there may be shortages of foodstuffs. vunerable people who live alone but dont have formal care may well struggle as they wont be able to have thier usual informal family support etc. great emotial damage to all those who live alone and children who will be locked inside for months (call this the wuhan model)
3. isolate the vulnerable to protect them and the rest of us solider on trying to keep the country going. again less deaths than 1 but maybe more than 2. crucially the non isolated can support the isolated by food drops etc. care homes can consider if possible isolating any staff that volunteer in the home with them so that they are fully protected. hopefully in four months or so emerge from this state and the virus wont respread (uk model)

there all pretty shit and if we get through this this will be the defining time of our lives like the world wars were for our grandparents.

model three, the one discussed here is imo the most humane of the models, it dosent abandon the vunerable it asks the rest of the population to take a risk to protect them, the absolute opposite

Bool have you been following the news outside of the UK at all? Countries all over Europe are taking real tangible action and all are following a similar pattern. It starts with closing the schools and banning mass gatherings. The most seriously impacted countries have the most drastic measures.

Yep Really

@Really12345 thank you. I am being called selfish for even suggesting option 3.

@sakura7 yes I have. I have family in Italy, the Netherlands and friends in Spain, France and Denmark. So tell me which model you would wish to follow?

And let me tell you. The people I know from those countries are looking at the UK and saying ooooo they actually have a plan.

Right now there's not much evidence that any of the approaches have worked. They're not far enough through the process to really assess it.

Really12345

You know it's not only elderly and vulnerable people who can get seriously ill and die from this? You want the majority of the population to risk their health and their lives in order to protect the economy?

Economics recover. Dead people don't.

What about people like me, who's mother is undergoing cancer treatment which will only extend her life by a few months? Am I supposed to leave my scared, distressed mother alone in her final months?

They're very similar models Bool so I don't know why you're making out like they're so different from each other. Any of them would be infinitely better than the UK plan, which is the clear outlier.

Really12345 sums it up very well a few posts above. I do worry about how this is going to affect people though. We have a friend who is high risk (60s with diabetes and various other risk factors) who has chosen to self-isolate for the last month in order to protect himself, and he's fine but you can tell he's got major cabin fever.

My parents are talking about voluntarily distancing themselves from others (fortunately we can still Skype regularly) but my Dad's still planning on going out cycling on his own which will hopefully be low risk and keep him sane. He's only just turned 70. They're not thrilled at the prospect but what else can you do now that it is spreading around the globe? Shutting down schools and getting people to work from home won't halt this thing now.

ok so we follow the rest of Europe then because clearly they are doing something better

The people I know from those countries are looking at the UK and saying ooooo they actually have a plan

I'm in SE Asia, and i can assure you I'm looking at the UK as fucking insane.

@DarkMutterings and how is SE Asia looking at Spain and France and Italy?

What a fucking stupid idea.