People don’t realize young and health will also die

[Firespider]

Hi, I am Chinese and have been in the UK for 10 years. I have read through lots of the threads here and been surprised that people think only old and vulnerable will die from Covid-19. Truth is 15% will need oxygen, 5% will need ventilation. Many of them are young. If no treatment is provided large part of these patient will die. That’s what happened in Wuhan and is happening in Italy. The reason we only see death of old patients I the UK now is because the average course from symptoms onsite to death is 17 days. Young patient will stick longer. Mild cases range from slightly cough to pneumonia! The word pneumonia itself is serious enough. I am very worried about the government’s action.

Truth is 15% will need oxygen, 5% will need ventilation.

It’s estimated that there are currently around 10,000 cases in the U.K., by which reckoning we should have 1500 on oxygen and 500 on ventilation.

This doesn’t seem to be the case.

Where are you getting those numbers from?

I don't know about die but I know a lot of 'young' and 'healthy' will be in hospital for weeks and suffering a lot. It's not 80+ already on deathbed.

But I ageee it's 39 and didn't know had an underlying condition, normal
40 year old who occasionally smokes, unlucky 52 year old. They will all be in deep trouble.

It's shocking and scary that people still don't realise this.

Can you please back up this with some figures. It is not what I have read. Thanks.

The numbers are from who.

Can you link to your source?

We're moving this over to the Coronavirus topic now.

The government is emphasising the elderly/ underlying health conditions point to keep people calm, but unfortunately it's making some people think this isn't serious for them. I've seen a number of people on herr saying why don't all the over 60s go into isolation and let younger people get on with normal life.

OP, I think what you've written is about right, from what I've read of the official stats.

Many people are so frightened that they're becoming angry at any details of the reality of it and anyone who attempts to discuss that reality.

Lots of us know what's coming. We're largely keeping our heads down.

Yes they kept emphasising this on bbc news earlier, when reading the statements from hospitals about todays deaths. 'Underlying conditions' 'you can see the pattern here'.
I understand not panicking the public but people have a massive shock to come, when they realise this will effect them, either directly or indirectly and that this really isn't the fuss about nothing that they have been led to believe.

are the younger people in this country healthy though? we have one of the biggest obesity problems in the world

I thought it was underlying conditions rather than age. So it is the case that the older people had more of them, therefore more cases, and also less immunity.

I do feel the NHS advice is a bit vague on when people should seek more help, just telling us most people manage at home etc is not very helpful. When to ask for assistance, if breathless?

I do think you need to give more info really

Who situation report 46. I read it a few days ago. I cannot insert a screenshot.

For COVID-19, data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation. These fractions of severe and critical infection would be higher than what is observed for influenza infection.

I havent seen anywhere that it's based in age.

It's based on general health and underlying conditions. Or which elderly people are far more likely to have poor health AND underlying conditions.

I think it's been very clear that the main issue that makes people vulnerable is health issues. Not age as such.

From BBC guide

How deadly is coronavirus?
The proportion dying from the disease appears low (between 1% and 2%) - but the figures are unreliable.
Thousands are being treated but may go on to die - so the death rate could be higher. But it may also be lower if lots of mild cases are unreported.
A World Health Organization examination of data from 56,000 patients suggests:
6% become critically ill - lung failure, septic shock, organ failure and risk of death
14% develop severe symptoms - difficulty breathing and shortness of breath
80% develop mild symptoms - fever and cough and some may have pneumonia

Older people, and those with pre-existing medical conditions (such as asthma, diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure), are more likely to become severely ill. The data from China also suggests that men are at slightly higher risk of dying from the virus than women.
Treatment relies on keeping the patient's body going, including breathing support, until their immune system can fight off the virus. Work to develop a vaccine is under way.

Page 2 under Q. How are COVID-19 and influenza viruses different?

Pneumonia to me doesn't seem a 'mild symptom'

It’s from a Chinese study jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130

Only 1% of those cases were asymptomatic. We don’t know what proportion of the actual population will be asymptomatic.

Italy has an extremely high death rate, Germany a low one.

I don’t think you can assume those figures will apply here.

More advice here:

Patients with mild symptoms - such as a new continuous cough or a high temperature above 37.8C- should self-isolate at home for at least seven days, according to the latest advice issued by Public Health England on Friday.

Community teams will keep an eye on them if need be.

But people are being advised not to ring NHS 111 to report their symptoms unless they are worried. They should also not go to their GP, or A&E. Details for Scotland are to check NHS inform, then ring your GP in office hours, or 111 out-of-hours. In Wales call NHS 111, and in Northern Ireland, call your GP.

See that is a bit vague, 'unless they are worried'. Not very specific. and as the OP says young people too might need help with breathing etc. I find it a bit vague anyone else? They should say exactly when to ask for help

pre-existing conditions sure to be a big factor. But I have seen many young and healthy people die in China. Like the whistleblower Dr Wenliang Li could be the most famous in China.

I understand the 111 service is probably overwhelmed by the 'worried well' but they should not put people at risk either and give better advice really

Yes i thought about the doctor, I saw it was said he maybe had repeated contact with the virus due to the nature of his work though as well which could have meant more exposure for him

A World Health Organization examination of data from 56,000 patients suggests:
6% become critically ill - lung failure, septic shock, organ failure and risk of death
14% develop severe symptoms - difficulty breathing and shortness of breath
80% develop mild symptoms - fever and cough and some may have pneumonia

Something doesn't quite add up about these figures!

That's 100% in total - but we also know that some people are pretty much completely asymptomatic.

Someone messed up their math when they compiled this into a "public friendly" bullet pointed list!

Your are right.

We will have to wait for people to believe.

Sad times.