Depressing- death rate

[AnotherMurkyDay]

Just wondered if anybody had any idea what the predicted death rate might be in the UK? I have done my own calculations but not sure if I've gone wrong somewhere as whichever way I've done it the numbers Come out worryingly high. Thanks

OP Some of that predicted 500,000 dead may have died soon anyway. And others are self isolating More realistic mortality rate from the virus is probably 250,000 to 400,000.
For comparison 500,000 die annually in England and Wales from all causes. Car crashes, suicide, heart attacks, strokes, etc.

Let a Chinese or Italian tell you if there is anything to worry about...

Thank you @alloutoffucks

@Queenscake

Oh absolutely I don't think either of their governments are hysterical, I think they have been overwhelmed by an unprecedented health crisis (which China were better prepared for due to SARS). I think anybody who isn't worried is being deluded. There is a difference between being worried and being hysterical.

Just to say the mortality rate is an estimate. It is a rough estimate based on 1% mortality rate and widespread transmission. It may be more if the mortality rate is more, it may be less if lots of people self isolate.
It is not going to be the millions some predict, but neither is it going to be tiny numbers as some are claiming.

60-80% are expected to contract the virus.

The death rate is presently 3.4% with operating hospital care.

UK population approx. 67 million.

67 million
x 70%
= 47 million infected in the UK
x 3.4% present death rate
= 1.6 million dead (in the UK).

That's the present, feasible worst case scenario.

There will also be survivors with signficant ongoing illness, possibly life limiting e.g. lung, kidney, heart damage. Early queries around male fertility.

@willdoitinaminute - thanks for that perspective. I’d not thought about the fact that the U.K. is only the size of some of the lockdown areas in Europe.

@PicsInRed I think that mortality rate is too high. I think lots of people are social distancing and some are self isolating. So no thanks to the Government I think it will be much lower than that, although still much higher than it needed to be.

And yes no one knows the long term impact of this. Apparently some who recovered from SARS are left with long term health issues. I know young kids don't tend to die from this, but I have no idea about their risk of long term health problems.

What is there to be gained by wanting to know what the death rate is going to be?

Do you research death rates before you buy a car? Walk down the street? Open a bottle of wine?

I actually think that this whole topic needs removing now because the vast majority of it is hysteriamongering and there is almost no balance to be found anywhere.

The death rate is actually not possible to determine because different countries have different infrastructures and dynamics which can affect the death rate. E.g. Italy has an aging population as well as a high number of smokers.

China has a huge problem with pollution and associated respiratory issues.

And everyone who keeps saying “we’re two weeks behind Italy,” no we’re not. Every country is different and just because the spread in one country is big doesn’t mean it will be the same in other countries.

If infecting 80% of the population is so unlikely, how come that’s the Government strategy?

@alternativeperspective - absolutely agree!

This isn't helpful but virtually all the epidemiologists, virologists and behavioural scientists I have heard interviewed have started by saying "this is a very new virus, we need to find out more, so all calculations are based on a series of assumptions". (Or words to that effect.)

So I think even the experts don't know the answers yet.

Of course it's just a predicted death rate and all predictions are made under a variety of assumptions. But what I have got from this thread is what the worst predictions would be but what would be much more likely and why.

And a whole heap of posters jumping on me for asking a question. One I think we should all be asking to understand what's to come. But if you want to bury your head in the sand, don't open something titled depressing death rates on the Coronavirus topic.

@AlternativePerspective I have used the British Governments own figures. They are much lower than the mortality rate in China. They may be wrong, which I have said.

I agree with other posters - What is the point of this thread. Why would you even want to discuss how many people you think might die?

@Mamamia456

So it's perfectly acceptable to have multiple threads about how many people might catch it but none about how many might die?

Our prime minister is saying we should prepare to lose loved ones. How many loved ones? I'm not asking something what a lot of people aren't thinking.

If you don't want to see the Coronavirus topic, if this discussion makes you uncomfortable, well that's why there's a separate Coronavirus topic. So that it can be hidden by those who feel uneasy about it. So hide it. Hide the entire topic. Don't come here. Or do. Your choice.

In the mean time, we're gonna talk, and we're gonna do that freely with officially supplied data.

Our prime minister is saying we should prepare to lose loved ones. How many loved ones? I'm not asking something what a lot of people aren't thinking. How long is a piece of string. When you have elderly relatives or those with underlying health conditions you need to be prepared that you might lose them anyway.

FWIW in my family the one who is most likely to die is me. Should I be panicking about that? No of course not. As long as I’m vigilant and aware.

Truth is we’re all going to die one day. That’s not an estimate, it’s a fact. Do we sit and look at the statistics and wonder just how we’re going to die? I doubt it somehow, and anyone who does should probably be seeking support.

I’m probably going to die of heart failure. I have almost done so three times now, I’m not likely to beat those odds forever. But that doesn’t mean I will die of heart failure. I could die of something else in the meantime. Or I could have the heart transplant I need and die of old age one day.

Instead of concentrating on dying people need to live their lives,.

If you don't want to see the Coronavirus topic, if this discussion makes you uncomfortable, well that's why there's a separate Coronavirus topic. So that it can be hidden by those who feel uneasy about it. So hide it. Hide the entire topic. Don't come here. Or do. Your choice. no. This topic is becoming like those MH forums where people go on to discuss their wish to end their lives and are supported by others in the same mindset to do so.

They’re grossly unhealthy as is this topic.

@AlternativePerspective

Discussing the possible death rate of a pandemic and encouraging somebody to commit suicide are not even slightly comparable, don't be silly

The way my health's been the last few years (and now) my normal life is basically just working out what's going to get me first.

Discussing the possible death rate of a pandemic and encouraging somebody to commit suicide are not even slightly comparable, don't be silly this entire topic and a suicide forum are very comparable actually. People come here to feed off one another’s anxieties and hysteria over this.

We’ve had topics now from How anyone not panicking is being unrealistic, how anyone not panicking has their head in the sand, how many deaths will there be, why are the schools not shut and are we not in lockdown, Are the undertakers ready for the influx of bodies (fortunately that one was deleted) but the list goes on.

There is a lot to be said when 75% of active convo’s is taken up by negative coronavirus discussions and somewhere in the midst is one thread entitled “the positive coronavirus mental health topic.”

Apart from the one thread discussing the pandemic as a whole all the other threads are designed to whip up hysteria and 9/10 of them are a rehash of what someone else said yesterday or the day before.

People who die of flu or smoking usually have access to health care and proper medication, their families can sit with them while they pass on.

This is different, Many people will die alone, without the proper access to drugs, after a stressful time trying to get into hospital.

I didn't "design" this to "whip up hysteria" I tried to post this as carefully as I could. Picked the corona topic, headed it as depressing and death rates probably should have added a trigger warning but thought it was pretty self explanatory. I don't think I deserve a kicking for all your frustrations at the "mass hysteria" on here.