" I must level with you, I must level with the British public, many more families are going to lose loved ones before their time."

[YoursTunbridgeWells]

Quote Boris Johnson.

Lots of people will die.

People are already self isolating. Cancelling holidays not going out using protective gear working from home where they can.

Why cancel the rest of it? You need to stagger the cases. You need some immunity to be built up. Stopping everything won’t stop it.

And when they need to protect the population. It will be up to three months from now. And people will be sick of it. So they will come out
And they won’t be able to protect the population when they need it.

They need some people to keep getting it now. So they can treat them, and spread Out the peak, so the nhs can cope. That’s the best they can do they are saying. Because it can’t be stopped.

Bet Johnson doesn’t lose his Dad though.

No, that's not what the science says, actually it says intervening at the right time in the form of shutting things down can prevent deaths, several papers came out on this today which I can't be arsed to link to but are on the worried about corona thread

I understand what others are saying, but the chief science officer and chief medical officer at the conference, that’s what they said. It can’t be stopped. No way round the fact that’s what they are saying the science says. You can disagree with them all you wish. But you can’t dispute that’s what they have said the science says. The science officers exact words were “ it’s impossible”.

@GrumpyHoonMain would it make you feel better if he did?

Surely if his dad follows the same advice as everyone else he's got the same chance of survival.

Do you think the Johnson's have some vaccine nobody else has access to?

Do you really think Boris himself isn't worried considering he has elderly relatives and a pregnant partner?

I watched the whole conference and there was plenty of input from the medical and science officers - the reasons were explained and Boris was unusually reasoned, thoughtful, direct, responding to questions and I thought did quite a good job. although he did look a bit pale and sweaty

They may need to escalate measures but they have reasons to hold off for now which were explained. Watch the whole thing and don't just read the headlines.

@Bluntness100 I understand your agrument but why have other countries taken draconican measures early on? The WHO have praised China for this and said what an impact it has had.
People will die but it seems there will be excess deaths in the UK.

I will probably die. I'm over 40 so I doubt I'd be eligible for treatment as I theoretucally have an auto-immune disease.

I don't want to die drowing from the excess fluid on my lungs as my organs fail while my famiy and children (well those that are left) watch on helplessly. If I get bilateral intersitital pneumonia I want the best death possible.

What did you want him to say ? "Don't worry, nobody further all die from this, you have my word". It's a virus, this is what happens. Even in viruses where we have vaccines and immunity i.e. seasonal flu! Everybody is up in arms if anyone dares compare it to the flu but people don't question how we have so many deaths from normal flu even when those who are dying are prioritised for vaccination year on year.

Their reasoning for their actions makes sense.

If you don't agree, then you are free to take your children out of school and you are free to take a month off your jobs and sit at home - but you won't because of the fines and loss of earnings - i.e. you need to think of the damage to YOUR personal economies. But yet the same people are criticising the government for daring to consider the greater good of the country's economy?

It is clear that when they say they don't advise elderly/other at risk people to isolate yet, it isn't that isolating now is not protective or helpful. You would be safer if you isolate from now but they don't think people can do it and they don't want them giving up and going back into society right at the peak of infection.

It isn't 'too soon' to isolate in terms of risk, the risk is out there. They think it's too soon from a point of view of people's behaviour. If they can only isolate for a few weeks, do it at the peak.

I am advising my elderly relatives to isolate as much as they possibly can.

They want to isolate the elderly and at risk when infection peaks to limit the damage. They know that by not isolating either side of the peak (including from now) many elderly and at risk will catch it and die. They will form a high percentage of the loved ones mentioned in the quote.

They are obviously convinced it would backfire to isolate now. If you think your relatives or you if at risk can do it, do it.

If we all do the maximum with can, more than the govt tell us to, to reduce spread, we may help to relieve the pressure a bit. We just need everyone to do it.

I don't know how old you are Tunbridge or what your condition is but I expect the odds are very good that would not develop severe pneumonia, and pretty good that you would not get it at all. Are you on immuno supressant drugs?

I know people are scared and may be looking at what other countries have done actions taken etc. However I was reassured by the CMO and his explanation for the different levels of delay measures being added at different times.
We would lose a huge part of our support services workforce if we closed schools too soon as parents have to leave jobs to stay at home. Certainly in the Nursing Care industry I work in I’m sure staffing would be hugely compromised.
Yes it may come to that level of disruption but I feel trusting highly knowledgeable experts on when that should start is advisable.
Yes timing it right could be the gamble but equally calling the big shut down early could also loose its power to reduce the peak.

@Inkpaperstars I'm just over 40 and not on immune suppressants - I finished in June as they had nasty side effects which outweighed the minor reduction in minor arthritis. My understanding is immune suppressants make you more susceptible to catching things in the first place and can make the duration of a virus longer and you are notably higher risk from complications - this was how it was explained to me about things like catching flu back when I started them not CV advice.

But as I have a condition on my medical records, it means I will likely not get any treatment when it comes to triage. Doctors don't have long to make decisions when it comes to who gets ventilated, based on the Italian situation and I think I would be a long way down the list partly due to age and partly health condition (serious or not).

Maybe I'd get lucky and not get bad pneumonia.

But I can't self isolate - I have 3 dependants and a DH who works in a busy area with lots of people. I meet thousands of people a week with work, and kids activties.

Well personally I want to catch it when there's a 1% mortality rate rather than a 4% or higher rate.

It won't be a nice death in an overflowing hospital.

Do you really think Boris himself isn't worried considering he has elderly relatives and a pregnant partner?

That’s exactly what I think. Boris doesn’t care less about anyone but himself. His ego and self confidence is so high, people like that always think they’ll be ok. As for his unborn child, well I don’t think he exactly puts much value on his existing children so....

He wants to be the hero that keeps Britain going about business as usual whilst other countries shut down. If it works he thinks he’ll be remembered as a great prime minister who battled on whilst others gave up.... in reality his legacy will be that the decisions he made or failed to make meant more people died than needed to.

My opinion of him is even lower than it was a few months ago and I didn’t think that was possible. He doesn’t care about any of us though so our opinions really don’t matter.

This thread is full of people trying to present a false binary between 'lots more people will die" and "no one will die". Not one person has suggested they'd like him to make the latter statement so please stop twisting our words.

What we wanted him to say, and what any decent leader would say is "i am taking every conceivable step to prevent as many deaths as i can." It's not asking too much, plenty of other countries have already taken those logical steps of closing schools and nurseries. If you can't engage with the genuine concerns here you're best of leaving the debate to those who can tbh.

What I took from it is schools etc may well likely close but it won't be until we hit the peak. At the moment, we just at the start of the infections. They don't want people to start self isolating too early.

It is clear that when they say they don't advise elderly/other at risk people to isolate yet, it isn't that isolating now is not protective or helpful. You would be safer if you isolate from now but they don't think people can do it and they don't want them giving up and going back into society right at the peak of infection.

Yes - they are absolutely not saying it's all safe and fine and dandy for elderly or vulnerable people to still be out and about mixing widely (or for kids to all be at school). They're not saying there's no risk yet or that it isn't increasing.

They're making the decision for the peasants that they'd better not tell us to reduce exposure yet, because we can't be trusted to carry this instruction out properly and might get lonely or bored or not do it for long enough.

I need to keep saying this.
People will die.
But will they die well-managed and with their breathing and pain mediated?
In Italy, they have more critical care beds proportionately than the Uk, but they are having to use operating theatres to ventilate patients, and if they have any existing illness they are not even treated. They do not have the resources.
This is the risk we run of letting the virus grow without doing ABSOLUTELY everything we can to slow it.
Shut. The. Schools.
Sod the economy. That one's dead in the water already, thanks to the-evil-of-which-we-may-not-use-its-name-now.

He’s just being pragmatic and telling it how it is .

We are not at the right place to shut the schools. Watch the press conference they explain it.

And still no mention of financial support for the British public, its not coming is it? and that Scarea me more, there intention is to do nothing at all, people on low incomes i want to hug, ive never been more ashamed of our country, we get the leaders we deserve sadly, , Italy suspended mortgages etc thats how you take care of citizens!!!!

I'm a doctor, I hate the Tories but I don't disagree with them on this (except maybe the sporting fixtures issue). I think their reasoning is sound. They're damned if they lie about it and damned if they don't - would you prefer they underestimated? There is no cure, there is no solution, there is no tried and tested way to go about things. Every country is fumbling around in the dark.

It's a balancing act. If we react too quickly people will have become bored and complacent by the time it really matters.

Be sensible, practice good hand hygiene, sleep and eat well and look after those around you.

Maybe I am being over optimistic here Tunbridge but I don't think your underlying condition would be taken into account at all. They will only probably have time to judge if people have major relevant underlying conditions. Having minor arthritis would not affect your chances of survival at all and that's what makes conditions relevant.

I am a similar age and also have an auto immune condition but am not currently on immuno suppressant drugs. It had not occurred to me that I would be classed as lower risk of survival than the general under 65 population.

I am not completely on top of the stats but the impression I got looking at WHO report is that given your age and condition you would be unlikely to get pneumonia and very unlikely to get pneumonia serious enought to require ICU/ hospitalisation. I know it is scary and anything could happen, but I think you can take a bit of reassurance just on that point.

@GiveHerHellFromUs "Why ban these things?" Because sometimes companies/establishment don't do what is in the public interest, they do what is in their own interest. Therefore it is sometimes necessary to put measures in place which force these places to act in the public interest as opposed to their own financial or other interests. Of course individuals can choose to take these actions themselves but again, there is always going to be the "I'm alright Jack" brigade, who think that since they and theirs are fit and healthy, they won't be affected by this, so what the hell. What they won't think about, or care about, is those who will be affected seriously by it ie the elderly, the immunocompromised. And I think "non essential" travel is pretty self explanatory. As in holiday or leisure trips. Business trips which can be either conducted online via video conferencing or postponed. Those kinds of trips. Non essential trips.

I don’t understand why they keep talking about ‘the peak’ as if we can’t do anything about it? Surely if we start the social distancing measures earlier rather than later, we stand a better chance of fewer people catching the virus?

I was staggered that he said this. It’s quite chilling. It sent me into a real panic thinking about losing my mum whose in her 60s. I’m happy to trust them on not closing schools just yet but not enforced cancelling of large events now seems absolutely, completely mad.