Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

Morning.

"Andrew from Manchester who went skiing" can fuck off. Presuming he has half a brain,by 21st Feb he could have looked up the cases himself and weighed up the consequences. And if the ski company understandably didn't stress the risks to him he could have looked at the Italian figures. But I expect he was "I'm not losing my money, it's like the flu that's all" and now he's gone Daily Mail Sadface and needs someone to blame (luckily a foreign country) for his own fuckwittery.

Second patient diagnosed with coronavirus in Turkey - minister t.co/EtDGu5kxNx t.co/yD7nmzmJbp
Reuters

I can understand avoiding school closures even at this stage

• some other countries are still doing that too, because of the consequences to essential services as well as the economy

but it is the lack of other measures that really concerns me, which those other countries have taken
e.g. not banning large crowds, not ramping up testing

For Hunt to speak out means his concern for the country has outweighed all that

And hell he's an ambitious tory MP and lots of people might die thus creating potential job opportunities...

(God I'm cynical)

Can someone medical please explain this herd immunity that they are relying on? My understanding is that you can't become immune to viruses?! How would this work?

My kids have got d&v today anyway but I suppose they’ll look like one of the “parents pull kids from school in Boris Johnson defiance” statistics

So, if 60% catch this what is the projected death rate?

I can't believe they have admitted that's the plan!
I've never been as frightened of my own government.

Coronavirus: many infections spread by people yet to show symptoms – scientists
[[https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists
www.theguardian.com/science/2020/mar/12/coronavirus-most-infections-spread-by-people-yet-to-show-symptoms-scientists]]

An analysis of infections in Singapore and Tianjin in China revealed that
two-thirds and three-quarters of people respectively
appear to have caught it from others who were incubating the virus but still symptom-free.
.....
“The number helps us estimate how likely certain kinds of public health interventions are to work,” said Riley.

“If you ask people to go home when they feel ill and they have infected half the people they are going to infect before they feel ill,
then you know you are not going to get rid of those transmissions.”

But he said it was still important to isolate those with symptoms,
even if it would not be enough to stop the outbreak.
......
One of the factors that has distinguished this coronavirus pandemic from the Sars epidemic in 2003,

is that Sars was infectious only after the development of clinical signs, which made it relatively easier to control.

I feel like this is what they said too. Someone yesterday said that with a 1% mortality rate of 60% of the population that gives 400,000 deaths not sure of the maths myself but I think that sounds correct.

Tbh, of all the people do disagree, Jeremy hunt, who was in charge of the NHS... He is the most worrying one.

I'm sure it's not.

Even if we consider the economy, if the virus isn't slowed down, no health system will be able to cope with all the sick in hospital, all the dead or all sick at home at the same time. Doctors in Italy are reportedly having to choose who to put on ventilators. I suspect they had to in China too.

I don't think their current choices are the best, but it's clear that it can affect anyone. And nobody would want this sort of scenario.

And, btw, my feeling, as someone who is familiar with epidemiology for work, is that it won't be possible to contain or make disappear without stopping all contacts at this point. Our society means that we are too dependent on each other, even to maintain basic services.

I cough due to existing lung problems and it's getting very embarrassing in public. My elderly mum was saying I should probably self isolate because I'd be higher risk.

But it doesn't really make sense if 5 other people in the household are coming and going all the time to school and work.

Was just watching Good Morning Britain and they were saying that the number of pp in the UK that have it is likely to be around a hundred thousand!

If you manage to infect the right 60% then hopefully not as many will die.

It's a gamble - of course it is.

But countries who are locking down - are they trying to delay or stop?

We don't have the clusters yet that some other countries do so in guess it is a different situation here?

My understanding is that you can't become immune to viruses?!

You're thinking of the flu, but even so, what happens is that the viruses change so that people aren't immune to the new version.

The vast majority of vaccines that work well long term are against viruses.
Some for bacteria.
None for parasites (e.g. malaria).

Herd immunity doesn't make sense unless they are assuming that at least 80% of the population will indeed catch it

Johnson was very blunt in his warnings about losing loved ones

That degree of honesty may help convince those still of the "it's only flu, you're all hysterical scaremongers" persuasion

Will it be enough to temporarily change ingrained habits,
e.g. of managers & employees re presenteeism ?

Has anyone noticed more presenters on the radio and tv getting hoarse or coughing?

Or in press conferences?

I'm also noticing more ambulances.

But it's probably just because I'm paying attention, like how you notice all the people touching their faces or feeling yuk when you ha e to pull a door handle in public.

Don't think you necessarily have to be immune. Just more resistant to catching it again.

If you can't catch it easily then it's more difficult for it to spread.

Imagine 10 people in a line for 15 mins. No one has any immunity. They all catch it.
Now imagine one has increased resistance to catching it (even if not completely immune). People at end of line less likely to get it. If they stand there for an hour they might all get it still.
If enough people are resistant then virus is halted in spread.
The vulnerable are then less at risk.

Or that's the theory.

You can’t get heard immunity from flu!!!

Lancet: Clinical course and risk factors for mortality of adult inpatients with COVID-19 in Wuhan

A very informative paper

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2820%2930566-3/fulltext

For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days (IQR 17·0–24·0) from illness onset,
but the virus was continuously detectable until death in non-survivors (table 2; figure 1).

The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days, whereas the longest was 37 days.
.......
Comorbidities were present in nearly half of patients,
with hypertension being the most common comorbidity,
followed by diabetes and coronary heart disease (table 1).

Destiny who was saying that? They said 5 - 10000 last night.

Your being played seriously wake up!

I really hope the Chinese govt are successful in their efforts to stop the wet markets

but they also need to just stop all use of bats whether in soup or in Chinese medicines
Also pangolins, civets etc

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/

"Wuhan-based virologist Shi Zhengli has identified dozens of deadly SARS-like viruses in bat caves, and she warns there are more out there."

Herd immunity is the basis for vaccination. You inject an attenuated/ or small live amount of antigen and the body created antibodies in response; so that when the body comes across the disease irl it can already fight it.

If you have I think, 80% of a herd (come from veterinary medicine originally) with antibodies, then you dramatically reduce the prevelance of a disease/protect the 20%. In human terms, the 20% are those that can’t be vaccinated, what we call the vulnerable

Of course, the 80% (or what ever) level of immunity can potentially be achieved by contact with the actual real life disease. This isn’t a certain. Because if the disease kills the people’s, then obviously no one is left with immunity. Plus, depending on the disease, for some, people don’t develop antibody memory I.e. diseases that you can catch repeatedly

Former health secretary Jeremy Hunt criticises government's decision not to introduce stricter measures to control the coronavirus outbreak

t.co/jsBMIdWWxG
BBC