Worried about coronavirus thread 24

[ofwarren]

Sorry everyone, I was watching that shambles of a press conference

Justin Trudeau’s wife has tested positive

I’ve been spending all night trying to understand the govts thinking in being this lax compared to other countries. I’m wondering if they’re looking at the projection in the months ahead of how this thing will develop world wide. Countries are making knee jerk decisions now to close schools/gatherings etc to stop the spread at the start. But all this will do is reduce the spread at the start, but these measures will be difficult to enforce for months and months on end. 15000 in Italy (roughly) is a horrible high number, but compared to the whole population of Italy, is rather small. They are clambering to get it under control by banning things but this could just be the start. Even if they do get it under control with their measures, now it’s a pandemic, it’ll just come back again. Yes people are off school etc now, but if this continues for months on end and people aren’t getting paid/food supply chains will get harder to maintain etc etc, people may be more likely to flout things. The govt may just realise this is only the start of how bad it’ll get. Yes it feels like we need to keep things under control right now and do more, but however much we do it’s still out there, it’ll just come back into the country and we’ll be back to square one and have t start again. If this is the case, looking at Italy’s hospitals right now, that’s a really scary prospect. And I may be way off. What do you think?

Does anyone know how long the virus takes to develop, if you have it? It aches when I breathe, not badly though. Has been going on for 4-5 days, not getting any worse or coughing. And I'm asthmatic, & we've recently moved house so there's still plaster dust, general dust & moving dirt everywhere. The ache in my lungs is literally my only symptom aside from a slight amount of itching in my ears & eyes (usually an indication of allergic reaction).

I'm probably being totally & unreasonably paranoid. Tell me IABU? I don't really want to start a new thread & have lots of people pile on... I've been following these ones intermittently though.

I just think this is terrifying. I have a relative who is a GP and they are terrified of what is going to happy in this country. I’m not worried about me or my children but my parents and all the other people who aren’t in the prime of their life or have existing health conditions. I really do think it’ll change society as we know it.

Yet here we are more or less carry on as normal.

Awdbovril I would follow the advice to self isolate and keep a closer eye - if you do worsen phone 111.

Reastie, I believe you are right.

They Were very clear at the start of that press conference. We have no cures, we have no vaccines, and people are going to lose loved ones.

There is no government in the world who can hold the spread of this disease indefinitely. Think about all the countries not reporting cases, that is not because they don’t have it there it’s because they don’t test for it.

They know the only thing we can do is prevent another flare up after an economy crippling premature shutdown. To go through it once will be bad enough, imagine another shutdown st Christmas. They want the kids, the fit and healthy to catch it, they need herd immunity before flu season starts. If you shut everyone away now we lose that opportunity to prevent round two.

The elderly and the vulnerable are unfortunately going to face high death tolls. It’s not fair, and life is cruel. I may not outlive this virus I have bad asthma and the start of COPD. I also have young children.

But I know that we can’t outrun this virus. And we have to try our best not to panic.

I am also hoping a bit of reverse psychology will come into play now. We have been so used to the government nannying us a lot we don’t listen. Now they are not dictating to us, and closing down things drastically maybe more and more people will be starting to question their behaviour and modify how they are reacting, because it’s a very scary prospect having to keep calm and carry on.

Most people on here get how dangerous this is, I’m not convinced Joe Public is. Until the penny drops collectively there is no point ramping things up yet.

Will do.

I really don't want to have to get the bus to college today. It takes nearly an hour to get there on the bus.,

I think with regard to the immunity point, I don't think they are looking to get the sort of levels of immunity you get from a vaccination programme. I think it's just that some immunity in the population is better than none.

Once there is a level of immunity you would hope that a further epidemic is unlikely because the immunity already within the population slows the spread and fewer people get it overall.

I think that's why they keep banging on about the timing, they need some of us to get it but just not so many that the small percentage of cases that end up making people very unwell overwhelm the nhs.

They also need the worst of this over during the summer months. It's very nuanced.

If this is really just the very start of the curve worldwide, and we haven’t seen anything yet, this is even scarier than I imagined. I hope the science we are following pays off. Things will never be quite the same again, we really are at war against this thing.

Confusedandtired how will you do it, will you de-register and home school?

They would get the immunity with lock down. Lock down wouldn’t stop it dead in its tracks. It would just keep it at levels that the nhs are more likely to be able to cope with

The government are displaying a total disregard for the lives of elderly/people with pre existing conditions. They know they are going to die, they don’t care. Boris SAID it ffs

Not even lock down; but telling employers to allow wfh where possible, banning large events

There is a lot of discussion on what is needed to achieve herd immunity. Herd immunity Is usually used in reference to vaccines, it’s about preventing as many people as possible getting a disease.

What precisely is the point of herd immunity if in order to get it, almost everyone has to catch the virus in the first place?

They would get the immunity with lock down

it is not yet clear if there will be immunity from corona virus.

Nellodee I presume so you keep the vulnerable from getting it and they are the majority of 29% of whatever who don’t.

20

people surely can't think that the concept of herd immunity hasn't occurred to the Chinese?

@eeeyoresmiles, yep! Or any of the other countries 🤨.. why people think BJ is cleverer than the rest of the world, i have no idea. The epidemiologists on his payroll understand this better than all the epidemiologists no-longer on his payroll and from all around the world. Colonialists attitude

I’m concerned that they are saying the peak will be in around 10 weeks.
We will likely have millions by then based on we have around 10,000 now.
I started with tickle in my throat and now when I breath in I hear a slight rasp.
What would you do?

Yes true @woodencoffeetable; it’s easy to forget that, because it is being repeated so often as justification for doing fuck all

Herd immunity is crazy if you can avoid it. China is below 1% infection. By clamping down. Which no western country has done.

I don't completely buy the 10,000 figure - it sounds like the government have worked backwards from the number of deaths using a 1% death rate to estimate the spread in the population. BUT the sample size is so small and we Italy currently has a higher death rate, so I'm unconvinced the 10,000 figure is accurate.

I think they are using that figure to justify lowering rates of testing and to try and persuade us most people will have a mild case.

The more I think about the cough and temperature advice, the more I think people won't follow it. If you are totally honest, if you have a job where you can't work from home, would you really feel able to ring up this morning and say "I've got a mild cough so I can't come in?"

I'm interested to see how this advice is shared to students at my school as well - even on Tuesday, our head of year was talking about pushing to get attendance up.

@Writersblock2 I agree. Watched the statement and came here to say the same and I'm really a bit dumbstruck by the reaction I'm seeing.

80% infection rate is a worst case scenario, they are anticipating nearer 20%. We want the elderly and vulnerable to as far as possible not be in the 20-80% who catch the virus.

Good point also @nellodee, we aren’t actually talking about ‘herd immunity’ at all are we. We are just talking about letting the virus run through the population unchecked and see how we come out the other end