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Worried about coronavirus thread 22

999 replies

ofwarren · 11/03/2020 19:40

@usernameishistory is busy and asked me to start a new thread.

Please see post 21 for more information about coronavirus.

[Edited by MNHQ at OP's request]

OP posts:
Thread gallery
18
Oakmaiden · 11/03/2020 20:34

"We do not expect numbers to peak in the next fortnight, we expect numbers to continue to rise after that
and the peak would be after a matter of a couple of months, rather than in a matter of a couple weeks.

This is a bit interesting - because the evidence from Hubei shows that once you introduce social distancing then new cases continue to climb for around 12/13 days (as people have already caught it but take that long to show symptoms sometimes). They then fall rapidly over the following 17 days. So basically the peak in Hubei was on 4th Feb - 12 days after lockdown.

We know our Gvt doesn't have the will to introduce a lockdown anytime soon - the fact they are expecting a peak in "a couple of months" seems to indicate they think they are on target of radically reducing the speed of spread.

It would have been interesting to see the effect of Italy's "social distancing Lite" on the rate of cases, but it appears they are reconsidering and may well be putting in more Hubei-like measures.

But unless our rate of spread is much slower than any other country similar to us, then in a couple of months then enough of the population would have been infected to achieve herd immunity. I can't for a moment think they are actually going to sit on their heels and let this happen.

So they must be convinced they have a way to slow the spread without resorting to school closures and lockdowns.

It is very interesting.

aWeaponCalledtheWord · 11/03/2020 20:34

thank you to those who answered my question about my temperature on the previous thread.

i’m a bit of a worrier, i know, but with a fucked thyroid, methotrexate and some lovely mental illness thrown in, having a slight fever is frightening, as i’m generally (counterintuitive as it sounds) quite well - i’ve had flu and pneumonia jabs, and i never get colds.

so i’ll keep an eye on my temperature, ignore my weird runny nose with no congestion and see how i feel in the morning.

i’m not about to start harassing the medical services, but i’ll count myself as in an ‘at risk’ group and avoid crowds and public transport, i think.

just me and the cat then, for a bit. at least i have some loo roll! (and i’ve been stocking up the store cupboard over the last few shops i’ve done).

maybe it’s time to re-read The Stand for some tips...

MarshaBradyo · 11/03/2020 20:34

I don’t doubt more testing could be done but there are time issues with the new 10k daily.

nellodee · 11/03/2020 20:34

Actually - in the interests of not scaremongering - I just went to link to that paper about the spread on the bus and it appears it has been retracted. Which is good news!

middleager · 11/03/2020 20:35

While the government allow football matches, schools with cases to remain open with cases and employees to demonstrate presenteeism in the office, it sends a message to bosses that this type of apathy is fine, that there's not a problem. Because some accept the Govt's decision making as Gospel.

Meanwhile community transmission grows.

Skybluepink123 · 11/03/2020 20:35

Did anyone see Boris washing his hands at a lab the other day? He was useless. My dog could have done better! If that’s the level of his expertise for the much heralded hand washing then Lord help us all!
He instils no confidence in me at all and, no, this isn’t political. I just want to feel as though the people paid to protect us are actually doing something but I’m increasingly worried that they’re not. BTW at my GP surgery today, the practice nurse was protecting herself by wearing gloves, casually announced that paper masks only work for 30 seconds before they become too moist and that hand sanitiser and toilet rolls have been stolen from the surgery! What hope is there!

alloutoffucks · 11/03/2020 20:35

@MarshaBradyo The Government are doing nothing. Zilch. Not even encouraging wfh where that is possible. Or cancelling the football match. Zilch. Just wash your hands. Again and again and again.

Nearlyalmost50 · 11/03/2020 20:35

My worry with the behavioural science team is that their thinking just isn't complex enough- if you close schools completely, people will have grandparents look after kids- yes, but what if you reduced the school population by getting rid of fines, allowed immune suppressed or vulnerable children to stay home, closed only schools with corona for deep cleans for a week then reopened (many schools with a child haven't even had this basic basic measure!), had a skeleton staff, had only Year 11's in secondary and so on. Looked at other countries who have continued free school meals for the poorest- how are they delivering them? Bringing forward Easter by a week.

There are so many different permutations of 'closing the schools' that you could go for, I am not convinced their models can take account of all these parameters- and I also don't understand why some modelling shows good results for school closure, what's wrong with their models.

Similarly- if they close large football stadiums, people will go to pubs- what? In many countries pubs have closed, theatres have closed, museums have closed. People then have to socialize sparsely, spread out and in small groups. This isn't a watch in a stadium/watch in a pub dichotomy.

They seem seduced by the 'people are irrational, we have to do counter-intuitive things' rhetoric, but I disagree that people are stupid. Actually, people's instinct to stay away from potentially sick people is pretty rational, and for those who don't find it so, fines/social disapproval can also work.

I also get the point about fatigue, but honestly, on an island we should have been able to contain this. We haven't even tried. MH even admitted tonight he's just instituted better advice at airports from those returning from Italy today- after two weeks of criticism that people are literally walking in from hot spots straight onto public transport. They are slow and cumbersome and not learning from elsewhere.

BookMeOnTheSudExpress · 11/03/2020 20:35

The Twitter Italian article is the same one from the end of the other thread.

MmeAlice · 11/03/2020 20:35

Hej @MrsBeeluga

I have been watching and waiting for the last month. So many Danes like to go skiing. It was a case of when not if. The last couple of days people really seem to have started to wake up to the situation. I am very pleased with the hard and fast action now being taken. What are your thoughts?

Kuponut · 11/03/2020 20:36

I was actually amazed no one has nicked the loo rolls from the train station today to be honest.

MurrayTheMonk · 11/03/2020 20:36

I don't understand why we don't seem to be taking any sensible measures at all. Why do our scientists feel differently to seemingly every other infected countries scientists? (Bar possibly the US) Genuine question.

middleager · 11/03/2020 20:36

Sky
Boris looked so awkward in that lab. It was like he was auditioning for Bake Off or something.

He's good at making a hash though.

Mordred · 11/03/2020 20:36

@Meercat2

Poland has closed all schools and universities too. Cinemas, museums, clubs etc etc. They are trying to nip it in the bud before it gets as bad as it already is here.

ofwarren · 11/03/2020 20:37

President Trump says he’s making a statement at 8pm - saying Europe is in a really tough shape and he’ll be making announcements around that. Word is he will introduce a ban on inward travel to Europe and perhaps the other way round too. May also declare national emergency

Siobhan Kennedy C4 NEWS

OP posts:
MmeAlice · 11/03/2020 20:37

Some drive and some fly (in my experience) @SansaSnark

Sorry, I know that was not a question for me.

wintertravel1980 · 11/03/2020 20:37

Has anyone, anywhere, ever read a piece of peer reviewed research that shows school closures are ineffective?

It is too early for "peer reviewed research" but so far there are no documented cases of children passing coronavirus to their parents/carers:

www.statnews.com/2020/03/06/were-learning-a-lot-about-the-coronavirus-it-will-help-us-assess-risk/

“Even when we looked at households, we did not find a single example of a child bringing the infection into the household and transmitting to the parents. It was the other way around,” Van Kerkhove said. “And the children tending to have mild disease.”

SansaSnark · 11/03/2020 20:38

@Oakmaiden Part of me really agrees with you and wants to trust that the government has a plan. I just wish they would tell us the details of this plan, or even that they had one- I would find this so much more reassuring.

However, there is part of me that really feels they just do not have a clue what they are doing, and are being really indecisive, and trying to reassure us all whilst they are being indecisive privately.

I don't think Boris Johnson is a very decisive person, and I'm not convinced he is good at making hard, potentially unpopular decisions.

BackInTime · 11/03/2020 20:38

Let's hope Boris's decisions are not being steered by his maverick adviser Dominic Cummings, yes the one that hired an adviser with some pretty shady views about Eugenics.

Kuponut · 11/03/2020 20:38

I think they seem to think that those foreign people have over reacted by lock down and that British courage in the face of adversity will see us through Yadda Yadda. it is starting to feel that delusional compared to what the WHO is saying.

MyHipsDontLieUnfortunately · 11/03/2020 20:38

Come on, government, if you're following the science, show us the peer reviewed papers you are basing your response on

Show us the research or prepare for a backlash like you have never fucking seen in your lives if you put our families at risk

Do NOT think we will not be comparing our country's deaths against every other country that chose to follow "different" science to you

I agree with every word of this too. My dad has is in his early 60s with COPD. He is working a zero hours, very physical job and can't afford to take a step back as he'll be unable to pay his rent. I bet Bozo's dad won't have to take any such risks.

BookMeOnTheSudExpress · 11/03/2020 20:38

Newsflash in Italy. PM about to speak.

mylittlewoodenword · 11/03/2020 20:38

Haha there cannot be evidence of that as in China children were at home.

Skybluepink123 · 11/03/2020 20:39

middleager 😆 Boris’ Bake Off, I like it!

SansaSnark · 11/03/2020 20:40

@MmeAlice Thank you for that.

I have a bit of a theory that part of the reason for the spread in France and Germany might be people driving through from Italy after ski holidays, and this is increasing the spread- whereas countries at the end of the road (as it were) may have a slightly slower spread rate.

But I have nothing to back this up with really.