@MangePasTesOnglesVilain accept actually it doesnt its conclusions arent clear simply because children arent widely affected
*A growing body of evidence suggests that school closure can reduce transmission of
influenza. However, this effect is not seen consistently, and its likely magnitude, as well as
the optimum timing and duration, remain unclear. There are several reasons for this
uncertainty:
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- In many published epidemiological studies and outbreak reports, school closure was
implemented relatively late in the outbreak, at which point incidence may have begun to
decline even if schools remained open.
- During outbreaks (both seasonal and pandemic), the use of multiple interventions often
makes it difficult to assess the effects of school closures alone.
- It is unclear to what extent changes in contact patterns and transmission occurring
during seasonal influenza and past pandemics may be extrapolated to a future
pandemic. Data from the 2009 pandemic support the conclusion that school closures can
reduce transmission of influenza in contemporary settings; however, the results from
these studies may not be applicable to a new pandemic virus which may have different
epidemiological properties (e.g. a higher case fatality ratio or more uniform age-specific
attack rates than those seen during previous pandemics).
- Mathematical modelling studies have also reached varying conclusions regarding the
magnitude of the effects of school closures on an influenza pandemic, due to differences
in their underlying assumptions regarding both viral properties and human behaviour.
- Past pandemics have varied in important characteristics which influence the effects of
school closures (e.g. age-specific attack rates), and the features of a future pandemic
cannot be predicted.
Several conclusions can be drawn from the identified published literature:
- The fact that some epidemiological studies showed increases in incidence after schools
reopened suggests that school closures can reduce transmission under certain
circumstances.
- The timing of school closure is likely to be critical, with the intervention likely to be more
effective if implemented relatively early in the epidemic, although this also depends on
the duration of closure. However, there is limited evidence available regarding both the
optimal timing and duration of closure from either the epidemiological or modelling
literature. A limit at which it is “too late” to close schools is not currently demonstrated in
the limited literature available.
- School closures are able to reduce transmission amongst children. Evidence regarding
the effects on adults is less consistent, but generally transmission amongst adults
appears to be relatively unaffected by school closures.
- Both epidemiological and modelling studies have found that the peak and cumulative
attack rates can be reduced by school closures. The extent of these reductions is
however unclear, and likely to depend on many factors including population behaviour,
viral transmissibility and age-specific attack rates. Modelling studies consistently predict
that school closure would have a greater effect on peak than cumulative attack rates.
- Modelling studies indicate that school closures are likely to achieve the greatest
reductions in peak incidence and cumulative attack rates if the transmissibility of the
causative virus is relatively low and if attack rates are higher in children than in other
age groups.
- Reactive local closures and pro-active national closures both appear to have had an
effect on transmission. However, further work is required to assess the relative benefits
of different school closure strategies.*
Now I do think we should be working from home, limiting travel and certainly shutting down flights and increasing security at airports. And I think fines and attendance should be stopped so parents can make individual decisions.