Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

How many people will lose there homes and jobs if we close the schools - or is there some magic money tree that’s going to keep the country from crashing.

Schools have been planning for a pandemic for at least the last 10 years. Was always the number one item on the agenda at our governors meetings.

Just wash your fucking hands properly.

Oh silly us, if only we thought of that

@CinnabarRed that's the most sensible comment on the subject that I've read in a while.
Unfortunately though I just don't have faith that people will do the sensible thing (I could for example pick up on your comparison to vaccines... and we know how some people feel about them!)
Honesty I am thanking the stars every single day that I'm no lover a senior NHS manager.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the government decide to close schools early for extended Easter holidays. Working parents already have plans to cover Easter so it’s just an additional week to sort out. Independents finish a week earlier than state anyway.

PaddyF0dder It may well now be 3% but that percentage has gone up. Given the levels of transmission that could easily be because we haven’t tested enough people for the virus. For example one of the U.K. cases couldn’t identify where he caught it. So any number of people could have given it to him or he could gave spread it. But we can’t add those positive cases to the totals because we don’t know them.

There appears to be natural immunity to Covid 19 and a vaccine will be ready by next year. They are treating serious cases of Covid 19 with sonething taken from survivors of it. Which sounds a bit like a vaccine.

"Mortality is 3.5%. For flu it’s way below 1%."

The estimated mortality rate for Coronavirus, taking into account cases that aren't reported, is below 2%. You can't just divide reported cases by number of deaths - that won't give you an accurate figure.

I’m a labour voting remainer with an elderly father undergoing chemo, who works in a school and would love nothing more than a couple of weeks to hunker down with my 3 kids.

However, as much as it pains me to admit, I think the government response is fully in line with scientific advice and on this (and this alone!) i trust the government (phew-that was hard!)

We need to take responsibility for our own behaviours and reduce risk/limit spread. I work in a special school of 200 plus pupils and a huge staff; vigilance & hygiene are key for everyone

Some kids are very close to GCSE and A level exams and for these reasons alone I don’t think schools should be closing anytime soon.

Ariadne, was I missing something in that link? It didn’t outline what aggressive measures were at all. I couldn’t find the part where it said anything at all about the efficacy of school closures or travel restrictions. It just looked like an opening speech to me. I’ve read the WHO joint mission with China report, and that gave a fuller description. It’s readily available if anyone cares to search for it.

Exam boards are preparing for possible closures, totally

Brilliant post @CinnabarRed

You are ridiculous. They think coronavirus could be around all year, are you saying schools are shut indefinitely and the whole country should come to a standstill?!

There is no insurance compensation for nurseries if they close as this virus isn’t on the ‘list’ 🙄.

Therefore there might not be any nurseries to go back to. Poor government funding has meant many are financially on the edge as it is. Closing would finish many unless parents still paid for space. But parents probably couldn’t afford to if they are off work to care for children!

There are massive repercussions if schools and nurseries closed and the government would have to ensure that people and businesses were helped to keep afloat financially.

That said, these places are a hotbed for spreading illness. I’m poorly with something I’ve picked up from children at work. There is no easy answer. I’d quite happily stay home with my children so long as I had a job and means to pay bills at the end.

You can argue over the mortality rate but we know it's exponentially higher than flu. What people don't seem to grasp is that if you don't act now a lot of those children will be missing parents. Somewhere between 10-20% of all patients will land in the ICU. WE DO NOT HAVE THAT CAPACITY. The potential for the death count to be higher here than other European countries is huge. The number of hospital beds in the UK has dropped by half in the last 30 years. We have the third lowest number of ICU beds per 100,000 people. Many ICUs are full NOW. Germany has triple the capacity per capita that we have to deal with this virus.

Closing schools is about cutting down the transmission rate significantly. Children, so far, haven't been the ones to get critically ill but they do get it and spread it to their parents and grandparents and everyone else because their hygiene is poor. They are super spreaders. That's why we shut schools - to significantly reduce transmission. If you think the logistics of childcare trumps the logistics of treating thousands more critically ill people than can be coped with - you're wrong.

This government seems to be willing to accept a death toll of 100,000 for the sake of the economy or in other words money is more important than people.

You will not be able to shut the barn door once this horse bolts. Shutting schools now would make sense. We can still contain it but that window is closing.

So you think you know better than the government, medical experts and the Workd Health Organisation?

I had to laugh at that, loud. As if the government we have would give a shit about individuals. I can see Dom Cummings already calculating how this wipeout of the old and the weak would be better for the economy.

The WHO official mortaility rate is 3.4%. Italy's mortality rate from outcomes is currently 28%

The WHO is telling governments they need to do more.

If they closed schools where are the children meant to go when their parents have to work to feed them? Assuming other childcare providers would close too then that’d still fuck up even the Easter holidays for a lot of people.

OP is a doctor working in the NHS. I’m inclined to believe him, and trust his judgement, more than I trust a politician or bureaucrat.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

I've been following the developing situation since mid-January knowing this disaster was coming but hoping I was wrong.

China, Iran, Italy were too late.

We are way too late.

No need. Children rarely catch it.
A really daft comment. They do catch it, spread it, but are less likely to suffer serious effects from it.

I watched this interview from channel 4 news on another thread and found it really worrying.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dcJDpV-igjss*

I would love boris to go to school. He might learn something useful whilst there!

Closing schools now rather than later makes sense, they would be closed anyway, better to do it before it spreads beyond control. Because believe me, you may prefer to Isolated at home with a healthy family, because a single ill member in the house will surely pass it to the other members of the family.

@PaddyF0dder Thank you for your excellent post. I agree with you on every point.

Considering Italy as a country was fully functioning 2 weeks ago to now this, shows the severity we are facing. You only have to look at any trajectory chart but, I fear too many people are of the 'normalcy bias'? [Normalcy bias causes people to act as if life is going on as normal while the world is falling apart around them. They’ll say everything will pass as the disaster worsens.]

I wonder if some people who post on here are so vile in real life???

I matter what exam boards are doing lamps it will cause extra stress and anxiety for the children involved who have been preparing for their exams for a very long time. Schools are having to tell the GCSE students that there is a possibility that they will be sitting their exams in September whilst simultaneously studying for their A levels and current A level students will possibly miss the start of uni if they have to sit their exams in September and wait for results.

The "children will still gather" argument is stupid

Firstly most children have responsible parents who won't let them
Those older children who either are allowed out or do not follow their parents instructions may well meet up with friends yes. but that will be a handful of people rather than the hundreds they mix with every day at school.

I think schools will be closed within the fortnight. Italy has just locked down 16 million people. Spain has an area in lockdown too. Many countries around the world have closed schools and we are behind at the moment.