Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Apologies - my understanding was that the exam boards were considering doing the exams remotely but it seems I’m behind the times (my info is like my fashion sense!)

piggy we’ve been sternly told not to spread panic. Of course, the HTs pets have been shouting about it in the corridor, but that’s OK. The rest of us are to close down any discussion if we hear it.

Those asking how it would work as parents would have to take time out of work to care for their children. well how would it work if the parents catch the virus and have to be hospitalised, who will care for the children then. Its catch 22, but the better option is to limit the spread of the disease to keep everyone healthy as long as possible.

Offices that can function by allowing staff to work from home, should do so, and then the ones that have to work in the office will be in a less populated environment, there will be less interaction on the Tube, busses etc as less going to work/school.

If where I work, one person caught it, the whole building would get it and would have to close. I work in an area that is needed to function during this time, specifically focussing efforts on the virus, if all were in self isolation or hospital for 2 weeks it would help no one. so better to put in place these simple measures now before its too late.

Where are you getting your 28% figure from? Italy does have the highest mortality rate by country of confirmed cases but that was 4.5% last time I checked.

This is the information for Italy as of yesterday. 55% of the cases are in intensive care. 28% of the closed cases (dead v recovered) have died. This is from the worldometers site which is excellent and updated regularly throughout the day. The actual death rate is currently 6% and its say at that level for a while now. The WHO think there are more cases than fall into the stats and so have revised this downwards to an anticipated death rate of 3.4%. The 1-2% some are quoting is WAY out of date.

"1,247 new cases and 36 new deaths in Italy

• Among the 5,061 active cases, 3,218 (55%) are hospitalized, 567 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care

• Among the 822 closed cases, 589 (72%) have recovered, 233 (28%) have died"

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

lamps we haven't even had that much of a steer! I think SLT have told themselves not to talk about it! It's like Jones in Dad's Army!

I think schools should partially close for social distancing. If after Easter only year 11 and 13 came back there would be enough space to separate pupils with the extra teachers available. It could only work if teachers kids could also attend with, effectively, babysitting in schools fo them. After the exams and for the last month of school the other years could come back. I say this as a secondary teacher with kids of my own.

However our school would need plenty of warning if we were going to do that. Plenty of warning if the whole school were to close if we as teachers were meant to provide work remotely. I’m not seeing any communication from the government on this. Last minute school closing announcements would be the worst.

The other thing to keep in mind is that even those of us who could theoretically work or learn from home won’t actually be able to do so. The UK’s home broadband capacity is nowhere near enough. Especially once you add in bored people trying to stream Netflix or Mumsnet.

We should at least consider how the country would cope should we close the schools

I think the government has done that, which is why they won't close schools. And yes, I agree all places should be closed if schools are. Parents will share child care with other parents, and who wants to entertain four kids in cold wet weather? Indoor play areas, swimming pools, library's and museums will all be full of children who aren't in school.

I also think teaching children to wash hands won't do much to stop infections in school. Children wash their hands then walk away with a finger up their nose, then put a pencil in their mouth with is then picked up by another child who does the same thing. Germs will spread very quickly in schools, it inevitable.

I do think all year 11s should be advised to stay at home between Easter and GCSE exams so they're not ill during the exam period.

piggy it’s selfish as hell but OH how I hope we close!

Closing the schools would be pointless without keeping DCs away from parks, soft play, restaurants, etc. They would also need to stay away from shops and supermarkets, so even if you had one adult available to stay with the DCs in the house, someone else would need to provide them with the basics.

And even if you did manage to isolate all DCs in their homes, you still have adults going about and coming into contact with other adults.

So now you have to close down offices and factories and food production units and utility plants, etc. to keep all adults isolated at home. But now there is no one to provide these people with the basics and there is no one producing the basics.

So there is no food being collected, processed, packaged, transported and distributed. And there is no one maintaining utility facilities, so the electricity will go off and the sewage might back up and I'm not sure if water would keep coming out of the tap.

And you need to keep this up for at least a month, ideally globally, otherwise anyone from another country could just bring the virus back unless you close off your borders.

If you do all that you will probably contain the virus but at the cost at all the people you are going to kill through the lack of basic resources and the complete collapse of the economy. On the plus side global warming should slow down considerably if we all go back to a basic sustainance economy.

Sorry 55% are hospitalised. 11% are in intensive care

lynette I’m not being awful here, I’m honestly not, but do you really think the government know or care how people will entertain their kids?

lljkk, key workers need public transport. People who don’t need it for essential purposes should stay of it for the foreseeable future so those who do can maintain a distance between themselves and other passengers. We all need to stop non essential travel now. We do not want to wait until people are catching this left right and centre. The time to change our behaviour is now.

@Piggywaspushed I'm glad you said that about the preparation for a pandemic. I asked my head teacher what I was to say to kids a) about potential options for exam and b) about the reality of portentously school closures and he said that as yet the local authority don't have any kind of plan about either. Decisions will be taken at a national level about exams and he simply didn't know about anything else. We don't have any information at all. We have had several emails referring us to the advice being sent out nationally, which was also sent out to parents, but beyond that not a single thing has been done. And I too teach quite a niche subject and just got the last of the content covered last week. I'm seriously worried about the impact of this on a whole generation of young people, never mind the recession it may cause. And I have no clue what the financial implications are for me either.

Closing the schools would be pointless without keeping DCs away from parks, soft play, restaurants, etc. They would also need to stay away from shops and supermarkets, so even if you had one adult available to stay with the DCs in the house, someone else would need to provide them with the basics.

I suspect they will close schools and say that children must stay at home. Some people are fuckwits and will ignore that. Most will realise that its important.

I am thinking that the government should go about this in a phased way avoid shutting schools for as long as possible but ban all the extra gatherings outside of schools.

Firstly advice to elderly people and those with underlying health conditions to avoid crowded places, possibly to isolate and most certainly to avoid travel abroad ESPECIALLY CRUISES.

A ban on mass public gatherings especially indoors -concerts, theatres, cinemas, soft play etc

Keep schools open for as long as possible but ban all non essential school business- assemblies, school concerts, school trips and extracurricular activities.

A ban on school exchange programs which usually bring thousands of European students to the UK many stay with host families.

I can't help but think if all schools are closed families will just head out to the shops, parks, swimming pools,cinema, etc so what's the point ?

What I wonder is how people are chopping in developing countries? If we're a bit screwed, they must be massively so and presumably if the virus is widespread there, it'll keep coming back to developed countries too.

Coping not chopping

I was shocked initially, it then I recalled the way they were treated by the government and the media when their contracts were reviewed. They were shafted and no longer have that sense of duty that the older generation have.

Totally agree with this but also nurses are so sick of how they have been shafted with the pay issues and years of devaluation by the media/ government.
No one I know gives a shit what Boris is planning and wont be stepping in to work extra shifts.
Every retired nurse I know has laughed at the thought of coming out of retirement.
Not a chance.
You reap what you sow !

I think the ‘non urgent’ advice will come in. Of course, different people have different ideas about what is urgent but going to the cinema or swimming just isn’t, and would be difficult to justify as such.

By the way Worldometers is a bollocks site. It's the one that the Breitbart used to make the claim that abortions were the leading cause of death in the world.

I think they should close nurseries and key stage 1, or possibly primary schools, because whilst younger children don't seem to get very ill from the virus they pass it on, and young children don't understand the importance of hand hygiene.
For adults and secondary school (and maybe upper key stage 2) strict hygiene rules should be followed, and anyone ill should stay at home. But obvs. That won't happen. Survival of the fittest I guess so that's our kids being orphaned

OP is a doctor working in the NHS. I’m inclined to believe him, and trust his judgement, more than I trust a politician or bureaucrat

Doctors (if indeed the OP is one, it is a faceless forum after all!) show bad judgement just as often as everyone else. It isn’t a shield against incorrect decision!

@severalboxes I've been thinking about this too. I think it will "burn through" urban areas quite quickly but in the rural hinterland a lot of people /villages may avoid it completely. Either way, I think it'll be "done and dusted" in poorer countries within a few months - the population will either be dead or immune.

I think the worst situations we'll see are in the refugee camps in Greece and Syria. People packed together in desperate conditions, no chance of isolating the sick, poor sanitation. God help them, it'll be awful.

@maddy68 Children rarely catch it? Why, because their hygiene standards are so stringent? Children may not usually be affected by it, but they are the biggest propagator of viruses like this spreading through the community. DS is at nursery and he brings home a new bug at least every fortnight. Viruses go through schools and nurseries like wildfire.

Not sure about shutting schools yet. I think if they do that, they need to also look at other strategies that would have a bigger impact, including barring entry to people who've been to seriously affected areas in the last 14 days etc. But I don't think they will, until it's too late.