Time to close the schools

[PaddyF0dder]

I can’t believe I’m saying this. I’m a dad to 3 very young boys. Our eldest is nearly 6 and is on the spectrum. Our twins are nearly 3. They’re hard work when they’re stuck in the house. I also work as a doctor in the NHS. Closing the schools would be a nightmare for us.

I think we need to do it, and do it early.

Watching how this virus is spreading, seeing how harmful it’s been in other countries, reading the stats on transmission, burned on healthcare etc... closing schools and nurseries really seems to be the most logical step.

The UK is at a turning point. We’re entering the stage of sustained transmission. We may already be too late. But we might still have time to enact draconian measures early as opposed to late. Closing school and nurseries. Limiting travel around the country. It seems inevitable that these things will happen, but doing it early might save the lives of the sick and vulnerable.

I honestly don’t know how my family will cope with it. We have absolutely no family support re childcare. We both work hard jobs in the NHS. I wish there was a better option. But the more I look at the facts of this outbreak, the more obvious it gets.

We need to reduce viral transmission. There are many ways, and all must be done. One such way is to close schools and nurseries. We need to do it now.

Who said they were doing their exams in September?

Yes, I know it will cause extra stress and anxiety. Doing exams is stressful. Pandemics are, too.

My bets are on a two week Easter extension!

Anyone who thinks closing schools now is a bad idea needs to go away and research what is happening in hospitals in Italy currently.

I think so as well donkey

I think the next fortnight will see cases rise quite dramatically.

Before closing schools (which are just local gathering places) think it's more important to try to limit social contact more widely. WHO advice for individuals who are well is to "avoid agglomerations and frequency of closed crowded spaces" while also practising good hand hygiene so for example ask people who can work at home to do so, those who can stagger their commute/avoid travel to do so, those who can avoid work travel/large national and international conferences to do so. There will be people doing essential roles that have to travel or be present in person (farming, health care, emergency services, civil service, transport workers). If you've ever travelled on the tube in rush hour the advice to catch your cough in a tissue and throw it in the bin, then wash your hands, is just impossible to actually do, and for now we are doing this every single day to go to non essential jobs.

Something to consider is that many nurseries, after school clubs etc are barely surviving financially - changes in funded hours etc have already put many out of business.

I would expect that a fair number would not have the financial resources to survive a sustained enforced closure. Expenses are high, staff will still need to be paid, rent won't go away either. And even for those who are insured for revenue loss the time taken for the insurers to cough up may well be too long.

I think this is a godsend for this government. Brexit fallout can all be blamed on COVID-19, the virus appears to be nicely discriminatory and will reduce the long-term burden on the NHS and social care, and it’s come along at a time when several turds we’re flying fanwards for BoJo.

The government report is freely available and easy to read. There is evidence the school holidays helped break swine flu transmission. I think they will consider shutting schools and recommending working from home. They are additionally adding in emergency sick pay legislation and talking about tax breaks for small businesses.

At this stage is not eradicating the virus - it’s allowing the transmission to slow and spread the cases into spring and summer to try and stop a peak during winter.

Easter holidays will be here soon anyway and in some areas of the country they are due to start end of March. However, it is whether they can wait that long really

In Italy Leave is cancelled for health care workers

There are ways to work from home around GCSEs and A levels. Looking at the way DS’ school used study guides and google classroom, I don’t think that is imposible for them and their teachers to work from home. It can be done, will affect the end result but the damage would be much less than if the schools are closed at exam times (and the people who revise the exams are unwell to do their work)

Iamps My child’s school has advised all Exam students that this is the plan in place by exam boards. I don’t know where school got this info from.

People are living in cloud.cuckoo land if they think this is not going to happen soon. It is just a matter of it happens soon enough to have any effect.

Italy have just increased thier lockdown area to encompass 16million people in the north. Schools in the whole country are closed until after Easter at least.

I personally think it is too little too late but it may slow things down a bit

"The WHO official mortaility rate is 3.4%. Italy's mortality rate from outcomes is currently 28%"

The 'official' mortality rate is calculated from confirmed cases of coronavirus. There will be significant numbers of people who have been infected with and recovered from coronavirus who have never been tested.

Where are you getting your 28% figure from? Italy does have the highest mortality rate by country of confirmed cases but that was 4.5% last time I checked.

children....spread it to their parents and grandparents and everyone else because their hygiene is poor. They are super spreaders. That's why we shut schools - to significantly reduce transmission

Which they will still do if not actually put into self isolation at home. Better contained in school surely?

You massively underestimate the amount of people coming and going around the world. I know of 5 people who have been through Hong Kong airport since this started and 3 families skiing in Italy. I also know that the majority of my friends have travelled to somewhere different and many have been abroad since January. Surely they will be the real spreaders not the kids doing the same bus journey everyday to the sane school.

DH and I are having a discussion later today about what we do regarding the DC going to school. We may well take ours out of school by the end of this week/beginning of next. Schools will be closed anyway after easter IMO (with the possible exception of years 11 and 13) and so a few extra weeks out of school isn't going to harm their education significantly.

But I am fortunate in that mine are old enough to stay home alone (15 and 12 ) and won't go out if told they can't. Plus I mainly work from home anyway and DH can do a lot of his from home too if he needs to. Fully appreciate that for many people with primary aged children who can't stay at home alone the thought of it is a logistical nightmare.

Those who think it can't happen though just need to turn on the news and look at Italy. This is unknown territory. The world hasn't seen this for 100 years since Spanish Flu. You can't expect things to just carry on as normal.

If the risk is that children spread the disease to the immune compromises and elderly then why not quarantine those groups?

I agree with you OP

Why close down schools but not close down public transport.
Anyone?

lamps and totally, the ST has run an article today which confirms what totally is saying.

I am a teacher and my school has not even apparently discussed this. the PP who said as a governor that have discussed pandemics at every meeting for years made me spit out my tea. I am also a longstanding governor and we have NEVER discussed pandemics.

I am intrigued by the two PPs who know of their (private) schools plans: let me not reassure everyone that these schools are unusual. Most are just bumbling along as normal.

From a personal point of view, I am increasingly alarmed. I have not finished teaching the spec and teach a subject very very hard to teach via satellite. DH is also a teacher and has a heart condition. Not sure why people are so keen to keep putting teachers - who , after al , are not children in the firing line of the virus. It is , after all, one job where workers never 'work from home'

Shutting schools would only work if people then stay home w their kids, not start taking them out and about.

They won't. See this thread, see other threads. A lot of people dont understand epidemiology and think that changing their habits is a sign of weakness and we need to keep calm and carry on/show Jerry virus it cant beat us/pick your WW2 metaphor. They'd stay in for about 3 days then start booking cheap holidays to Italy.

When the press starts publishing stories of utter crisis in the hospitals, when people are dying at home, then people will be ready to isolate. It's just human nature and British culture.

@partystress agree, now the blame would be in Europe and the virus rather than on their senseless policies. On the other hand though, they may loose a huge number of voters to the virus.

So in the interest of saving the bulk of those voters, I hope they decide to close schools early.

A few days ago I woud have said the idea was over the top, but depending on what the figures look like over the next few days it could happen. Seeing what is going on in Italy right now is slightly scary, millions of people facing a lock down.

The aim is for 80% of us to catch it mildly, so considerably fewer than 20% of those infected need medical intervention, and then for herd immunity to protect the rest, much like with vaccines.

Happy to be corrected on this, but I didn't think that catching COVID-19 provided immunity? So if 80% of us caught it mildly, it would surely just keep going round and round?

@HasaDigaEebowai Italy has imposed these measures exactly because the children (teenagers) were still going out and that has clearly increased transmission.

I have that from a reliable source.

would