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worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 14

999 replies

usernameishistory · 06/03/2020 01:03

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previous thread here

Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
GalOopNorth · 06/03/2020 18:16

Chipotle can I have your source please?

WouldShouldCould · 06/03/2020 18:17

Sorry if already linked but this couple are still showing as infected a month after forst being diagnosed.

Meruem · 06/03/2020 18:18

Random18

It’s just about preparation. Not stock piling or panicking. For example my mum has a dog and lives alone (far from me so I can’t help) so I discussed with her what she’s going to do if she can’t take the dog out because she’s too sick. How will she get food etc? (Bearing in mind delivery slots will be like gold dust if this really all kicks off!) Those who would struggle financially, look into it now, what help could you get? What would happen re your mortgage or rent. It’s just about informing yourself now, just in case. Anything that would be an issue, have a plan in mind if at all possible (I know it isn’t always possible). Then, if we do get a sudden explosion of cases and things get difficult, it’s much easier to stay calm. Someone who has buried their heads in the sand and pretended it’s nothing to worry about could find themselves regretting it.

GalOopNorth · 06/03/2020 18:18

Because I am happy to change my mind in the face of new ‘literal facts’

Dramadrama · 06/03/2020 18:18

They have teams of modellers and epidemiologists working on this so why do we doubt they can do their work? Not being snarky, just wondering.

SansaSnark · 06/03/2020 18:19

I'm assuming that the testing centers have been strategically placed to get a good sample of the population. If those centers were picking up large numbers of community transmission cases, the program would be extended.

We can't test everyone in the UK with cold/flu type symptoms. That is a physical impossibility. Therefore, we have to prioritise and be strategic.

I honestly believe that we are doing things pretty well with regards to testing. For those who believe we are not, how would you increase testing capacity, and which diseases (e.g. TB, HIV, whooping cough) should we stop testing for? Or should we stop forensic DNA testing instead?

Laniakea · 06/03/2020 18:20

... because the UK is fed up of experts ?!?

MilkTrayLimeBarrel · 06/03/2020 18:21

Not one case in my county or nearby towns - wish we could pull up the drawbridge and keep it out.

GalOopNorth · 06/03/2020 18:22

I agree Sansa that we are at full capacity with testing. But the choice on who is tested means that we would be missing a lot of cases of community transmission because the criteria for testing are narrow.

It’s not a criticism of the testing per se, but it is a criticism of the conclusion that there is little community transmission - it won’t be found if it isn’t looked for - at least not till a week or so down the road when those people start turning up with breathing problems.

AvocadoOwl · 06/03/2020 18:23

Why do people think in Italy it is spreading so fast?

I think the problem with Italy was that significant local transmission had been going on completely undetected for several weeks. It came to light when several people were admitted with viral pneumonia but by then it had already spread to large numbers.

It hasn't been 2 weeks since affected towns there were locked down so in theory new cases today might have been infected before the outbreak there came to light. They should see things start to slow soon if their measures have been effective. Fingers crossed.

Bouledeneige · 06/03/2020 18:25

My work has instituted plans to reduce risk. We are encouraged to maintain cleanliness, washing hands etc. Avoid shaking hands - I had a meeting this morning and we all kicked each other's shins which was fun. And we have to take our laptops home every night in case of the need to work at home. That's a pain in the arse as it's heavy and tonight I'm off to a social with a super heavy bag and I will be worried about putting it down and having it nicked.

Interestingly I'm in London. I've seen around 6 people in the last three weeks on transport with masks. As I came out this evening the pubs were crammed with Friday night workers. Now I know lots of you will think they're crazy but life goes on even when there are flu outbreaks. This is no different.

Iusedtobeapartygirl · 06/03/2020 18:25

Regarding working from home discussed earlier...

My DH is a senior government scientist. He thinks the IT system will crash if they all try to log in from home. In fact he says it can barely cope when a few of them try to use it in the office!

He's not involved in medical science but I suspect that all government departments have similar standards of IT.

Rather concerning.

Blueberryham · 06/03/2020 18:26

How far ahead are Germany in terms of cases? We’re they about a week ahead of us? So in a weeks time we would expect about 600?

hankyspanky · 06/03/2020 18:27

@MargotB7 I've compiled a list of movies I want to watch and books to read. I've also bought raw ingredients to make things from scratch, so will be experimenting with various recipes!!
I've got a couple of online projects I'm currently working on which will keep me busy for a few months.
Not to be morbid but, I've also made it clear to my family my wishes for DNR etc and compiled a folder of important documents.

Plan for the worst and hope for the best! Have a lovely weekend.

SansaSnark · 06/03/2020 18:29

@GalOopNorth I accept what you're saying to an extent- I might be wrong. I'm not convinced I definitely am wrong about there not being lots of community transmission cases in the UK.

It's worth looking at evidence from other countries. In the Netherlands, they found community transmission cases when they had only done a few 100 tests. In Spain, they found a case who had sadly died before they even had known cases in the country. In the US, there's clearly lots of community transmission.

In the UK (as in all countries), there are obviously some undetected cases. I personally think the number of undetected cases in the UK is smaller than in other countries. Testing is one area where we are being really responsive- as soon as it came out about undetected cases in ICUs, we said we would test everyone in ICUs.

It's worth noting that if we increasing testing numbers, the system will get clogged with tests of people who don't have coronavirus (like most of the tests being done in the UK), and it will be harder to pinpoint cases.

I do think we are following a slightly slower rate of increase in cases than other European countries- however to keep this up, we need to change our travel advice, and possibly even implement some aggressive travel bans.

If people are still travelling relatively freely to all of Europe bar 11 towns, then we will soon have lots more cases in the UK and be unable to continue to contain it.

SansaSnark · 06/03/2020 18:35

@Blueberryham I think Germany is probably a better model than Italy- however we may not follow the exact same trajectory as Germany. At the moment, our numbers of cases seem to be increasing a little more slowly than theirs were at a similar stage. It's hard to know if we will see 600 cases in 5 days time, as Germany have done.

I'm personally predicting a bit less than that, but I think others on this thread are predicting more.

Germany does have the disadvantage of people being able to cross borders with other European countries more freely than the UK, and having a border with France where there are also lots of cases won't help.

idonttrustboris · 06/03/2020 18:37

Do PHE update the numbers over the weekend?

mrshoho · 06/03/2020 18:42

twitter.com/critconcepts/status/1235632042802589698?s=19

A snapshot of an ICU unit in Italy set up for covid 19 patients.

SansaSnark · 06/03/2020 18:43

PHE did updates over the last 2 weekends.

Random18 · 06/03/2020 18:44

Mereum I agree with that.

It's the same I did with Brexit and is the approach we normally take with most things actually.

I know many on here want much more drastic measure taken now. I don't necessarily support them now, but if government decided drastic measures were needed then I would comply.

usernameishistory · 06/03/2020 18:46

@MargotB7
Good for you and enjoy your weekend Wine

OP posts:
Camomila · 06/03/2020 18:47

Italy is a much more 'touchy' society than the UK.

Just watching RAI 3 news atm, all the news is corona virus related, the media is trying to find a few positives (people in Vo Euganeo lining up to be retested to be part of a study, an older Dr coming back from working abroad to help, an emergency c-section on a mum with corona virus, baby is fine) but overall its not great.
DM says that when she sees the UK news its like the Italian news 2 weeks ago.

Albatross123 · 06/03/2020 18:47

All those saying 'its just flu' need to read this taken from the Guardian a few minutes ago - the number in hospital is frightening.

worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 14
ofwarren · 06/03/2020 18:51

NEW: France reports 190 new cases of coronavirus and 2 new deaths, raising total to 613 cases and 9 dead t.co/eUoE2b20hL