worried about coronavirus (covid19) part 14

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Helpful links

WHO media speech for world plan of action

updated data on this page every day at 2pm until further notice.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

It's not just like flu www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/yes-it-is-worse-than-the-flu-busting-the-coronavirus-myths

Why WHO not declaring a pandemic www.newscientist.com/article/2235342-covid-19-why-wont-the-who-officially-declare-a-coronavirus-pandemic/

Worldometer www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

BNO News bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

Link to WHO report www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

The Lancet coronavirus hub - latest research and comment www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

JAMA coronavirus research centre jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/pages/coronavirus-alert

At least the Milton Keynes death doesn't look like community transmission as he had been on a cruise.

The death rate in Italy is high and as a lot of their positive cases have only been diagnosed in the last few days or so, it could be as high as 6/7%. If no one else was diagnosed from today, how many of those positive would die? We also then get to a stage of no critical care beds so the death rate increases. There should be a total travel ban in and out of Italy. I don’t get why there isn’t

The list is wrong it doesnt state person from stockport who went to wythenshawe hospital

It says it’s from 9am yesterday morning so is quite
Old news.

145 brits are on that newly hit cruise.

Birmingham says 1-4.
There is one case reported that we are aware of. A man who caught it at a conference in the UK and is now self isolating.

4 new cases of #coronavirus in #Poland

Thanks for the local authority numbers.
I knew about cases locally to me, but so far they appear to be contained.

I work in a Nursery (not locally to where I live) , and I’m wondering for how much longer it will be safe to put messy play activities out such as play dough, water play, shaving foam, cornflower gloop etc.

I’ve been hoping that they would publish where confirmed cases are located, so I can make an informed decision as to when to remove this type of play. So far no confirmed cases near to my place of work.

What are other Early years classes/providers doing at the moment?

8th case in #Slovenia

Thanks for the link to the locations. It's really important that it doesn't make people complacent though. Just because it says 0 in your local authority it doesn't mean there are no cases. I have read many posts from people saying they want to know where the cases are so they can take extra precautions. We all know that our testing has been very limited so we should really be expecting the virus is everywhere, whatever the figures say, and taking the same level of precaution.

Why such a high death rate in Italy?!? Either they're underdiagnosing or it's mutated, surely?

I don't know how many tests they are doing a day but they were struggling to get enough kits to test.

Given that 3/4 of known cases are currently hospitalised with the other 1/4 self isolated at home, that does suggest an awful lot of undiagnosed milder cases and the known cases are largely because they are serious enough to be in hospital.

You want to hope there are a hell of a lit of unknown cases (which given the number of imported cases throughout the world from Italy, is likely)

Wouldn't wythenshaw come under manchester?

Ooh thanks. There's actually none near us for the moment. that you know of!!!

If there are 163 cases confirmed then really that should be x 2 at least if not x 3 for the real number, they just haven't shown symptoms or been tested/ got results. Sorry voice of doom here.

@Bottleofcorona The death rate in Italy is going to be high due to the cases of people being infected whilst in hospital- a bit like US death rate is high in the USA due to cases in the care home.

I do agree that the pressure on intensive care beds will become a factor.

I'm not sure about a total travel ban in and out of Italy, but I would like to see stronger travel advice especially to Lombardy.

*I have scanned the thread for references to BJ committing £46m to the fighting the covid19 cause.

Can anyone translate this please?

I mean is it a significant contribution? Or a woeful drop in the ocean?*

On the basis that £80m is being spend repairing Big Ben...

I know we definitely have a case In my area and it's not listed in the area data, this is only stated cases up to the 5th isnt it?

justchecking1

Thanks for the tip for finding the graph on worldometer. But that's one depressing graph!!

www.standard.co.uk/news/world/police-australia-coronavirus-taser-a4380356.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1583510154
Man tasered after fight over toilet paper as coronavirus tensions grow

A man was tasered by police after allegedly starting a fight over toilet paper as tensions rise amid growing coronavirus fears.

The 50-year-old man allegedly confronted officers and two other people and "became aggressive" in a shop in Tamworth in New South Wales, Australia.

He threw tissue boxes at a female employee, according to police, and then reportedly grabbed a female customer by the throat when she approached him.

The man only stopped his alleged attack when another customer came to the woman's aid.

After the police were called, they found the man in a nearby supermarket, where he reportedly put one officer in a headlock and tried to grab his gun.

Police tasered the man and charged him with common assault, resisting an officer in execution of duty, and assaulting an officer in execution of duty.

Toilet paper war's. Coming to a supermarket near you soon.

So, as a bit of a comparison (figures all taken from wiki, so may not be 100% accurate):

New cases in Italy from 22/02/20 onwards (rounded to nearest 10):
59
80
80
90
120
210
230
340 (29/02/20)

New cases in Germany from 28/02/20 (when they were on about 20 cases)

27
13
51
33
38
52
109 (05/03/20)

UK cases from 28/02/20 (when we were on 20 cases)

1
14
4
12
33
30
47 (Today)

These are new cases, not total number of cases, and it does suggest we are on a bit of a slower trajectory than other European countries- and I do think we are testing widely. There are obviously some undetected cases in each country, but I don't think there are loads in the UK (there are more in Italy).

This to me is actually quite encouraging from a UK point of view- although the next few weeks are obviously super critical.

That is a crap location map. Why is Reading the only town named when it is in fact in Berkshire and everywhere else is just showing counties? (Apart from London boroughs.)

We are not testing widely. Or not as widely as others.

Tests still limited to Sentinel areas and known travellers/ links to diagnosed cases.

Even though we know there is community transmission now.

I think they are only able to test about 2000 per day.

When Italy had 550 cases , Prof Neil Ferguson estimated in an interview that there were probably 80-100 THOUSAND cases in the population there.

@SansaSnark Thank you it is really helpful to see if there is a particular pattern. I am hopeful that for all the criticism here PHE and the NHS have been vigilant from the outset whereas Italy may have dropped the ball a little allowing things to take hold.

OMG the figures for Italy and Switzerland are far higher than I anticipated.

I think its time to batten down the hatches.

It does worry me that tensions will grow here. As all the “it’s just flu” brigade cross over into panic mode. The middle ground, which I think most on this thread are on, is the sensible, safe stance to take in my opinion. We have informed ourselves from the outset and made calm plans for our families. Those who are sticking their heads in the sand will only need a nudge to start panicking. When they realise they didn’t take it seriously enough and over compensate.

Comparison of testing density (per member of population) here

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

Italy are testing more than us.

One of the new Poland cases is a british man who flew in 2 days ago, according to twitter

Because it is by local authority & Reading is it’s own LA (& it definitely is not in West Berks, nor is Woodley).