To think this coronavirus hysteria is completely OTT

[tacosplease]

I’ve just read that the NHS has declared the coronavirus “situation” a level 4 incident - the highest level of emergency.

There are only 51 known cases in Britain out of a population of 66 MILLION. None of these people have died. In the extremely unlikely event that you do catch it, the chance of death is just 2%.

So, I simply don’t understand why people are getting so hysterical about this. Far more people catch the common flu every year and no one starts panicking over that. Every time you use your car you have a 1/20,000 chance of dying yet people still drive and don’t think twice.

AIBU?

No, possibly the numbers might not materialise, OP, but we need to take seriously the possibility that they might and take proper precautions, like practising good hygiene and self isolating when we have flu like symptoms (as I'm doing right now).

I don't understand why some people sneer about this. There haven't been any deaths in this country as yet, but there have been several thousand worldwide so the likelihood is that there will be some here too.

With most flu viruses, at least some of the population are immune due to vaccination or natural immunity. This is a completely new strain. None of us are immune. That means it will spread quickly, there's nothing there to slow transmission. That's the danger - the exponential growth meaning that so many people will be ill at the same time.

Think of the impact on your own workplace/kids' school if 1/5 of the staff are off. This is what makes me laugh about the people who refuse to prepare or take it seriously. It's going to be a right inconvenience for the healthy. But it's going to be horrendous for the elderly and chronically ill. Even if only a small % need hospital care, that's going to be more than the NHS can cope with, which is why the government are taking it so seriously.

Probably best to educate ourselves rather than just assume it's all a fuss about nothing.

There is nothing anyone can do yet apart from practice good hygiene and apply common sense.

Exactly - that’s all we can do. Getting overly worried and wound up about it is pointless and helps no one!

@XingMing I would have to know 1000 people with flu for one to statistically die. I'd only have to know 50 with coronavirus.

The idea that this virus is just like flu is outdated and people need to stop spreading it. The virus should not be a cause for panic at this stage, because most people do have mild symptoms, but it is a serious disease.

51 people mostly active mostly younger people - so are less to have serious side effects - however may I remind you that a British man has died from the cruise ship in Japan & do we know if any British people have dies or been serious ill in other countries? Do you assume being British protects you from the infection? Look to Italy which has an aging population & as for China I suspect -sadly - that many deaths or severe illness have not been counted as the disease was not acknowledged until late Jan when a doctor was warning about it in Nov (I think) - there may be people incubating this disease & thank you for discounting the lives of people over 50 as not being important. Consider this; many specialist dr & nurses & other staff are likely to be over this age & their chance of severe illness or death is high (correct me Oh experts!) but isn't there a thing called viral load which means that the more virus you are exposed to the more likely you are to develop a serious disease? Nb the dr in China dies & he wasn't old by any means. Nobody knows for sure if they have an underlying condition that might mean YOU might be vulnerable. Think about that - Asthma?

Flu is not worse.

Firstly, this is a novel virus there is no immunity to it either through vaccination or because a strain has been circulating for several season with only slight mutations. Populations that would normally have some immunity such as the elderly, the at risk and frontline healthcare workers will have none.

Secondly, the statistics so far suggest the corona virus is more contagious and has a higher mortality rate than flu. Comparing the number of people that get flu in an entire year/flu season with the number of people who’ve contracted a novel virus in the last 2-3 months doesn’t make a great deal of sense.

Assuming we don’t manage to keep this in a containment stage, and Ignoring worst case scenario stats for the moment, the NHS is operating at above it’s optimal bed capacity even during the non winter months. What do you think might happen. OP, when normal flu season meets increased demand due to a novel virus and high levels of staff absence due to lack of immunity among staff?

Are you still sure that declaring Level 4 might be OTT?

We don't have immunity to it so although 80% is worst case scenario, healthcare specialists in many different countries have also come to a similar number. The containment itself would mean huge change to society in itself, and it is very likely that people who are just about managing now may lose their job, not get sick pay, lose their flat/house, get into debt, etc. The consequences are far reaching. I think there is a case for being realistic about this. It's not good.

I remember the panic over Mad Cow Disease ( EU countries banned British beef), really freaked me out at the time. I do think the media whips things up. My friend has just returned from Thailand and told there’s no fuss about it over there.

I find the sneering on here worse than people seeking advice when anxious. I don’t mean you op but posts by some who blunder in and call anyone who is concerned stupid etc.

@jasjas1973
I think you were being hysterical regarding the NHS not coping and there seems no evidence that cases are not being managed to date in the UK.
I don’t think it will be worse than China as we now have more knowledge than the Chinese had at the beginning of January eg with regard to the incubation period.
When I wrote this would not be a distant memory in two months, I meant worldwide, not just the UK. It will certainly not be a distant memory for me as I have been living with the consequences of the outbreak for over 5 weeks now and it will take several months, i imagine, for my life in China to return to normal.
Am sure the Chinese also regret the lack of action taken with regard to wild animal markets. New regulations and controls were introduced last week.

We have a case locally, and I'm not actually that worried about dying, but because no one has immunity the thought of looking after 2 sick kids and being sick myself for 3 weeks fill me with dread. I had Swine Flu last time there was a pandemic and it was evil.

Had all the flue jabs etc and so t mi d a cold, but fever and cough is so nasty when you have to look after kids.

But yes I agree that 80% is worst case scenario and probably won't materialise. But t doesn't mean that the threat from this disease isn't very real.

The estimate is mid June before it burns out so we are not getting off lightly. So 3 months of people being sick isn't fun

Well obviously more people get the common flu because its been around about 100 years. CONVID-19 has only been here 3 months. Plus 20% of people getting it seem to be needing some kind of hospital treatment, that certainly isnt the case with common flu.

As somebody above said; exponential growth is the key factor here. Its spreading very slowly at the moment but as time goes on the growth has the potential to be massive. If you do not understand exponential growth you probably will not understand why people are so concerned. Check youtube for some videos to help you understand.

@ShanghaiDiva Thank fck they are doing something about the virus stews they keep cooking up in these barbaric markets

I thought the 80% of the population gets it was just the absolute worse case scenario? What % of the Chinese population do we think have had it? Obviously we wont know until it's all over but I think there cases are decreasing now aren't they?

I can see schools closing sometime in may tbh. Maybe a week either side of the spring bank week, or maybe extra weeks at Easter. And businesses being told to make wfh happen where at all possible or non essential workers being told to take leave etc.

@friendineed
Indeed! This whole situation is a huge loss of face for China so let’s hope strict controls are maintained and we never have to deal with anything like this again.

To put it in perspective. Cases are now reported to have slowed in China. They have a population of 1.4 billion people. 83,000 cases of Coronavirus, 2,945 deaths. What percentage of the Chinese population have died? I can't even calculate that percentage its so tiny. Nearly 3,000 out of 1,408,526,449 people.

Well obviously more people get the common flu because its been around about 100 years. CONVID-19 has only been here 3 months. Plus 20% of people getting it seem to be needing some kind of hospital treatment, that certainly isnt the case with common flu.

Well that's because there's a vaccine for 'common flu', which those of us with underlying health issues have every October. There's no vaccine for Covid-19.

China put in extra stringent measures to keep it at bay, some would say ott as per the op but it obviously helped.

Number of new cases in China is falling - no new cases in my city for over 7 days.
I doubt we will ever know how many people had it. Am sure plenty of people had it in December/ January with perhaps mild symptoms that they dismissed as a cold.

I totally agree with you OP. People are panicking as they seem to be taking the probability of worst case scenario happening as100% which of course is not correct.

Yes it could be very serious and impact the majority of us and those we know in various ways from mild to severe to fatal.

But there's literally nothing any of us can do other than regularly wash our hands. You can't stay indoors alone for the foreseeable future. Even if you avoid crowds, every time you step outside your front door you are very likely to come into contact with other people and it only takes contact with one infected person for you to then be infected.

So afaic the best and only thing to do is keep calm and carry on. And I'm speaking as someone who's DH is immunocompromised and has asthma.

I agree that people should be vigilant but not hysterical. On another thread someone actually said 'it's the end of the world as we know it'. That is ridiculous! Lots of people feed off drama and propagate ridiculous false myths. That is the current danger imo.

It's fucking ridiculous. Some people are being whipped into a frenzy and can't sleep at night, I'm more worried about them having a heart attack then anything else.

China is also maintaining a careful balance between relaxing controls and not allowing the number of cases to increase. Eg where I live some restaurants now have permission to open with reduced hours, office workers are back, but schools are still closed.