To think this coronavirus hysteria is completely OTT

[tacosplease]

I’ve just read that the NHS has declared the coronavirus “situation” a level 4 incident - the highest level of emergency.

There are only 51 known cases in Britain out of a population of 66 MILLION. None of these people have died. In the extremely unlikely event that you do catch it, the chance of death is just 2%.

So, I simply don’t understand why people are getting so hysterical about this. Far more people catch the common flu every year and no one starts panicking over that. Every time you use your car you have a 1/20,000 chance of dying yet people still drive and don’t think twice.

AIBU?

Op but people need to plan for the worst case scenario......but hope it doesn't get that far.
I work at a university and we've been told to ensure we're able to WFH as there is a possibility of us closing at some point. We've also banned all international travel.

My DH is a senior manager at another university (and not prone to hysteria) and they're planning for a similar situation.
I'm not seeing hysteria I'm seeing people planning and preparing. That's sensible.

Tacos,

You need to understand exponential growth. If my case numbers double daily, after 5 days I will have ‘only’ 32 cases, after 10 days, still only 1,000, but after about 20 days I am up over 1million, and if 2% die, 20,000 deaths.

Now, it may not be that bad as we understand far more about how illnesses spread than we did then. China has done a brilliant job at containing it but they are a dictatorship. People like you won’t listen to advice and will spread it.

We may dodge a bullet by containing it until summer and it mutating favourably. On the other hand we may not and it could mutate to be worse,

If eminent virologists and epidemiologists are worried, and they are, do should you be...

Actually I think total bed capacity is more like 140,000 with about 4,300 being intensive care beds

2% fatalities from 80% of the population affected is still over a million deaths

But again, that’s worst case scenario...

I really think drastic measures need to be taken, like a 2 week quarantine for everyone, stay at home, everything shut down, on a set date so it can be planned.

And who do you think would be looking after people in hospitals and care homes, and caring for people in their own homes, keeping utilities running so that everyone had water, electricity, gas, telephone, internet, looking after livestock on farms, keeping the emergency services going, taking care of national security, keeping tv and radio and websites going so that people were kept informed, and all the other essential things that need to be done every day, that can't be done from home?

The comparison with flu isn't valid at all, because people with underlying health problems can have the flu jab. There's no vaccination for Covid-19. It's a very big difference.

I know how serious flu can be; I was nearly hospitalised last year when a very bad bout of it became pneumonia. I had the flu jab in October, looking forward to a much easier winter virus season.

Then came Covid-19. I also have Chronic Fatigue Syndrome so I'm vulnerable. I also have 2 adopted DDs with attachment issues, so of course I'm concerned!

It's not hysteria, it's concern about how this will pan out, as no one really knows.

Apart from the health aspect to me and my immune compromised child, who if she gets it will be seriously ill and I don’t want to think further than that, there is the financial cost.

My OH business relies heavily on airlines, they are already cancelling flights, it also relies on the tourist industry. If this dries up, which it will if things get bad, we will go bust.

He has to continue to pay for vehicles and staff, even if they are off the road and not working. He still has all the overheads of a company, rent, rates, salaries, but no income.

I work for myself and an agency on zero hours, in a University. If students aren’t in, I don’t get paid and don’t qualify for sick pay.

But don’t you worry love, he only employs 150 people to make redundant and be unemployed within 3/5 months and I will have no income either when Unis. close. You’ll be okay I’m sure.

Tacos, Are you hard of thinking? Or does it make you feel big to sneer at others? Or perhaps you have not seen or heard the scientists, medics and government officials all around the world who are seriously concerned?
Or do you just know better than them all?

You're right OP, some of the figures quoted here are 'worst case scenario'. But even 'moderately bad case scenario' (eg divide those figures by 2) could still be very serious.

The fact that swine flu was less serious than predicted has no bearing on whether this virus will be better or worse than expected. It's like trying to predict the weather (or any other difficult-to-predict thing) - sometimes we get more rain than forecast, sometimes less. It can be wrong in either direction.

Or do you just know better than them all?

Anyone who reads up on the 1918 pandemic, should be very worried, that came in 3 waves, each one worse than the one before and like now, no vaccine, that pandemic affected the young the most.

I don't think 1M deaths is a worst case scenario. I think worst case is probably 80% get it of which 20% require hospitalisation but can't get it as no beds therefore 10M die in the UK.

Worst case scenario doesn't mean impossible scenario.
The worst case scenario could realistically happen and as a country we need to prepare for that and try to prevent it.
That's not difficult to understand surely?

@CallmeAngelina where have I sneered at others? I’m perfectly entitled to give my view, which is that people need to stop panicking and get this in perspective. Getting overly wound up about a virus that has claimed zero lives in the UK (and only infected 51 people in total) helps no one.

I will continue taking sensible precautions (using hand sanitiser at work, for example) but I’m not going to get overly stressed and worried about worst case scenario figures that are highly unlikely to ever materialise.

YANBU , the media is going on like it’s the Spanish flu, it’s totally ott and frankly let’s the government plenty of opportunities to hide all the bad news out there, like the terrible floods, which imho are more of a problem in the UK.

I had flu in May 2008. I was a normal, healthy individual with no underlying medical conditions and I ended up in hospital with atrial fibrillation. I’m now 12 years older and have fibromyalgia. I’m not beside myself with worry but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned.

Worst case scenario doesn't mean impossible scenario.

Of course. But I feel like some people are quoting those figues as if they will materialise, when the likelihood is they won’t. I really don’t think that’s especially difficult to understand either!

I don’t think it will be a distant memory in two months. I live in China (not Hubei) and the control measure started on 25/26th January. It’s now March and I am temporarily back in the uk and it’s like ground hog day: here we go again.

The fact that swine flu was less serious than predicted has no bearing on whether this virus will be better or worse than expected. It's like trying to predict the weather (or any other difficult-to-predict thing) - sometimes we get more rain than forecast, sometimes less. It can be wrong in either direction.

Fair enough. I’m just trying to think positive. I travel by tube every day so am probably more exposed to germs than a lot of people!

ShanghaiDiva You accused me in no uncertain terms of overreacting a few weeks ago... Hysterical i think when i said the NHS wouldn't cope.
This is going to be far far worse than China as we do not have the powers, means or the population acquiescence to put in the measures China has done so well.. so far.
Great pity they didn't put in similar measures to close down these live animal markets after SARS.

Let's also remember that that China puts the death rate at 2% Who at 3.8% but the rate in Italy looks closer to 14%. The Chinese stats are unlikely to be true.

I don’t blame people for taking it more seriously than the general flu

But let’s hope it passes as you say

YABU
One of my old school friends is an infectious disease specialist. He is currently advising the UK Gov.
He is extremely concerned.
There is nothing anyone can do yet apart from practice good hygiene and apply common sense.
There has already been community transmission but, if everyone stays calm and follows the advice, we may be able to keep the rate of infection slow enough for the NHS to cope better with.

Great pity they didn't put in similar measures to close down these live animal markets after SARS.

Agree with this.

A 2% death rate for the entire population who catch it would be terrifying but it's far far lower than that for your average healthy adult.

Yes the death rate is higher amongst elderly or those with other health conditions but that can be said for 'ordinary' flu.

The government estimate 80% of the population are likely to get it and if 2% die that’s 500,000 deaths, which is a lot

That is completely untrue. The eighty percent is worst case scenario, best case is likely not much more than we have now and it’s contained. The government is absolutely not estimating eighty percent get it.