To think this coronavirus hysteria is completely OTT

[tacosplease]

I’ve just read that the NHS has declared the coronavirus “situation” a level 4 incident - the highest level of emergency.

There are only 51 known cases in Britain out of a population of 66 MILLION. None of these people have died. In the extremely unlikely event that you do catch it, the chance of death is just 2%.

So, I simply don’t understand why people are getting so hysterical about this. Far more people catch the common flu every year and no one starts panicking over that. Every time you use your car you have a 1/20,000 chance of dying yet people still drive and don’t think twice.

AIBU?

Italy only had 20 people infected on the 21st of Feb. Less than 2 weeks later and there are 2500 cases and 80 deaths.

I don’t understand why people say that no one worries about catching the flu. I do worry about it. I don’t panic about it, but it’s a concern. It’s why I try not to travel much during flu season, why I get the vaccine every year, and why the NHS funds it.

Meh - people are getting way over hyped about this.

What the bugger are you going to do about it anyway? It lives on surfaces for up to 5 days and is airborne. Takes days to present too.

It is going to do what it is going to do.

Agree OP waaaayyy too much fuss is being made about it compared to flu.

A lot of those figures are made up of those who medically presented. Some people don't get many symptoms such that there will be a record.

We are not getting the true picture

Best case scenario for swine flu 2009 was 3100 deaths, worst case was 65k.

www.theguardian.com/uk/2009/jul/16/swine-flu-cases-rise-britain

Later figures suggest 138 in the UK died www.nhs.uk/news/cancer/swine-flu-deaths-examined/

small (NOT) point - there is a discussion as to whether the Italian outbreak is a mutation - this virus has RNA strands (part of DNA) which may mutate (from what I gather - have read - disclaimer!) & the mutation may possibly make it less dangerous or infectious OR the reverse & mutation is more likely to occur the more people contract the virus.

@tacosplease it's really interesting that despite the majority of responses clearly explaining to you why there is serious concern (not panic) right now you've chosen to respond to three people that agree with you. Of course you are free to do your own research and make up your own mind but the numbers, if you actually listen to what the experts are saying, are scary.

Assuming you know maybe 200 people, 160 of them are predicted to contract the virus. Of that 160 people, 3-5 people could die within the year. Obviously that depends on your age/location etc but those are the figures we are talking about. I live in a small town of 8000 people. That means 6400 are likely to contract the virus and 192 could die.

I don't know anyone that died of flu in recent times though. Do you? Now add in a healthcare crisis, lack of medication, overwhelmed Intensive care units and the knock on effect is that everything else has a higher risk because there will be limits to available healthcare.

The reality is that this will hopefully peak and then subside but there is a good chance the peak is going to hurt a lot of us. If not directly then to the people you know.

That is why people are concerned. It's not just flu.

@shouldhavecalleditoatabix very well put. And I can’t bear the callousness of the ‘it’s just old/ill people who die” brigade - those are our families, our friends, our communities.

"But some of my friends and family are starting to get really worked up about it all despite the odds of actually catching it being absolutely tiny - and I worry for them!"

@tacosplease

YABU if you still think there are "absolutely tiny" odds of the people you know getting COVID-19. In the last few days they have come out to say it is likely to become endemic in the UK -- meaning circulating widely in the general population. This means we will all likely be exposed to it at some point.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/01/the-worst-case-scenario-for-coronavirus-dr-jonathan-quick-q-and-a-laura-spinney

If anyone thinks we are overreacting, they should have a read of this....

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK22148/

I don't think it will be the end of civilisation as we know it, but it could and should limit what everyone does in normal life. It would be sensible to have extra bread in the freezer and ibuprofen etc at home. If nothing happens, you'll still use it up eventually. I have stocks of tinned tomatoes and pasta because we use a lot, and some extra wine (priorities), but nothing is going to replace fresh onions, yet we're at the tail end of last year's crops and this year's are only now going into the ground... same with spuds.

Top up the freezer and do your shopping outdoors in the market.

If, heaven forbid, my DM or DMIL are infected then, at 85 and 91, they may not come through it but they have had their heydays. Both were nurses, and would agree with this statement. If my DH (64) who is still running his company and working as hard as his younger staff members gets it, then his underlying heart issues may be the decider, so he will be cautious about exposure. Common sense should prevail.

The biggest loss to society would be if there were high levels of mortality in the 45-65 age range. Where there is a wealth of knowledge and experience that could not be easily, quickly or cheaply replaced.

Also consider the fact that it has now hit countries like India, which due to population density could end up being horrendous. Then think about the fact that they have many relations here who ave travelled to and from and will continue to do so. He true story of what happened in China nd continues to occur may be being downplayed. I don’t imagine I will see individuals in this country being carted off against their will...

If it's loose here, then 20% of people will be off work at any given time. Some of them will need to be in hospital- at the same time. Some of them will die.

There are not enough hospital beds for this. Most hospitals are at full capacity for adult beds already. Even if you opened hundreds of extra beds there are no nurses to staff them.
I work on a paeds ward with 40 beds. We have one cubicle allocated for covid for a paeds population of 10000. That's not too bad as they say kids don't get it as bad as adults but what is worrying is that on 5 out of 7 shifts we are 2 staff members down. Add in sickness and self isolation and we get to the stage where we have to close beds to keep staffing levels safe.
Imagine this on adult wards and how this will impact on mortality.

They think it's far more prevalent in the US than figures suggest, due to their testing regime and the cost of healthcare. Lots of people simply wont come forward unless they are really seriously sick.

Assuming you know maybe 200 people, 160 of them are predicted to contract the virus.

But again - and this can’t be emphasised enough - that’s worst case scenario figures. Interesting stats from @OverlyLeafy on swine flu.

Actually WHO states the global mortality rate is 3.4%. The NHS is under strain with circulating seasonal flu and chronic illness complications from diabetes, copd and cardiovascular disease. Add a new disease where noone has expertise but 20% patients require beds and intensive care...its of major concern to the knock on effects to other types of healthcare needed as well as the availability of healthcare staff who may get sick themselves. It's a perfect storm of demand/capacity and uncertainty...public health and economy nightmare

I’m betting in 2 months time it will all be a distant memory.

If only! According to the Chief Medical Officer, in 2 months time the cases of Corona could peak, with more cases continuing for a further 4-6 months after. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

The fear is because many people, myself included, can have the flu jab each Sept/Oct, which although not 100% failsafe, is a good general protection against the current season's flu strain. However there is currently no such protection against Corona, which is scary. All we can do is treat symptoms once people catch the virus which is frightening for many people with existing health conditions.

Do you realise how high 2% is? It's one in 50. It means if you and all your close and extended family got the virus, one of you would die. It means of the 51 cases we have so far, one of them statistically will die.

The death rate of flu is 0.1%. Coronavirus is at least 20 times more deadly than flu.

Glad you read the post OP; don't think anyone else did

Your perspective will determine how concerned you are. The difference is: are you only thinking about your own well-being or about society as a whole? The economic cost, the strain on healthcare, and if it’s 10 times more deadly than the flu and keeps going around every year, you have 6,5 million people dying every year and that’s on top of deaths from other illnesses (including the flu). Plus... it’s a bit douchy to not give a toss about the more vulnerable in society. 1 in 5 people have an autoimmune disease. The fact that it’s a novel virus makes it extra dangerous. You personally know people who could die from this disease. Even if you don’t realize it.

Oh I’m not forgetting that but if you take into account how people behave and react we will have very real problems without it being anywhere near worse case scdnario. 1) the economy - stock markets have already taken a massive hit which will filter through to the economy- as will the ‘fifth of workers off’ as will all the cancelled flights and impact to businesses. 2) the cavalier attitude people have where they don’t think it will be that big a deal so they don’t bother to take the advice given seriously and spread it about. 3) the attitude we have where we drag ourselves into work when we’re not really well because ‘it’s not that bad’. 4) the panic buyers who end up panic buying food and fuel if they suspect shortages and therefore create them.
I am not panicking about it because what will be will be and I know most people will be fine- it probably won’t go worst case scenario but I have family members undergoing treatment for cancer who have little in the way of an immune system, a mum with COPD and elderly relatives that may not survive if they were to catch it.

Do you realise how high 2% is? It's one in 50. It means if you and all your close and extended family got the virus, one of you would die. It means of the 51 cases we have so far, one of them statistically will die

Thats not quite correct, CV mortality is very much age related, much depends on the age of the victims and any health issues....As far as we know!!!

There is no spare capacity for ITU beds and no more likely to be able to be freed up for this pandemic either. So people who would survive with an ITU stay will just die as there are no ITU beds. The entire NHS bed capacity is only about 160,000.

2% fatalities from 80% of the population affected is still over a million deaths and it could be worse than 2% given the lack of ITU beds.

A million extra deaths is HUGE.

@User, do be sensible please. Out of the 200 -odd people you know, a % will be elderly, who are at much higher risk of any complications from any illness and who could just sit down for a break and expire at any time. Coronavirus appears to hit the elderly hardest, and the youngest seem to recover. I adore my mum but she and I would both trade her life in favour of her great-grand son's survival. She wouldn't waste a minute thinking about it. And a generation younger without a grandchild likely any time soon, I'd prefer my son to live longer than me if we were both infected.