(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

[OnePeppyFatball]

Part 5

The three differing viewpoints to the RAF decision is exactly why I value this thread. @Newbutoldfather's didn't feature for me, but it's valid because some people will be asking that question too.
My understanding is that Saudi pilots are not of the same standard of ours (or the US), and we couldn't really not offer some kind of help. So not virtue signalling but exploiting a situation by changing the narrative á la The Knight's Tale.

ok, ok, I do love poetry 😅

And here we have an example of the good of social media discussion. I never knew about this, but now I do.

Although, quoting from the article -

"The numbers coming out of Riyadh are frankly ridiculous. We're talking about $5 billion energy funds, $5 billion aerospace initiatives, and $4 billion sports investment programs. Oracle alone pledged $14 billion for cloud infrastructure. Defence contracts are worth $142 billion. The scale is so large it's almost incomprehensible."

Yeah. Sports washing and arms. Probably not so good.

We should not be further dragged into Trump’s war. I’m disappointed in the government.

That means we are paying extra tax to support the airforce to join the war. Our young people are at risk of being killed. Also retaliation will affect us, I think.

its not our war. The people who started it are making a ton of money. Now we are paying towards their war costs.

I hear you, and would gladly leave the US/SA to stew in consequences, all things being equal.

However gov't analysts and advisers have to take into account the future consequences of not honouring treaties, aiding allies etc beyond helping SA now, and I'm glad that the decision is for defensive help only and hope this does not change. It's a fine balance, and frankly I'm glad I'm not the one having to make these decisions.

Taxpayers funding the RAF being offset by jobs and profits generated by SA and other ME investments in the UK?

Joining the Armed Forces implies an acceptance of the risk of being killed during active engagement.

Being afraid of retaliation is how the world has ended by acquiescing to Trump's tariffs.

eta
Unfortunately it is our war to the extent that we want and need what SA produces.

This is interesting. Wichita, Kansas, Trump was doing a rally. He said this -

‘They have another one where they give you five words. The doctor actually said, “Well, sir, here’s the problem. If you do well, that’s fine. If you do poorly, it’s going to be a big story. And no other president was willing to take it,’

‘And the first question is so simple. They show you a lion, a bear, a snake and a giraffe. They say, “Which one is the giraffe?”

‘So what the fakers do is they show that and say Oh ho ho – but none of those people could come close to getting a perfect score. But I got it three times. I got a perfect score.’"

So he got a perfect score at picking out a giraffe. Source :

Trump brags about knowing what a giraffe is at bizarre Kansas rally | News US | Metro News

Moving on. as he departed the WH to travel to Kansas, he done a press gaggle. And he was asked this -

"QUESTION 00:00:29-00:00:41 (12 SEC)
Mr. President, can you talk about -- have you agreed to a trilateral? Thank you. You said that you don't want to drive Vladimir Putin away from the bargaining table. What guarantee has he made you that he's willing to strike a bargain?"

His answer , and I have edited out some of the cross talk etc.

"DONALD TRUMP 00:00:41-00:01:07 (25 SEC)
Well, you'll see soon enough, because I'm trying to get a hostage that the country's been after for a long time and -- before my time. And let's see what happens; that'll be soon. We also have a very good situation with respect to Iran. He's laying off Iran, that's nice because we're hitting Iran very hard, as you know, and economically as well as militarily.

And Russia has done nothing there that we can see, and I think that's a very positive. And of course, we're negotiating with him on Ukraine. So, I'm not looking to break up negotiations right in the middle. And by the way, I have the right to do that at any time immediately. So, if things don't work out, I can always do it."

"QUESTION 00:01:31-00:01:35 (4 SEC)
What do you say to Republicans who have been speaking out against the deal?"

"DONALD TRUMP 00:01:35-00:01:58 (23 SEC)
Well, I think when they find out what the deal is, they I've had four of them call up, because I only put out word last night. I'm in the midst of negotiating a deal. When you're negotiating a deal, you don't do that to the people you're negotiating with. And the deals the Ukraine deal. Also, I'm negotiating with them on Iran because they've been very well-behaved on Iran."

"Also, I'm negotiating with them on hostages and I'm also negotiating on diesel. So, when you -- look, that's my business. When you're negotiating, you don't do that. When I tell that to Republicans that speak out, and there aren't many of them because they have confidence in me. I'm the one that got them there."

"QUESTION 00:02:42-00:02:47 (5 SEC)
Have you agreed to a trilateral meeting with Presidents Putin and Xi? Talk about Ukraine?"

"DONALD TRUMP 00:02:47-00:03:10 (23 SEC)
No, but I would do it, not so much for Ukraine because Russia, frankly, has been fine on Ukraine, they haven't been doing much. And the same thing with China. We would have it to talk about nuclear weapons and denuclearization. And any time I can have a meeting on denuclearization. So, we have more during my term, I did it we have more nuclear weapons than anybody."

"Russia is second, China is third but catching up. China was way behind and now they're catching up. It'll take them probably five years. We would schedule a meeting based on denuclearization and that's a very positive thing for the world. So, I would do it if they want to have a I just heard about it if they'd like to have it, I think it would be held in China."

"He just left here. If President Xi wants to have it, I'd have it. I'm sure we'll talk about other things like trade, too. But yeah, I would do that."

So it seems Russia if fine, not doing anything much in Ukraine, and laying off Iran. Whatever that means.

And now there are hostages involved.

And it looks like he wants another Trip to China.

Trumps triad. Him at the top. Then Putin and Xi, running the world. And he is the man for the job, because he can pick out a picture of a giraffe. All the other Presidents were too scared to do that test.

Source for transcript-

Press Gaggle: Donald Trump Speaks to Reporters Before Marine One Departure - October 19, 2026 — Trump Archive (trump-archive.com)

Edit strikethrough bug

@RedTagAlan ,

The giraffe headline is fake news.

Trump basically claimed, in not the clearest way, that because the first question was trivial (the giraffe one), it didn’t mean the rest of the test was. It contained a lot of ‘hard’ mental arithmetic.

And that gets turned into him ‘bragging about knowing what a giraffe is’. Whatever your political view, deliberately misinterpreting something to suit your agenda isn’t ethical.

I am very sceptical the Saudis are bad pilots. Why would they be? They have the money for plenty of training and an entire desert to play over.

Also, from what I understand, Typhoons were designed for close combat, being light and manoeuvrable, whereas F15s carry a lot more armaments and have a better radar capability (and range), making them better suited to standing off and firing from a distance.

The UK in total have 107 operable Typhoons. The Saudis have 75, in theatre. The Saudis also have a bunch of F15s; they are one of the only countries to have both, for use in different roles.

From this thread, I guess I can see the financial incentive to showing commitment to SA now. However, how far does that go? Will we always sell ourselves to the highest bidder? I would love to know our shady eminence Gris, Tony Blair’s, role in this! I struggle to forget Adnan Khashogi, a WSJ journalist, going into the embassy to renew his visa, and being butchered like a pig.

Take it up with Metro then. I could not find a transcript for the rally itself. Do you have a transcript you can share ?

He has talked his cognitive tests at length before. It is part of his stump speech.

Apparently it's the Montreal Cognitive Assessment he does. Although we can't be sure, because it's secret what the test he does are.

Example test here:

MOCA-8.1.8.2-English.pdf (championsforhealth.org)

I have no idea about Saudi pilots, but I remember there was an issue a few years back with their military training in the US.

DOD suspends operational training for all Saudi students in wake of Pensacola shooting - ABC News

That was 2019. The Pensacola shooting that killed three Navy sailors and wounded eight others. The shooter was not Iranian. He was a Saudi pilot.

@RedTagAlan ,

It’s literally in the article that you linked to!

‘After rambling about his math skills – ‘dividing a number by three, doubling it, subtracting 400, adding 293, dividing by seven’ – the President bragged about getting a perfect score on the cognitive test.

They have another one where they give you five words. The doctor actually said, “Well, sir, here’s the problem. If you do well, that’s fine. If you do poorly, it’s going to be a big story. And no other president was willing to take it,’ Trump told the crowd.

And the first question is so simple. They show you a lion, a bear, a snake and a giraffe. They say, “Which one is the giraffe?”
‘So what the fakers do is they show that and say Oh ho ho – but none of those people could come close to getting a perfect score. But I got it three times. I got a perfect score.’

Read that carefully and the implication is clear. He is saying that the ‘fakers’ pretend the test is ridiculously easy based on the first question (the giraffe one!) but in totality it isn’t.

It's a bit of a low bar is it not ?

That supposedly the most powerful man on the planet, the leader of the free world, aces a test designed to pick up cognitive degradation. And that he keeps going on about it at his rallies to his base.

And the headline is factual. He did boast about picking out a giraffe. Although in that sample test I posted, it's a camel.

How about the other stuff I posted? Anything on who these hostages are? And who is holding them.

@RedTagAlan ,

It is a low bar, yes, but no, he did not boast about picking out either a camel or a giraffe. You are misreading it if you think that is what he is claiming.

I don’t know anything about any hostages. After doing a little research, I believe only one American in Russia is qualified as wrongfully detained (Stephen Hubbard), but I dug this up on the fact that they are negotiating for 8 Americans detained in Russian jails.

These are people who have been detained some time, so it’s not new. However, I can see how it would be a nice result for Trump ahead of the mid terms.

abcnews.com/amp/Politics/us-nearing-deal-russia-free-multiple-jailed-americans/story?id=137415614

I am very sceptical the Saudis are bad pilots. Why would they be? They have the money for plenty of training and an entire desert to play over.

They aren't per se as they do have years of experience against Houthi attacks. My bad was in using 'pilots' as a catch all for air force capability when it's about how each force combines its pilots, aircraft, sensors and air-defence systems.
So point taken. 😄

Here we go. Fresh on the news.

Stephen Hubbard: Russia frees 74-year-old American captured in Ukraine | CNN

Not good news from the Telegraph:

“Benjamin Netanyahu is pushing for new strikes on Iran as he faces growing pressure before next week’s Israeli elections.
The Israeli prime minister, who faces probable defeat in voting on Tuesday, ordered his military to prepare for a multi-day bombing campaign targeting civilian infrastructure as well as energy and nuclear facilities.
The mission, slated for the weekend of Oct 10, did not go ahead owing to Donald Trump’s reluctance to reignite the conflict before next month’s midterm elections, people familiar with the matter told the Financial Times (FT)”
“Mr Netanyahu and Mr Trump have repeatedly threatened a new offensive against Iran, declaring they must “finish” the job against the regime. The renewed desire for strikes reflects growing political pressure on the Israeli prime minister and a last-ditch effort to regain voters’ support.
Opposition figures in Israel have warned that Mr Netanyahu, who is polling poorly, may attempt to restart combat operations to delay the election.”
“A new poll shows that Mr Netanyahu has slumped to a 12 percentage point deficit behind his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. Of those asked, 45 per cent believed Mr Eisenkot would make a better prime minister, against 33 per cent for the incumbent.
The Israeli election campaign has effectively become a referendum on Mr Netanyahu’s leadership in the aftermath of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Oct 7 2023.
There has been speculation that Mr Netanyahu may still launch a military operation even if he loses on Oct 27, because he will remain in power as the transitional prime minister during weeks of negotiations to form a new government.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has been on heightened alert since reports of the possible resumption of fighting, cancelling leave for all soldiers until the elections.”
Reports suggest another wave of bombing would be more intense than the joint US-Israel offensive launched against Iran in February.
Iran has deliberately prolonged peace talks with Washington, in an attempt to weaken Mr Trump politically before the US midterms next month.
“Senior Iranian officials told Reuters that Iran was convinced the US president was ready to continue attacks to break the stalemate in the war, which began on Feb 28.
One of the officials said: “Iran is preparing for renewed Israeli and US attacks, not for a deal with America to end the war. The clerical establishment is determined not to give Trump a political victory.”
Anna Kelly, the deputy White House spokesman, told the FT that “Iran is in very bad condition, both economically and militarily” and “the United States will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections”.”
“Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, visited Israel on Monday and met Mr Netanyahu.
At the meeting, which took place at Ovda air base in southern Israel, Israeli officials presented an updated target list in Iran gleaned from new intelligence, including so-far untouched civilian infrastructure.
Mr Trump has supported Mr Netanyahu in the run-up to Israel’s elections, calling him “strong, brave and brilliant”.
The US president, who had not publicly championed his ally for months, threw his support behind Mr Netanyahu on Sunday, crediting the “great warrior prime minister” with defending Israel from an array of threats”
“Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, visited Israel on Monday and met Mr Netanyahu.
At the meeting, which took place at Ovda air base in southern Israel, Israeli officials presented an updated target list in Iran gleaned from new intelligence, including so-far untouched civilian infrastructure.
Mr Trump has supported Mr Netanyahu in the run-up to Israel’s elections, calling him “strong, brave and brilliant”.
The US president, who had not publicly championed his ally for months, threw his support behind Mr Netanyahu on Sunday, crediting the “great warrior prime minister” with defending Israel from an array of threats”.

Excerpt From
“Netanyahu pushes for new strikes against Iran before Israeli election”
Emily Smith
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AbvqEdJDrS5inrU9K82WEpg
This material may be protected by copyright.

I think we can call this a downside to the concept of democracy.

I often wonder where all the political scientists are in this. I never studied it, and nor would I claim to know much about it. But I do spend a lot of time reading the news, and really, I think the political scientists are missing a big chance here. They could be on the telly, and be household names, explaining this stuff.

Read this opinion piece in the Independent:

“The sudden despatch of RAF Typhoons and British support forces to Saudi Arabia has caused alarm bells to ring. Britain has been called to help because of strong treaty and commercial ties – but make no mistake, we are being drawn into a mess of America’s making.
The immediate trigger for this remarkably decisive – albeit divisive – move by Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting is the latest surprise from the Houthis of Yemen. They have hit Saudi Arabia three times with greater precision and devastation than any expected. Two strikes on King Khaled Airport left more than a dozen dead and up to three hundred wounded. A strike on the commercial centre of Dhahran wiped out the three upper floors of the headquarters of Aramco, the biggest oil operator in the region.
The move plugs a vacuum left by the US. All the bluster by US secretary of defence Pete Hegseth in his “gamification” videos about the US military cannot conceal the dreadful blunder and desperate incompetence they have committed in the Gulf conflict. So far, seven months of on-off war have achieved the trashing or abandonment of a dozen US bases across the Middle East. By the end of September, “the US had lost 80 military aircraft, including a dozen F15E Eagles, the standard frontline strike plane of the US Air Force.
The Houthis are now a major factor in the complex muddle Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have spun from their ill-advised, ill-planned venture into war against Iran last February. That war continues, with ships being sunk in the Gulf and threatened daily across the Bab el-Mandeb strait in the Red Sea.
This all makes sense in that the UK has training missions already in place in Saudi Arabia, as well as Qatar, Bahrain and Oman. But it is interesting that Wes Streeting’s statement about the RAF deployment does not mention the other two key Western allies in the region – France and the USA. ”
“France has deep defence agreements with the UAE and Jordan, where it is displacing the old British interest. Yet today, Emmanuel Macron and his forces are otherwise engaged. There is genuine and reasonable concern about keeping up with law and order issues on the streets at home.
The Gulf and Arabia is less a candidate as the launch pad for World War III than the East European tinderbox, but Burnham and Streeting aren’t indulging in mission creep, because the mission had well and truly crept already.
This does mean a rapid redrawing of the hard power and defence priorities for national interests home and away.
The British contribution is modest, but practical. A flight of up to six Typhoons will be redeployed from Qatar, where they fly in a joint squadron shared with the Qatari air force. They will be used to defend the skies over Riyadh and other major centres like Dhahran. ”
“They will be used to fend off or even shoot down drones primarily. Cruise missiles may be dealt with by other means, such as the Sky Sabre close-range air defence missiles already supplied to the region.
There must be some question, however, as to why the Saudis cannot provide this kind of air defence capability and suitable aircraft themselves. After all, the British have been involved in building and training Saudi air power, as well as ground forces, for nearly fifty years.
In any case, the additional A400M transport will deploy ground and close protection staff. They will augment an A330 Voyager tanker aircraft despatched three weeks ago – as it is configured to refuel the three Saudi Typhoon squadrons, as well as the new reinforcement of RAF Typhoons.”
“What is clear is that the deterrent value of conventional US military power is at its lowest point since the final US withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975. The leadership of Trump and Hegseth is going through a credibility collapse, following the new scheme for diesel diplomacy with Putin, compounded by Elon Musk and his association with “Starlink-gate” – he blames the Pentagon – in Ukraine.
This is a vital interest for Britain (and its allies in Europe and Canada). A way has to be found to keep the oil flowing from the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula. There appears, at least for now, no alternative. But it will mean a rapid rethink and workaround for the UK and its ring of allies.
They have to work out a security regime with the allies in the region, and future-proof it against the barmy excesses of the ego politics of Trump, Hegseth and Putin. ”

Excerpt From
“Voices: Donald Trump’s lethal indifference has dragged us to the brink of disaster in the Gulf”
Robert Fox
The Independent
https://apple.news/A-yLNr32qTUStR0ER6g6j9w
This material may be protected by copyright.

Spooky @OnePeppyFatball . Is the Independent writer using this thread for research??

Gosh! I wonder why?

US reportedly to order departure of embassy staff across the Gulf
The US State Department is preparing to issue an order for the departure of embassy staff and their families from across the Gulf, a news report says.

This?
The US State Department is preparing to issue an ordered departure of some personnel and family members from US embassies across the Gulf region, three US officials said on Wednesday.

The move was due to a possible resumption of hostilities, particularly with Iran-aligned Houthi militia in Yemen, two of the US officials said.
The US Embassy in Riyadh issued a security alert on Wednesday about possible further attacks by the Houthis on Saudi Arabia, after recent deadly strikes including on Riyadh’s airport.
Two of the US officials said the ordered departures would potentially involve the evacuation of all personnel and their families from the US Mission to Saudi Arabia

https://boereport.com/2026/10/21/us-preparing-to-issue-ordered-departure-of-some-personnel-from-gulf-embassies-us-officials/

Also
2 residents killed in Saudi after drone attack on Shaybah oil field

Two residents were killed in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday morning after a drone attack attempt at the Shaybah oil field belonging to Saudi Aramco, the Ministry of Energy revealed in a statement.
The drone was intercepted in the Eastern Province, but the falling shrapnel led to the death of one Filipino and one Nepalese resident, along with injuries to two residents — one Pakistani and one Indian.
The incident resulted in a fire in a vehicle belonging to a contractor working at the field, outside the facility's perimeter, without affecting operational activities.

https://www.khaleejtimes.com/world/mena/us-israel-iran-lebanon-war-live-updates-october-21-2026

The Houthis aren't letting up.

Just putting this here and wondering how Iran will respond.

Nightmare for Trump as oil prices rocket with 12 days to midterms after report reveals president plotting 'Mother of All Bombs' Iran blitz

Oil prices spiked on Thursday after a bombshell report revealed Donald Trump and Israel have drawn up plans to unleash new attacks on Iran once the midterm elections are over.
Brent crude oil rose 2.68 percent to $111.74 a barrel on Thursday morning. The surge is a nightmare for the president with just 12 days until the November midterms, as he scrambles to lower prices at the pump.
Soaring gas prices have sent the cost of living spiraling, leaving Republicans staring down the real prospect of losing both the House and Senate in less than two weeks.
Meanwhile, American and Israeli commanders have mapped out a ‘short but intensive’ operation targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, energy infrastructure and missile and drone arsenal, according to the New York Times.

Trump has even floated dropping the 22,000-pound GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast bomb, known as the ‘Mother of All Bombs,’ on Pickaxe Mountain, a nuclear site buried deep inside granite.
Privately, officials claim the president is smitten with the weapon partly because of its nickname.
Some US planners are convinced a three-day pounding could tip Iran’s battered economy over the edge and force Tehran to cave on its nuclear program after nearly eight months of war.
Trump vowed earlier this month not to strike before the vote, and the full US armada, including three aircraft carriers and thousands of Marines, won’t be in place until early November anyway.

Daily Mail

That's the market reaction to the alleged strikes on Sirik Island yesterday, US evacuation orders and Iran sinking vessels. Wish we could see which high value individuals are leaving the region.

All signs point to upcoming restart of the kinetic phase. Assets and people are being moved.

Iran is being quiet, people expected a reaction to Sirik last night, nothing.

I think they are not reacting apart from improving their defensive posture and reactivation of the mosaic policy (where individual military posts can act independently) according to Brandon Weichert below.

What Trump et al haven't recognised is that they're going against a civilisation that has existed for over 2 thousand years who plan in generations not just election cycles.

Good show tonight with Brandon and Mario.
s

Mario is the eternal optimist there'll be a deal. Brandon having worked in Washington is skeptical and more realistic. Trump doesn't care about the midterms, many around him are afraid of him. He feels personally slighted by Iran not giving up.

Ghalibaf is trolling.

Thank you @BelleHathor . What is really strange is that I have seen no reports of the alleged strikes on Sirik Is.

Iran will strike oil facilities, undersea cables, datacentres and AI facilities across as many as seven countries in the Gulf in the event of a fresh US-Israeli attack, Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, has said.
Mehdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Mohammad Ghalibaf, the hardliner who led Iran’s negotiations with the US to end the conflict between the two countries, said Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed in principle on an attack, but could not guarantee a successful outcome. He added: “We see the next conflict as an existential threat. The third war in two years means a threat to existence. Our strategy is ‘zero red lines’.”
Mohammadi said: “We break the temporal and spatial dimensions of the conflict. The war will continue longer and in a wider geographical area than the enemy anticipates.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/22/iran-threatens-seven-gulf-countries-us-israel-renew-attacks