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Conflict in the Middle East

(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

689 replies

OnePeppyFatball · 14/09/2026 10:37

Part 5

OP posts:
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TopPocketFind · 13/10/2026 11:36

Trump posted on TS that he doesn't believe Russia and China are assisting Iran

BelleHathor · 13/10/2026 12:10

trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 10:33

Thank you @BelleHathor . The amount of money BP and Shell made in Iraq after the war, was not lost on me.

eta
And the fortunes made from slavery and the sugar trade.

Edited

To this day, all Iraqi money made from selling it's Oil must pass through an American bank account and the US must authorise what it is spent on.
[ai summary]

Most of Iraq’s oil revenues—its primary source of national income—are deposited into an official account held by the Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, rather than remaining inside Iraq. 1]

Key Aspects of Iraq’s Money at the U.S. Federal Reserve
Oil Proceeds Account: Under the post-2003 financial architecture, proceeds from Iraqi crude oil sales are paid directly to accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. 1]
Daily Wire Transfers & Dollar Auctions: The Central Bank of Iraq uses this Fed account to process electronic wire transfers and daily dollar auctions to fund imports and support the Iraqi dinar. 1, 2, 3]
Cash Shipments: The U.S. Federal Reserve periodically ships physical cash (paper U.S. dollars) to Baghdad via cargo planes, including a $500 million cash shipment delivered in August 2026. 1, 2, 3]
U.S. Oversight and Sanctions: Because of concerns regarding illicit money transfers, currency smuggling, and the flow of funds to Iran-backed militias, the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve have placed strict compliance controls, tightened wire transfer oversight, and blacklisted or restricted multiple Iraqi private commercial banks from accessing U.S. dollar transactions. 1, 2, 3]
Recent Rehabilitation Agreements: In July 2026, the CBI and the U.S. Treasury reached an agreement to allow a group of restricted Iraqi private banks to begin a two-stage rehabilitation process to gradually resume correspondent and foreign currency transactions after meeting strict governance and compliance audits. 1, 2, 3]

This is a famous debate between arch neocon Bill Kristol and anti war advocate Scott Horton from 5 years ago.
s

And the classic quote by General Wesley Clark that America planned to regime change "7 countries in 5 years"
https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna3131335
"As I went back through the Pentagon in November 2001, one of the senior military staff officers had time for a chat. Yes, we were still on track for going against Iraq, he said. But there was more. This was being discussed as part of a five-year campaign plan, he said, and there were a total of seven countries, beginning with Iraq, then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Iran, Somalia, and Sudan. … He said it with reproach — with disbelief, almost — at the breadth of the vision. I moved the conversation away, for this was not something I wanted to hear. And it was not something I wanted to see moving forward, either."

Edited to add: note the last country Gen Clark mentions Iran!

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK - Serving the Second District and the Nation - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York plays a leadership role in monetary policy, financial supervision and the payments system.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/

RedTagAlan · 13/10/2026 14:44

Here we go. For anyone who believes what Trump says. And I think we can expand that to anything he says, because all the evidence points to the man having zero concept of what the truth is.

“Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agreed.’ That’s why,”

Ah right. That is what he said when quizzed on Monday about his Ukraine war " energy ceasefire" that he had announced on Sunday.

“Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” Trump said on social media Sunday morning.

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv supported the surprise ceasefire announcement but did not know about it in advance, and Moscow declined to say whether it backs the proposal."

Source.

Trump suggests Russia and Ukraine did not agree to his ‘energy ceasefire’ before he announced it | CNN Politics

He is literarily making it up.

Trump suggests Russia and Ukraine did not agree to his ‘energy ceasefire’ before he announced it | CNN Politics

US President Donald Trump expressed irritation with Russia and Ukraine a day after he announced a so-called “energy ceasefire,” which appeared to take both countries by surprise.

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/11/politics/trump-ukraine-russia-energy-ceasefire

trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 15:07

Iraqi oil money still being controlled by the US.
Well if I were a Vz politician/businessman I'd be neck deep in corruption, devising ways to siphon kickbacks away from the hands of the US in order to avoid/lessen a fate similar to Iraq's.
Unfortunately any such money accumulated by the corrupt politicians in Vz will not be used for the benefit of their own people.

Newbutoldfather · 13/10/2026 15:14

@RedTagAlan ,

‘Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agreed.’ That’s why,”’

That is very dodgy in terms of markets! I wonder what made him say it and who made money out of it.

RedTagAlan · 13/10/2026 15:22

Newbutoldfather · 13/10/2026 15:14

@RedTagAlan ,

‘Well, they agreed. You know why? Because I said, ‘You agreed.’ That’s why,”’

That is very dodgy in terms of markets! I wonder what made him say it and who made money out of it.

Why does there need to be a reason other than he is just incapable of telling the truth? He is massively flawed as a person.

He believes his own lies. Of that I am sure.

Newbutoldfather · 13/10/2026 16:00

@RedTagAlan ,

There are numerous instances of market movements prior to Trump making statements and, obviously, afterwards. This is a crime in the U.S.

In the United States, disseminating false or misleading market-moving information is a
federal crime and a severe civil offense. The legal framework targets this behavior under market manipulation, securities fraud, and wire fraud. 1, 2, 3]

So, if Trump just made it up, it is a problem.

Introduction to federal securities fraud criminal charges.

Federal securities fraud is a serious white-collar crime that involves deceptive practices in the stock or commodities markets. It typically refers to

https://www.gjllp.com/blog/introduction-to-federal-securities-fraud-criminal-charges/

RedTagAlan · 13/10/2026 16:10

Newbutoldfather · 13/10/2026 16:00

@RedTagAlan ,

There are numerous instances of market movements prior to Trump making statements and, obviously, afterwards. This is a crime in the U.S.

In the United States, disseminating false or misleading market-moving information is a
federal crime and a severe civil offense. The legal framework targets this behavior under market manipulation, securities fraud, and wire fraud. 1, 2, 3]

So, if Trump just made it up, it is a problem.

Have you never come across one before ? I have.

In fact, 3 people I have known comes to mind. Combine the 3, and we get Trump, sort of. But he had the added thing of being born into money.

trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 16:48

RedTagAlan · 13/10/2026 15:22

Why does there need to be a reason other than he is just incapable of telling the truth? He is massively flawed as a person.

He believes his own lies. Of that I am sure.

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that Trump always lies. Sometimes he tells the truth because he wants to boast about how powerful he is and that people do his bidding. But yeh, he almost always lies, or we can be generous just say that he genuinely believes his 'truths'. Because no one can be that stupid.

Who made money? All roads point to ...

trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 16:50

This is a crime in the U.S.

Hahahaha, went Trump and the rest of the WH Regime. When did this ever stop them?

RedTagAlan · 13/10/2026 17:14

trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 16:48

It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking that Trump always lies. Sometimes he tells the truth because he wants to boast about how powerful he is and that people do his bidding. But yeh, he almost always lies, or we can be generous just say that he genuinely believes his 'truths'. Because no one can be that stupid.

Who made money? All roads point to ...

I remember one factory I worked in. The smoking shelter. " What will we talk about today, before X gets here ?" Cos no matter what it was, X had done it better, grander, bigger.

And every time, boom. And we always caught X out. Not in a nasty way. Just for the craic. X did not have a nasty bone in their body. But by jings, X would have fitted in at the Cock or the Bull.

" Hi X, Red here was just telling us they got some nice pollack at the fishing last night".

X - " I remember fishing for Marlin with the Emir of Dubai, I had to teach him"

Me to X, " I am heading down the rocks again tomorrow, wanna come ?"

X - " Er no sorry, I sold my tackle..."

You get the gist :-)

But Trump. He is a nasty fuck too.

OnePeppyFatball · 13/10/2026 20:22

Telegraph:

“Iran has intensified attacks on oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran’s forces struck six commercial vessels in and around the waterway on Sunday, a record in a single day, as part of its attempt to reassert control over the world’s most strategically important oil conduit.
Alireza Ozmaei, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that any vessel switching off its navigation and identification systems in the strait would be treated as “hostile” and dealt with “firmly and decisively”.
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, said the IRGC was striking vessels nightly.
“We target five or six of these every night,” he told state TV. “Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic.”
He also claimed that the United States was using small craft to smuggle Iranian oil on to larger tankers out at sea”
“The maritime campaign is one front in a wider mobilisation with Iran reportedly bolstering its defences, rallying loyalists and threatening a broader, harsher response against the United States and its regional allies.
It is preparing for possible American air strikes after the Nov 3 midterm elections, amid speculation that Donald Trump is reluctant to risk the political fallout from escalating the war before voters go to the polls.
Satellite images analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security show earthen barriers thrown up around the Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites.”
“The IRGC said three supertankers had been hit since Sunday.
One, a shuttle tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude, reportedly ignored IRGC warnings and tried to pass by a route unauthorised by Iran. It then struck a sea mine and burst into flames, the forces said.
A second hit a mine in the southern strait and a third, which had switched off its navigation system, caught fire after being struck on Monday morning.
Footage posted by IRGC-affiliated media showed tankers ablaze in the Gulf, with black smoke rising from their hulls.
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that at least three commercial vessels were hit in and around the strait over the weekend, including a tanker attempting to leave the waterway and a container ship entering it.”
“A drone set fire to Petro Dolphin, the Emirati tanker, near Oman on Sunday, leaving two Indian sailors missing.
Iran framed the blasts as the work of mines and its own response to intruders, while Washington said it was increasingly guiding tankers through the strait and that traffic is recovering.
Both sides insist they control the waterway.”
“Iranian officials portrayed the campaign as an act of self-defence. Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, described the Strait of Hormuz as “a red line of national security and a defensive tool”.
He argued that the restrictions on shipping were a response to American and Israeli attacks and that vessels had been able to pass freely before the war.
Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said security would not return “as long as America continues the naval and economic blockade of Iran”.
In a jibe at Mr Trump over his reported deal to buy Russian diesel, he asked: “If Hormuz is open, why has the United States reached out to Russia for fuel?”
Tehran, he added, had reached an understanding with Oman on a temporary safe corridor for commercial traffic.
Hossein Mohebbim, the IRGC’s spokesman, said it was awaiting a “final battle”.”

Excerpt From
“Iran steps up oil-tanker attacks, hits six in a single day”
Akhtar Makoii
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AqttmBYTdSfCaBbhXVzubTQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

Iran war

Follow live updates on the US-Israel-Iran conflict, covering the latest from the Tehran airstrikes to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Access expert analysis on global security implications, surging oil prices, and the risk of a broader war in the...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/iran-us-war/

OP posts:
trumpredcard · 13/10/2026 20:42

Well that's a turn up for the books. The US has been shuttling oil to tankers at sea, a safe passage Iranian agreement with Oman and ominous preparations for a 'final battle'.

And there's me thinking that for a peace agreement both sides have to be aligned. Hopefully that alignment will be on both sides wanting the war to end. Israel might agree to differ.

RedTagAlan · 14/10/2026 03:38

A Trump TRUTH re the Houthi.

"Tuesday, October 13, 2026 4:04 PM Truth Social

The Houthis are behaving very badly. I thought they learned their lesson a year ago when we bombed the HELL out of them and, at their request, stopped. They've been silent for a long time, but now they've emerged again, probably at the behest of Iran, which is a Failing Nation, with No Navy, No Airforce, the World's Worst Economy, and 301% Inflation, in a very nasty way, hitting Saudi Arabia, and purposefully trying to drive up Oil Prices, probably prior to the U.S. Elections -- NOT NICE. Somebody should explain to them that I'm not running in the Elections, I've already won, IN A MASSIVE LANDSLIDE, but I'll be there after the Elections, and I will never forget! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Ah right. So it all appears to be about him.

RedTagAlan · 14/10/2026 03:47

OnePeppyFatball · 13/10/2026 20:22

Telegraph:

“Iran has intensified attacks on oil tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz.
Tehran’s forces struck six commercial vessels in and around the waterway on Sunday, a record in a single day, as part of its attempt to reassert control over the world’s most strategically important oil conduit.
Alireza Ozmaei, the naval commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned that any vessel switching off its navigation and identification systems in the strait would be treated as “hostile” and dealt with “firmly and decisively”.
Mohsen Rezaei, the secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, said the IRGC was striking vessels nightly.
“We target five or six of these every night,” he told state TV. “Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic.”
He also claimed that the United States was using small craft to smuggle Iranian oil on to larger tankers out at sea”
“The maritime campaign is one front in a wider mobilisation with Iran reportedly bolstering its defences, rallying loyalists and threatening a broader, harsher response against the United States and its regional allies.
It is preparing for possible American air strikes after the Nov 3 midterm elections, amid speculation that Donald Trump is reluctant to risk the political fallout from escalating the war before voters go to the polls.
Satellite images analysed by the Institute for Science and International Security show earthen barriers thrown up around the Pickaxe Mountain and Natanz nuclear sites.”
“The IRGC said three supertankers had been hit since Sunday.
One, a shuttle tanker carrying 750,000 barrels of crude, reportedly ignored IRGC warnings and tried to pass by a route unauthorised by Iran. It then struck a sea mine and burst into flames, the forces said.
A second hit a mine in the southern strait and a third, which had switched off its navigation system, caught fire after being struck on Monday morning.
Footage posted by IRGC-affiliated media showed tankers ablaze in the Gulf, with black smoke rising from their hulls.
UK Maritime Trade Operations reported that at least three commercial vessels were hit in and around the strait over the weekend, including a tanker attempting to leave the waterway and a container ship entering it.”
“A drone set fire to Petro Dolphin, the Emirati tanker, near Oman on Sunday, leaving two Indian sailors missing.
Iran framed the blasts as the work of mines and its own response to intruders, while Washington said it was increasingly guiding tankers through the strait and that traffic is recovering.
Both sides insist they control the waterway.”
“Iranian officials portrayed the campaign as an act of self-defence. Kazem Gharibabadi, the deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs, described the Strait of Hormuz as “a red line of national security and a defensive tool”.
He argued that the restrictions on shipping were a response to American and Israeli attacks and that vessels had been able to pass freely before the war.
Esmaeil Baghaei, a spokesman for the foreign ministry, said security would not return “as long as America continues the naval and economic blockade of Iran”.
In a jibe at Mr Trump over his reported deal to buy Russian diesel, he asked: “If Hormuz is open, why has the United States reached out to Russia for fuel?”
Tehran, he added, had reached an understanding with Oman on a temporary safe corridor for commercial traffic.
Hossein Mohebbim, the IRGC’s spokesman, said it was awaiting a “final battle”.”

Excerpt From
“Iran steps up oil-tanker attacks, hits six in a single day”
Akhtar Makoii
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AqttmBYTdSfCaBbhXVzubTQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

Couple of interesting bits.

"Iran framed the blasts as the work of mines and its own response to intruders, while Washington said it was increasingly guiding tankers through the strait and that traffic is recovering."

I doubt they have mines in. Because there should be evidence. And that evidence would have big propaganda value to the US/Gulf states. " See this mine Iran planted", sort of thing.

And note the change in that line. " guiding tankers through the strait". I thought the claim was that they were escorting. But that could be reporting, or who was speaking.

Re mines or drones. If drones, and there are tankers being hit, I reckon it would make more sense to go for the escort ships, because propaganda again. Although tankers are easier targets.

OnePeppyFatball · 14/10/2026 16:07

WSJ:

“Two Emirati cargo ships have sunk in the past 24 hours after being struck in the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation with little precedent as Iran ramps up attacks to levels not seen since the war started.
The GFS Pride and the Cape Dao have both gone down, said Pakistan’s National Hydrographic Office, which monitors maritime activities in Middle Eastern waters. Maritime security companies confirmed the two losses and said this was the first such incident in months.
The sinkings came as the U.S. military has been successfully shepherding more Gulf oil through the strait while bottling up Iranian oil exports with a naval blockade and sanctions. Iran has repeatedly ramped up attacks over the course of the war to try to disrupt the U.S. operation, but it is rare that its attacks result in ships being sunk.”
“The last ship that sank was Malta-flagged container vessel Safeen Prestige in early March. The vessel was hit by a projectile that sparked a fire in its engine room, forcing the crew to abandon the vessel. A tugboat sent to rescue the ship was also struck. Four seafarers died and three were severely injured, according to the International Maritime Organization.
GFS Pride, a containership, was hit Tuesday by an unknown projectile a nautical mile east of Ras Makhbuq, Oman, resulting in an onboard fire, according to maritime security companies Vanguard, Marisks and Neptune. The crew of the vessel was safely evacuated before the ship sank the next day, they said.
The Cape Dao was originally attacked on Sept. 23 by two unidentified projectiles that struck its port side when it was some 15 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman. One Indian crew member died in the attack on the ship which was carrying about 170,000 tons of coal from the United Arab Emirates to India.”
“Two other containerships and a tanker were also attacked on Tuesday as they crossed the strait, according to the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, which is affiliated with the British Navy.
Vessel attacks around the Strait of Hormuz reached a wartime high last week with 12 attacks on commercial vessels, maritime-intelligence firm Windward AI said Tuesday.
About two dozen ships have been hit since the beginning of October, according to UKMTO and maritime security firms. That is more than the number of vessels struck in all of September.”

Excerpt From
“Two Cargo Ships Sink Near Hormuz, as Iranian Attacks Spike”
Benoit Faucon, Rebecca Feng
The Wall Street Journal
https://apple.news/AD4TOAZvWS8WpPdiirZeSAw
This material may be protected by copyright.

Iran Fortifying Nuclear Sites and Rallying Its People for Return to Fighting — The Wall Street Journal

Regime, convinced the U.S. is ready to attack again, sees preparations as deterrent

https://apple.news/ArUJ2ImelSJeMtwESjKf6pw

OP posts:
trumpredcard · 14/10/2026 19:10

It makes total sense for Iran to be sending a message that they're not exactly a spent force at the same time that Trump is spinning plates - Hormuz, Houthis and Ukraine.

To me, this makes the chance of a peace deal more likely, as the alternative would be the US committing to being mired in a long drawn out war if reluctant to put boots on the ground.

The alternative is bombardment that will flirt with being a war crime, and the increased suffering of civilians. US reputation will be toast for using starvation as a method of warfare.

RedTagAlan · 14/10/2026 19:21

Handy site here to look up the ships. All the photos we see are of small coastal vessels at anchor in the SOH.

GFS PRIDE (IMO 9349045), Container Ship | Position & specs (marinetraffic.com)

CAPE DAO (IMO 9219020), Bulk Carrier | Position & specs (marinetraffic.com)

These are not the small local ships we see in those photos.

Edit spelling

OnePeppyFatball · 15/10/2026 11:51

Telegraph:
“Donald Trump is lining up the “mother of all bombs” for fresh strikes on Iran.
The US military has drawn up plans to use the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (Moab) on Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear sites should fighting continue.
The deployment of the Moab, the largest non-nuclear weapon in the US arsenal, would be a significant escalation in the conflict and the first time it had been deployed in Iran.
US officials told CNN that Mr Trump had ordered the US military to develop additional strike packages targeting “a lot of energy infrastructure” including Pickaxe Mountain, Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (Moab) .
The strike plans included using the Moab and could be rushed into action before the midterm elections on Nov 3, the officials said.”

Excerpt From
“Trump lines up ‘mother of all bombs’ to strike Iran”
Emily Smith
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/ArnJgZrMiQJ65SqXxpCHBZQ
This material may be protected by copyright.

Trump lines up ‘mother of all bombs’ to strike Iran — The Telegraph

Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb has not yet been used in US president’s war on Islamic Republic

https://apple.news/ArnJgZrMiQJ65SqXxpCHBZQ

OP posts:
RedTagAlan · 15/10/2026 15:18

trumpredcard · 15/10/2026 14:52

It would be risky to use a MOAB, because they are dropped from a MC-130 Hercules. That is the only plane that can drop it. And that plane has no speed or stealth at all for doing bombing raids deep into hostile territory.

And see here -

Developed in the early 2000s at an air base in Florida, the MOAB was designed to explode in the air just above surface level (thus the "A" in MOAB), throwing shock waves along the ground (rather than into the dirt) for as far as a mile (1.6 kilometers).

trumpredcard · 15/10/2026 15:18

If I were Iran,Trump thinking of using MOABs wouldn't change my plans.

trumpredcard · 15/10/2026 15:20

Interesting cross post there @RedTagAlan , for totally different reasons. I saw it as a Trump bluff.

RedTagAlan · 15/10/2026 15:27

It would be risky to use a MOAB, because they are dropped from a MC-130 Hercules. That is the only plane that can drop it. And that plane has no speed or stealth at all for doing bombing raids deep into hostile territory.

And see here -

"Developed in the early 2000s at an air base in Florida, the MOAB was designed to explode in the air just above surface level (thus the "A" in MOAB), throwing shock waves along the ground (rather than into the dirt) for as far as a mile (1.6 kilometers)."

Source.

The MOAB Bomb: A Massive Force, But No Match for Nukes | HowStuffWorks

They only have a few. Because they really have no use for it. It's a desperation bomb, for taking out a battlefield. It has no ground penetration etc like a bunker buster. Surface damage only. Lots of damage of course.

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