US, Iran and mediators discuss terms for a 45-day ceasefire

[Twiglets1]

As reported by Axios, the U.S., Iran and a group of regional mediators are discussing the terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, according to four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks.

Four sources with knowledge of the diplomatic efforts said the negotiations are taking place through Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish mediators and also through text messages sent between Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

• A U.S. official said the Trump administration gave Iran several proposals in recent days, but so far Iranian officials hadn't accepted them.
• The sources said the mediators are discussing with the parties the terms for two-phased deal; the first phase would a potential 45-day ceasefire during which a permanent end to the war would be negotiated.
• The ceasefire could be extended if more time were needed for talks, one of the sources said.
• The second phase would be an agreement on ending the war.
• The sources said mediators think that fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a solution for Iran's highly enriched Uranium — either through its removal from the country or dilution — could only be a result of a final deal.
• These two issues are Iran's main bargaining chips in the negotiations and the Iranians will not agree to fully give up on them for only 45 days of ceasefire, two of the sources said.
• The mediators want to see whether Iran could take partial step on both issues in the first phase of the deal. They are also working on steps the Trump administration could take to give Iran guarantees that the ceasefire will not be temporary and that the war will not resume.

www.axios.com/2026/04/06/iran-war-us-tehran-ceasefire-talks

Think we need you as our interpreter of Chinese communication, Red.

Any insight into whether Xi is denying he agreed that China will buy oil from the US?

I can't but the person who posted it thinks that Trump agreed to a long term deal without realising it.

More here
https://www.onestnetwork.com/trump-in-china-day-1-deals-optics-and-the-taiwan-pressure-point/

I would agree with that article. Anyone who follows PRC news knows TW is top.

It has also been said by many on here that Iran firing missiles benefits the PRC. The more missile interceptors used up leaves other places less defended.

This is about a lot more than just oil for many. Trump might think oil is the most important thing in the world, others don't. I think the PRC gets about 20% of it's oil from the Gulf. The PRC produces more oil than Iran according to the data.

I heard that China would not necessarily contradict what Trump is saying as it would be diplomatically awkward.

It is difficult to get reporting from the Chinese perspective - but it looks like Taiwan was an important matter for the Chinese.

« The Chinese leader later warned Trump that any missteps on Taiwan could push their two countries into “conflict”.
“The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of the self governing island that China claims as its own.
“If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation,” he added. »

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/may/15/thucydides-trap-explained-xi-jinping-donald-trump-us-china-taiwan

Not sure US would have moral ground to stop China taking over Taiwan now- given an illegal war in Iran and after threats to take over Greenland.

It's not difficult at all to get such news. The Chinese Government go to a fair bit of effort to get their viewpoint out.

The Global Times is their main news in English. That carries the editorials and news of what the Party spokespeople say.

CGTN does more breaking news stuff.

China Daily if their more fluffy/cultural outlet. Though it can have hawkish stuff too.

These are all official Party outlets. China has no indy media. Every printed word is Party approved.

Taiwan is number one for the CPC. Has been since Xi took power. Also before Xi, but it has ramped up a lot under him.

It's one of these things that every other world leader seems to be aware of, apart from Trump.

It is similar to Iran really. Iran has had decades to prepare for this war, and the PRC has been planning for decades to take over TW. Every naval ship the PLA launches, every new missile they design, is all done with one aim. Take TW. And it just so happens that part of that would be taking on the US.

Part of the whole TW thing would be losing access to the Malacca strait. So they built a pipeline from the Bay of Bengal. It's why they diversify their energy supply. Because they are planning for TW.

I don’t doubt that at all- I just couldn’t find what their press was saying about the meeting. Not sure because of my search engine or it’s not been reported on as yet. Have you seen anything @RedTagAlan ?

Interesting - I’ll read more about this. « Part of the whole TW thing would be losing access to the Malacca strait. So they built a pipeline from the Bay of Bengal. It's why they diversify their energy supply. Because they are planning for TW. »

If you just search for GLOBAL TIMES. If the Party want to say something to the outside world that is where they usually say it. If they are not saying something there, then that usually means they have nothing to say about it. And that is actually saying something.

Screenshot of current page attached.

On left is a Putin story and Iran envoy story. So pals with Putin and Iran. Headline is Uncle Xi wise guidance, with a "bad Japan" story under.

On the right is the Op-ed about US/PRC, and a "how things" should go article below. Below that is a warning to the EU.

If something is not reported about the Xi/Trump thing, then it is because they don't want to talk about it.

Scroll down a bit and there is a rare earth and spies story. And a deal with Argentina for Lithium.

I am probably totally wrong about this, but you need to take the page as a whole to get the message. This page, we are pals with Russia and Iran, we don't like Japan, RARE EARTHS... and we are wooing your pal Argentina. And TW too is there... don't sell them arms.

I think of it as like a Mafia thing. Nice shop you have here...

Very positive article re China-US relations

Let 2026 be a historic, landmark year that opens up a new chapter in China-US relations: Global Times editorial

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202605/1361091.shtml

It is postive - seems to me the Chinese are suggesting pragmatism in their approach in dealing with US and trying to prevent crises, whether they be Trump’s crazy tariff roller coaster or bombing of Iran. For example:

Many analysts believe that the creative use of the concept of "strategic stability" by both sides has transcended the original meaning of crisis management between major powers during the Cold War, and has provided a new strategic framework for expanding pragmatic cooperation through healthy competition among major powers and managing differences in the new era.

Its also clear as @RedTagAlan has said too that Taiwan is a clear goal for China and will it will be interesting to see how U.S. responds!

Thanks! Good to know where to look.

Could Taiwan’s chip industry also have a big part to play in this given U.S. reluctance to sell chips needed to power AI to China?

https://www.stimson.org/2026/all-in-on-ai-how-the-united-states-and-taiwan-are-deepening-their-chip-partnership/

Oil is no longer the next frontier - its rare earths and AI. China leading in the former and eyeing up how they leap frog in the latter?

Yes indeed. And the high end chips are mainly from TW. And to a lesser extent from south Korea. Helium is needed to make them, and that comes from the Gulf. At the start of this war it was stated that there was 90 days supply in stock. No He, no high end chips.

High end chip making is really Taiwan's SoH. If the PRC invade, the machines are blown up . Hence the US CHIPS act under Biden. To set up chip making in the US. In return. TW would get better security guarantees from the US.

The whole thing is not helped by the fact that TW gets major earthquakes, so while the CHIPS act appears to work against the security of TW, it also helps secure what they make. So it is a balance.

The PRC meanwhile keep claiming they can make the advanced chips. But the evidence is weak. Especially re the chips they claim to make AI. Their claims on their "deepseek" AI were debunked I think ?

And to complicate it all, it is a Dutch company that makes the machines that make the chips, but the patents and tech are shared with TW companies.

Biden, Pelosi and TW understood all this stuff. I am sort of on the edge of understanding it.

I think one needs to be really clued up to follow it. That's not me.

@RedTagAlan
It’s like a game of chess - but certainly doesn’t suggest China and U.S. are going to best buddies now!

Well that's part of the thing with understanding the Party I think. They prefer dictatorships to democracies. Because the US might change next election. Dictatorships last longer, and can be bought off easier. None of these pesky politics to get in the way.

That is why the CPC is a danger to democracy.

And so is Trump.

It might be a chess game, but the CPC play to different rules. Trump might think he can beat them by playing them with their rules, but he can't. He should be doing all he can to get them to play fair rules.

And I think this applies to Iran, and all authoritarian states. Make the rules clear to them. For sure, be on talking terms for mutual benefit of the populace, but to be real pals means playing fair.

Best buddies no.

Good diplomatic relations- very possibly.

Strategic stability - very different

@Twiglets1
US and China are going to continue the race in rare earths, AI, diplomatic dominance around the world etc etc.

Not sure that really lends itself to good diplomatic relationships. Sorry -but if you think so, I find that somewhat surprising. Don’t call it chess, call it cat and mouse - but who is playing who?

China plays over decades whilst US on the whole- presidential term to presidential term. Especially when you have a president that rip ups the rule book.

The Party might plan over decades, because they can, but (excuse the expletive), they do fuck up an awful lot.

Eg, and relevant to this thread, they have massively over invested in EV manufacturing capacity. They totally misjudged the rest of the world not wanting all their eggs in one basket. And all those pesky things such as EU anti state subsidy laws.

But hey ho, the SOH has produced massive demand for cheap EVs. Mainly in Asia.

So that's another chess piece to add to the board. Add in solar panels and the like too. High oil prices benefit PRC state owned industries.

How can two world powers maintain strategic stability without good diplomatic relations?

I think we take different meanings from good diplomatic relations.

Naturally they are both playing the other in a sense, trying to come out on top. But good diplomatic relations doesn’t require friendship- or best buddies as you jokingly call it. Good diplomacy requires a degree of respect - respect your competitor and don’t do anything to upset them too much.

Do you think they are going to share each other’s thinking about long term plans and liaise with each other about how they can help each other? I don’t think so. That would be basis of good diplomatic relationship to me.

The term pragmatic co-operation was used - seems much more appropriate.

Good diplomatic relations can be long term or temporary and can last as long as it suits both sides. I think Xi & Trump may have discussed how they can help each other - yes, why not?

Share their thinking of long term plans? I would guess no to that one. Doesn’t mean they can’t enjoy good diplomatic relations for as long as it’s mutually beneficial to both countries.