Are people still rejoicing about Iran?

[binnibonnieboo]

When Israel and the US took out Khamenei there was a thread on how great it was. Some of us expressed that it may not end well, given how forced regime change went previously in many countries. We were told to stop "leftsplaining" to Iranians. How do those people think it's going so far?

Me neither.

There are always people who love to catastrophise. They seem to actually enjoy getting themselves and others worked up about worst case scenarios. We saw it during Covid & we see it now.

I prefer to just wait & see what happens. Not good for mental health to live in fear of imminent doom all the time.

Ha ! No I don't love to catastrophise

But petrol makes the world go around there have been plenty of articles over the past few days setting out clear comparisons with the fuel blockade years ago , Ukraine and other oil pinch points.

Things can definatly deteriorate pretty fast !
Fertiliser is being held up ! As we hit growing season...grains and all sorts.

Indian ships now passing through the Strait after talks with Iran.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckg2m8zp2n3o
More and more countries are going to do this instead of sending warships because Trump ordered them to.

If we hadn’t agreed to let the US use the air bases here we could probably have done the same.

The India situation is complicated, and likely won't succeed in the long term.

Remember that India has still not condemned the unilateral attack by Israel and America on Iran.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/direct-talks-with-iran-on-ship-passage-yielded-results-eam/articleshow/129618465.cms

Also it was after leaving a Naval exercise hosted by India that the Americans sunk an unarmed Iranian ship the IRIS Dena which Trump joked "it was more fun to sink".

There are already conversations going on within BRICS about India's duplicitous actions and always kkeeping one foot in the American camp. Even Russia is no longer offering India a discount on Oil and is actually charging them a premium.

On the UK, regardless of the Air base use we would not be allowed through. We've been fully involved in all the regional fronts over the last 2+ years. We're just more skilled at keeping our involvement hidden.

Non-alignment. A long practice of India's, allying with no one.

The strait is a way to do whatever. The IRGC can brutalise the people and proceed with weapon production knowing some will ask for passage.

We haven’t proscribed the IRGC for a start, and many will prioritise getting passage over what Iran could do in five to ten years with greater weapon capability. It’s politicians kicking the problem to younger people.

The politician is then gone and how do you deal with a stronger IRGC? Just hope they don’t fulfil their aims.

Yup, Tomato/Tomahto, India will now have to navigate this new climate based on their friendships.

Will Trump help? after all his bullying over Russian oil. Perhaps Modi can call Bibi who visited in Israel 3 weeks ago

https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260226-brothers-in-arms-modi-and-netanyahu-deep-ties-remain-unshakable

The point is that India is already running out of energy, with some restaurants already affected.

https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20260313-cooking-gas-crisis-india-restaurants-war-iran

Indeed, newspapers are reporting EU talks about the Strait too. The Iranian Foreign minister did speak around the weekend and it sounded to me like he was inviting/ expecting to negotiate.
Let's cross our fingers. I cannot afford to pay that much for fuel, plus the raising costs of everything!

I think we should still try, if we do have any stranded ships or crew there.
There are not many rules in war.

Yes we could, and to be honest who says we can’t change our mind about the air bases…

Do you want to negotiate with the IRGC?

Perhaps that’s why they haven’t been proscribed. Just generally, it must put limits on what can be negotiated, hence their ability in this situation. Everyone ignores the brutality.

Unfortunatelly, they all knew that Hormuz would be closed. There are huge number of people depending on that oil for heating, food preparation, transport, work and so on and on.
It is not "only" the price, but the supply itself.
The talks are being held by the governments of countries which depend on the movement of that oil to keep their population warm, fed and the country working.

I do wonder, indeed, how much control the Iran PM has on Iran and how much the IRGs do....

I cannot afford to pay any more than I currently pay for my bills. It is a sad reality, but it is my reality.

They stopped shooting at each other last year, after talks. We can only hope that they sort something, more lasting, this time.

Just reading now about US counter-terrorism chief resignation.
This not adding anything in Trump's favour and taking us back to Rubio's statements.
US really looks like they do not know why they went to war, what the objective is and Trump just thinks we are here to serve him with bases, ship, mine finding equipment and soldiers he will not have to take home in a box.
All this death and destruction for some men's ego? Because it looks like it!

It’s always about greedy power hungry men with massive egos! Netanyahu and Trump started this war because they both see something in it for themselves.

https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/the-war-in-iran-operational-progress-but-challenges-remain/

These are pretty good and objective war analysts, they were really informative during the Isis days.

Do you and pp take into account the ego of men brutalising citizens in Iran?

Really looking away doesn’t help those blinded, killed or acid in faces.

Did I miss that Iran has transmutated into a democracy with full on rights for everyone? Because I have not seen a single word about that. And actually I have spotted you @EasternStandard on threads where posters were saying that regime change was not one of the objectives. So, is it or is it not? Which one is Trump's latest take on it? Once all that is crystal clear, then we can assess if any of this is actually helping the Iranian people. For me, at present, it has done nothing of good and a lot of further deads and destruction.

I think you might need to go back to
that thread spotting @MushMonsterbecause you haven’t got my views correct there.

What would you do about Iran developing weapons and brutalising the people?

What would you do? Is Trump doing this about regime change or not? What you want it to be does not matter. It is Trump with his army resources, and Netanyahu, who decide what is happening.

The point being made on some threads (not by @EasternStandard as far as I'm aware) is that regime change was not the primary objective.

Also that regime change needs to happen from within, although weakening the regime could help that become more possible.

If you read it, you shall see that I did not assign the statement to anyone. But it is around mumsnet and the press and the world. Because the actors of this cannot make their minds up. We still do not know what the objectives are.

Anyway Trump is now ' taking 'Cuba. No doubt they too have a nuclear bomb or women needing to be saved or a population needing to be rescued by bombing them.

www.ft.com/content/fc621071-0ecc-440d-beb0-aee688ca33da?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Do you think the IRGC are not a threat?

You literally said that you had "spotted" @EasternStandard on threads where posters were saying that regime change was not one of the objectives. So, is it or is it not?

So you very much did seem to be holding them responsible for holding that opinion even to the extent of expecting them to answer questions on it.