Are people still rejoicing about Iran?

[binnibonnieboo]

When Israel and the US took out Khamenei there was a thread on how great it was. Some of us expressed that it may not end well, given how forced regime change went previously in many countries. We were told to stop "leftsplaining" to Iranians. How do those people think it's going so far?

It could be the case but the main issue is the regime is still in place. Plus it's not confirmed that his brothers are dead. All four of the previous leaders sons were thought to have survived - at least from the original reporting. So it's not really much of a success if another of the previous leader's sons takes over or another extremist.

I am listening to the radio and it looks like more people feel the same. Stop pandering to the huge wotsit toddler, say it srraight to his face and stand our ground. There is no special relationship with US no kore. And we better get closer to the rest of our allies.

I don't know anyone who was remotely positive about it at any point, let alone "rejoicing".

It's something when a Neocon grandee like Robert Kagan, alum of Project for a New American Century (PNAC) is basically calling Israel a strategic liability:

"PNAC was a neoconservative think tank (1997–2006) aimed at promoting American global leadership and a strong, proactive military. Founded by William Kristol and Robert Kagan, it heavily influenced the George W. Bush administration and advocated for increased military strength, particularly through the "Rebuilding America's Defences" document.

Key aspects of PNAC include:

• Mission: Promoted a "Reaganite policy of military strength and moral clarity".
• Key Personnel: Members included prominent figures such as Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, and John Bolton.
• Focus: Focused heavily on Middle Eastern policy, specifically advocating for regime change in Iraq through their policy document, "Rebuilding America's Defences," which sought to accelerate U.S. military dominance.
• End Goal: Aimed to build support for American global hegemony and the maintenance of US military preeminence.

PNAC alum advocated heavily for US intervention in Iraq and manufactured consent for US intervention in the region.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/03/28/aei-panel-claims-iraq-war-failures-and-lies-are-just-mythmaking-and-politicized-history/

Kagan and Kristol did this interview yesterday, interesting part from 16m:20s

Kagan it's kind of a syllogism when people talk about what a great ally Israel is. It it is a great ally in defence of Israel, you know. I mean,

Kristol: which is fine. I mean, they're entitled to put that first, you know.

Kagan No, no, no. Right. That that's their great concern. Look, I mean, let's face it, at the end of the day, Iran is a much greater threat to Israel than it is to the United States. So when they say that people and when people say that Israel is a great ally in the fight against Iran, I it's kind of like saying that South Vietnam was a great ally in the fight against North Vietnam, you know, I mean it was, but weren't we there to defend South Vietnam, you know?

So, um, but I think Israel also has got I don't know what I don't can't speak for what's in B Netanyahu's head, but if I were the Israelis, I would also be worried about the reliability of the American commitment over the long term. I mean, Israel has used its power with the United States now to really create a kind of hegemonic dominance in the region. uh let's say that let's say that they do get rid of this Iranian regime um and therefore is sort of involved in Iran to make sure that it doesn't come back. It is involved in Lebanon, is involved in Gaza, etc., etc. Can Israel sustain that without the United States?

Same. Can you imagine why the Iranian footballers initially wanted asylum and what will happen to them when they go back. Risking their lives to get people to notice.

Trump on pleading with allies to send minesweepers to the Gulf (because the US decommissioned theirs last year):

“Really, I’m demanding that these countries come in and protect their own territory – because it is their territory. They should come and they should help us protect it. You could make the case that maybe we shouldn’t even be there at all, because we don’t need it. We have a lot of oil. We’re the number one producer anywhere in the world times two.”

It’s all very unclear at the moment, but it is strange that the one who has been elected hasn’t made any public appearances before or after his election.
If he’s really in no state to take over, why wasn’t one of his brothers elected in the first place?
As for the regime still being in place, the war has only been going on for two weeks. It still remains to be seen where it’s going to lead.

40 days mourning apparently. Sky news had a bit about it yesterday with an ex MI6 boss. It's a theocracy, so they need to do their religious rules. He is their Pope equivalent. Religion comes first.

But it is not pleading, it is demanding! He is playing at many levels here, pushing his drill baby drill and be nice (to Putin....). And he is right, US does not need it. It is us who do!

Sure ... if he appears in 40 days healthy I will eat my hat.

Article here. Take it up with Sir John Scarlett. He said it.

'Unsurprising' supreme leader remains unseen, says former MI6 chief | UK News | Sky News

Knowing Trump he will just decide at some point he’s going to invade the UK and force the issue ! He’s that mad. You can imagine his posts about it already.

The UK doesn't need Gulf oil any more than the US does - all our imported oil comes from Norway and the US, with smaller amounts from Libya and Nigeria, none of which are affected by the current war.

But everyone, including the US, needs the Gulf open again - because we all pay the same price for oil regardless of where it is produced. And that price has doubled since the war started. Just because the US is a net exporter of oil doesn't mean they get a discount - they are being hit with huge price rises just the same as everyone else.

Why would US pay more for an item that they are producing internally?
It is not international trade, but trade within their own borders.

Is it a religious requirement to completely stay out of public eye for the 40 days of mourning, even when elected the new supreme leader in wartime? Who knows.
We’ll see what happens after the 40 days are over I suppose.

If there is any rule that ties their internal oil prices to international markets, they can change it any time they want. It is their own soil, own product and many of the big oil companies are American.
While we have to trade internationally.
Even if the supply is not at risk itself, the prices today are rather high. And we would have to jump through many hurdles to control the price with trade agreements with our suppliers.
Trump is a bullie, but not stupid.and he knows where he can get his money from Europe. Tariffs, fuel prices, further involvement in a war we did not start, further pressure from Putin, and further restriction to trade.

@Namingbaba but if loads of other healthy sons could take over why give it to one apparntly missing a leg in a coma

Because oil is sold on a free market and oil companies aren’t charities. Why sell a barrel at $50 when someone will pay $100?

Im sensing some panic from trump .
We could be facing a global catastrophe ,BP ex man saying in weeks food shortages will hit us and all the rest .
Petrol rationed.

I think it's a good thing the USA has said enough re Iran however I don't think it's been thought through. I know they had to be a surprise when they attacked but the strait seems an odd oversight.
Seeing as this could have deeply serious impacts on us with food rations ,petrol rationed and the likes ....I think it's panic time unless that straight is opened.

@DaffodilsandDillies the Supreme Leader is elected. It is not inherited. I have no clue if there are any other sons that qualify for the post.
Also, if the new Supreme Leader is in a coma, that means that Iran is now in the hands of the Revolutionary Guards, which are the ones who do the actual torture, imprisonment, killing and terrorising of Iranians and other Middle East areas. No idea how much control the Prime Minister would have.
We do not really know whether this war is going to leave in place a milder fairer government or an even worst horror. And this is of extreme importance. Yet Trump did not seem to have a set plan.
But let's pray for a better future.

@MushMonster my point was to the poster who said he's got loads of sons .
So if there are healthy stapling sons to step in why choose one so badly injured !

Yes, I was wondering about that too.
It looks like he was injured (possibly badly) on the 28th of February, yet elected the next supreme leader on the 8th of March.

I'm not taking it up with anyone ... time will tell.

Sorry but after Covid I'm not buying any "call wolf" predictions of global meltdown and catastrophe.