Iranian War Is Not The Same As Iraq

[HappyFace2025]

Some people seem to think the current war equates to the one in Iraq in the 2000s. It manifestly is not the same.
While Saddam treated Iraqis appallingly as the Islamic Republic has done to Iranians, Iran has been exporting terror throughout the Middle East via its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and Houtis, as well as elsewhere including the UK, where 20 terrorist attacks were foiled last year (announced yesterday.)

Recent surveys and analyses indicate that roughly 70% to over 80% of Iranians oppose the continuation of the Islamic Republic, with a 2024 report suggesting only about 20% support the regime. Data indicates 89% support a democratic system.

https://gamaan.org/2025/08/20/analytical-report-on-iranians-political-preferences-in-2024/

Do you mean giving weapons to just civilians who should fight?

I would like to believe that's accurate but I don't see how it's possible at all to get an accurate, unbiased result on a question like that in such a highly controlled country full of very, very scared people.

No, obviously not. There are organised, motivated and in many ways very capable groups there but they are incredibly limited in what they can actually do. Unfortunately I don't see any actual way to achieve what I'd like to see happen. When I say provide them with arms etc. I do realise it's impossible to start massing all of that just over the border, ready for them to pop over and pick up what they need just like going to Tesco! The point I was trying to make is that anything done there without the co-operation and involvement of the people themselves is just not about and for the people. It's for the many other political reasons that we all know this is about. Nothing to do with actually freeing Iranians.

...and now, after their leader of Iran and the Shia Muslims killed?

Might even be higher but as pp said, very difficult to know in a country like Iran.

The bombing seems to have consolidated the regime, not weakened its hold in the country.

I don’t think the average civilian can use arms, in a way that you or I couldn’t, but I’ve seen there is talk of the Kurds fighting. I haven’t read much on it but it’s a difficult one, using people on the ground brings another level to it.

Your view that the bombing has consolidated the regime and not weakened its hold on the country is based on what evidence?

I have no objection to you challenging the evidence I posted, provided you've got something more substantial to challenge it with, other than your "gut feel".

Not a gut feel, just listening and reading various ME experts, who have said similar.
Certainly there appears to be far greater security presence in public areas than previously.

But i accept its not evidence either, the regime have had no problem organising a successor, its a huge place, the IRGC will not magically go away.

...and their drone capacity is still very strong, the US will soon run out of precision munitions too, then what? carpet bombing?

Thing is it’s not up to any other country to bring about regime change in a country which isn’t theirs.

We justify it on the basis that we don’t think that the way the country is ruled is acceptable. But we base those opinions on our own standards.

And don’t get me wrong, I think the way that the people in some countries are treated is appalling. But change to those regimes can and should only ever start from within.

It’s not palatable to think it, because the truth is it’s not always possible if there’s a lot of support for the existing regime. But that still doesn’t give any other country the right to go in and make decisions on other people’s behalf.

We wouldn’t welcome any other country deciding that the way our country was ruled was wrong and so think they could step in and bring about “regime change”, this is no different, even if the conditions are.

So presumably then you are OK with the Iranian regime organising over 20 terrorist plots against the UK, kidnapping Royal Navy sailors, backing terrorists around the Middle East including those that have killed British citizens and attacking British shipping (Houthis).

Are you happy for this Iranian regime to stay in power and continue these activities or if not what would you propose to do to stop it?

As a former head of NATO in Europe, with exp of operations in the Balkans, NI and Afghanistan has just said "It is not clear what strategy the USA has (if they have one) what their plan is for afterwards and that its likely not to work"

So as he knows a lot more about these things than you or i, its safe to assume all we are doing is making matters far worse for everyone, not least Western individuals held captive in Iran right now, will be many many years before any of them see the light of day.

I don't think Trump had any idea about the importance of the region in world oil supplies nor what he can now do about it all.

His suggestion that he will offer insurance and protection for ships hasn't been taken up... not that it would encourage anyone to risk sailing in or out of the region.

..and now we will see interest rate increases, a return to high inflation, higher borrowing, pensions worth less.... all for nothing.

Netanyahu has apparently said that what is happening now is 40 years in the making, so goes back further than Iraq, but yes the impression I get from Lindsey Graham this is about territory, oil, control. I don't think many educated people who are up to date with current affairs doubt that unless they agree with the ideology pushing for Iran to be taken over.

There were protests in the last couple of days about what is happening to Iran from inside Israel, even.

Incorrect and vastly out of date information is being bandied around to try to justify the attacks. Every person protesting against Isreal and US attacking Iran is risking their lives, let the irony of that sink in a minute.

There is no possibility that anyone in the west could get this kind of information. Distrust of the west is at an all time high because of being attacked during ongoing negotiations twice and the allegations of west orchestrated riots (see western sources for both these things too). What is going on is to do with western power groups wanting control over Iran, absolutely nothing to do with what people there want.

Most of what we are reading in the west has come from the west.

It will all end in tears.

By this argument we should have left Hitler to it. Vietnam should have turned a blind eye to the Khmer Rouge, the French should have just left the RPF to it. Its just not that simple.

Its absolutely different if a regime is evil and a danger to those in and around it.

We dont know yet what the situation is with this one.

Have you read much on what the regime has done to protesters and women / citizens generally?

I have had a look through, and it all seems genuine data to me, but the report itself admits issues, and I think it understates them.

For example, the survey was distributed with one specific VPN. I live in a country with similar web controls as Iran and trust me, VPNs are not easy to get within the country (the VPN mentioned in the report is blocked where I am), and this means it was a very specific group that done the survey. The survey itself says it was the "highly educated" that responded. So no manual workers etc? The not "highly educated".

There is also the "regime fear", and taking that into account, I think the numbers are well off. It's really just going to be people with strong feeling that will respond. I think the lack of "don't knows" backs that up.

Also, how did they get regime supporters to fill it out ? Would supporters not be the folk who report "trouble makers " ?

I doubt people will click on random YouTube videos.

Those who think it’s just the west making stuff up could look to the brave Iranian football players in Australia rn.

I really hope the Australian Govt do the right thing and grant asylum should the Iranian women want it.

I believe Trump has said the USA will take them in.

Aside, this is the stupidity of immigration "policies" from Reform and the Tories, the team would have to be deported, no ifs or buts....

Online you will find two very different versions about both things you mention here, one from inside Iran together with videos, and one from outside Iran, I am not sure whether or not you are aware of that. I suppose the main question for you is do you think that the US and Israel are bombing Iran because of women and protesters? And definitely not about geopolitical things?

Incidentally there are different versions even between what you might have read about the protests and the information you would find on the UKGov website. It is a sorry affair.

I believe Trump has said the USA will take them in.

He knows an island they can live on

I was listening to Shiva Mahbobi (amongst other Iranians) and no I don’t think she was lying.

I don’t think anyone is when they relay the atrocities by the regime. I feel for them that it’s so hard to get information out that people can spin for the regime that none of it is happening. Just awful.

The Vietnam war was not about the Khmer Rouge. The west didn't do anything to help the Cambodians in relation to the Khmer Rouge and the Khmer Rouge had western weapons. The Vietnam war was connected to the cold war, it was the west trying to control their politics, it was an awful, awful war which would not have stopped if there had not been public opinion requiring the US to pull out. So the similarity which should be here is that public opinion is/should be requiring the US and Israel to pull out.

Hitler was a completely different situation too as Hitler told us his ideology of lebensraum and the Jewish Question for two decades and he then invaded several countries. Also Hitler was funded by the very wealthy as he was anti communist. None of this applies in any shape way or form to Iran or its leadership.

@Bringemout Bit like “greater Israel”.
The way that Israeli settlers are taking over farms and houses, building roads all over the West Bank does make one think that their will be one state Israel, from the river to the sea.
The Palestinians have no friends with power who will fight of finance a 2 State solution..

No, I don't think you shoudl be accusing people of lying unless you know that for sure. I agree.

When did Mahbobi leave Iran?

Have there been changes in Iran in the last decade or so? Are there videos on youtube from inside Iran or documentaries which say this?

Do you think the US and Israel started bombing to help women and protesters?