Iranian War Is Not The Same As Iraq

[HappyFace2025]

Some people seem to think the current war equates to the one in Iraq in the 2000s. It manifestly is not the same.
While Saddam treated Iraqis appallingly as the Islamic Republic has done to Iranians, Iran has been exporting terror throughout the Middle East via its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and Houtis, as well as elsewhere including the UK, where 20 terrorist attacks were foiled last year (announced yesterday.)

Thee isn't the appetite for it? What news are you watching? 10s of thousands have been murdered protesting and still more come out on the streets. Have you ever met an Iranian?

When did America care about people who owned something they wanted.
The Trail of Tears 1826 (I think)
Civil War about not allowing local state democracy. At the end they were forced to end slavery
Stole land from Mexico to make California.
Twentieth Century stole land in California to make reservoirs, no compensation for owners who had title for 70 years from Spain/Mexico.
Might is Right for all Americans. That's why they own guns.

But that’s the problem. People are protesting and rightly so but there needs to be leadership. Protests aren’t going to bring about change, only physical force will. And sadly there is no-one who appears willing or able to do that. Some out of fear, some because they wouldn’t want the responsibility and to be honest it would take a brave wannabe leader to step into that breach. This is why regimes almost never change overnight, change is usually only ever subtle.

Noone is talking about overnight change - the resistance has been building for some time. You said there was no appetite - clearly there is.

Trump is. Or was.

So what? Iranians know nothing changes overnight and as I said there has been change brewing for some time.

Exactly this is more about upholding Israel’s interests in the middle east since iran is funding hezbollah etc.

If we don’t join the US & Israel in their fight against Iran, then Israel could become seriously at risk. All those antisemitic middle easterners really have a grudge against that country, we should step up and protect the only democracy in the ME. It’s different to Iraq. Nobody knows what Iraq was about anyway.

Yes we do. Imaginary weapons of mass destruction.

Um the whole point is that if they were imaginary then it wasn't what the war was about!

Oh, yeah because it was about oil.

I never get the "it's about oil" claim.

As a net importer of crude oil why would the US want to start a war that increases the price of crude oil and therefore harms its economy?

Or if it's about controlling oil reserves then it would be far far cheaper for the US Government to subsidise exploration and production or to cut taxes on oil companies to increase production than it would be to start a war. Wars are a really expensive hobby and there's no guarantee that even if you win that you get to control the reserves. Iraq and Kuwait for example still have sovereignty over their own reserves.

The "it's all about the oil" claim that gets thrown around seems to be yet another ill thought through conspiracy theory, absent of any logic.

How is it a conspiracy?

Oil has been at the centre of American and Iran relations since 1953. It has shaped the reasons for America's influence in the region.

Oil is not all the same. Refineries are set up for specific crudes. The US sells some types of oil ( Texas Light Sweet for example), but has to import heavier oils.

Because different oils produce different products, also at different costs.

"A short war"
"Home by Christmas"
Do you recognise those phrases?
Iraq and Iran were at war for nearly 10 years. Casualties over 500,000.
Iran is a huge country, It has continuous history from about 3,000 years.
The IRGC is like the STASI was in East Germany, informers in every family. But now IRGC have modern technology for data gathering and unlimited arms.
The only purpose of the IRGC is to protect and strengthen the Religious Revolution
Do you think their will be a spontaneous uprising from ordinary people?

An invasion, boots on the ground? Are there are enough soldiers in the world available for such a mission?
Can Israel continue while Iran exists?
When and where will Israel and/or USA detonate a nuclear bomb to end not just the war but Iran?

How are you so sure what the Iranian people will do and how many are united against the IRGC?

Oh! no. I am not sure about anything like that.
So far the IRGC is dominant. They recently killed thousands of ordinary (mainly) young adults. I understand that there have been no defections from the Army, so the people who are unarmed have so little power against the IRGC.
There is talk of USA recruiting a new army from greater Kurdistan, but that would leave a weaker Kurdistan that could be overwhelmed by an opportunistic Iraq.

If it is fought as a 'conventional' war there will have to be boots on the ground. my earlier question; From where?

Israel has to end Iran to survive the way it has chosen. Would a small nuke provide their answer?

That was the supposed argument around the US intervention into Venezuela in order to get take control of their heavy sour crude reserves.

But if that was indeed the objective then a) Venezuela still has sovereignty over it's own oil reserves and can sell to whoever it likes (so what has changed?)and b) rather than start a very very expensive war it would be far more cost effective for the US Government to subsidise/ tax break US company investment into heavy sour tar sands production in places like Utah, where there's loads of the stuff, it's just the extraction is so expensive.

I agree that oil reserves and keeping countries with them on your side was a real driver up to 50 years ago or during the Cold War.

But it is now no longer the case and is simply used as a lazy conspiracy theory "it's all about the oil".

The people in the army could be thinking many things including being more united with the people than currently able to show. Look at how Putin gets people to fight for him, the chain of command shoots people who refuse.

If that can be taken out perhaps the people sadly losing their lives for a dictatorship would actually be pretty pleased too.

Yes @EasternStandard But Putin is still there and will be for a while yet.

And? The point is you don’t know how the people in the Iranian army are feeling and at what point they unite with the people.

Except Trump is taking the VZ oil.

Why the Trump administration is holding millions of dollars from Venezuelan oil sales in a Qatari bank | CNN Business

Also, investment in oil drilling/extracting/refining does depend on oil price.

So while it should be easy to dismiss oil as a conspiracy, it's not.

Because remember a while ago when Trump had the US oil execs at the Whitehouse to get the billions of investment for his VZ oil. Most said no, because of the cost coupled withe low oil price. Only Chevron would take it because they already use it. The other refiners who handle the Canadian Tar sands in their US Gulf coast refineries said no. Because Canadian worked out cheaper.

In that WH meeting, the oil folk would have said a minimum oil price to make investment profitable.

The oil conspiracies really are not so easy to dismiss.

You are right that I don't know how these people are feeling. However let us look back. The German Army did not overthrow the Waffen SS. The East German Army did not rebel against the use of the Stasi. The Iranian army did not revolt against the Shah or the secret police,(Savak) of the 1960s and 70s
Any opposition is treated as treason, meetings are banned. The IRGC can take whatever action it deems necessary. It cannot be challenged in the courts because there are no laws to restrain them. The IRGC cannot be challenged on the streets because the people have no weapons or training in how to use them.
In my humble opinion there can be no change without the army rebelling against the state.
The situation will have to get far worse than it is now before that rebellion happens.

It's also worth noting that the Whitehouse has dropped regime change as a reason.

Per CNN

"The US goals are to destroy the regime’s ballistic missile program, “annihilate” Iran’s naval presence in the region, dismantle Iran’s terrorist proxies and prevent it from pursuing a nuclear weapon. Leavitt said regime change was not a primary objective."

Of course it’s part of the same issue. The earlier example of Russians fighting do not to it because they want to it’s because they face brutality if they do not. Not many 20 year olds want to be part of a meat storm as they call it.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the Iranian army too suffers duress and if cut off from the command that orders them would step aside and not shoot protestors. Hopefully unite with Iranians.

I think some are keen for it to fail, Iranians seem hopeful I hope for them too.

Iranians seem hopeful I hope for them too.
Yes @Eastern I am hopeful for them too.
I see that Trump is dropping Regime Change as a reason for this war now.