Iranian War Is Not The Same As Iraq

[HappyFace2025]

Some people seem to think the current war equates to the one in Iraq in the 2000s. It manifestly is not the same.
While Saddam treated Iraqis appallingly as the Islamic Republic has done to Iranians, Iran has been exporting terror throughout the Middle East via its proxies Hamas, Hezbollah and Houtis, as well as elsewhere including the UK, where 20 terrorist attacks were foiled last year (announced yesterday.)

@RedTagAlan That gives him a way to claim a victory.
"I destroyed X missile sites. Now I can stop and I have won"
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Agree. He will claim victory no matter what.

This war could strengthen the Iranian regime. Trump has not planned this. There is no budget. No specific stock of ammo. He is raiding the exiting stockpiles that are kept to defend from and to act on, other events. He is raiding the piggy bank to go on a bender.

When the ammo get so low it leaves the US and other allies open to attack, he will have to pull out.

And then the Iranian regime can yell, " See how we have defeated the Great Satan".

It feels a lot different to Iraq. I can't imagine the US being able to topple the Iranian regime like they got rid of Saddam and the Ba'ath party. It's too deeply embedded and powerful. Plus, the Ayatollah is the head of Shia Muslims worldwide. He's not just some dictator.

Trump seems incredibly naïve and arrogant believing he can pick the next Iranian leader. There would have to be a lot of bloodshed before he got close to that, and not just in Iran.

Ayatollah‘s son has been named as the next supreme leader.

It was always going to end up like this. Anyone who thought this was going to end up in regime change was naive.

And note how there’s been not a word from Trump.

Trump will claim it is regime change.

Highly doubt it.

He said that choice would be unacceptable so he’s not going to meekly accept it now.

he doesn’t get a choice.

Trump has said a lot of things, that doesn’t make them true, and the reality is that while Trump said he will pick the new leader, he doesn’t have that power.

The Israelis have said they hope the Iranian people rise up. But many of the Iranians have been celebrating.

Iran is divided - some are very unhappy with the new appointment, others celebrating. It remains to be seen how long this leader lasts as Trump & Netanyahu are out to assassinate him.

It's not as if TACO Trump ever goes back on what he says ?

Yes he does but I highly doubt he is going to claim "regime change" as you suggested. Time will tell.

I suspect he’s board already. We know how Trump operates. He goes in, claims victory, and then leaves. Look at Venezuela, he did precisely nothing there after he’d captured their leader other than negotiate for their oil.

There has been some speculation however that Israel are looking to nuke Iraq, and interesting how there doesn’t seem to be the panic over Israel or the US’s nuclear capabilities as opposed to the ones Iran doesn’t yet have.

Why on earth would Israel nuke Iraq?

Apologies, Iran.

Iran not Iraq. Was too late to edit

I read a really interesting point on twitter about Iraq. The analyst made the point that the west often talks about Iraq as a failure. But if you look at Iraq now, it has a parliament, people vote, you don’t have an entire population living on the whims of a dictator. He argues despite everything Iraq is better off now than it was under Saddam so it’s not the failure people assume it is. He’s an arab so I think it’s fair to say he knows his beat.

I think for a lot of us in the west the failure is in the fact that we should never have been there and the human cost, both for western armies and the iraqis was immense. I think theres also the uncomfortable truth that dictators in the middle east basically suppressed islamists, this is true in Libya as well. One of the things that hyper charged islamisim (in the view of Mughal from “Tell Mama”) in the Uk was the granting of asylum to anto Gaddafi elements who were pretty much islamists. I don’t know what we were thinking there to be honest. However from Iraqs own perspective, it may well be true that whilst not perfect individual iraqis have more liberty than they did before.

I’m not 100% sure what I think of that tbh but it’s a reasonable point.

Iran is different for Israel and america, their motto is “death to america, death to israel”. They have said they would nuke Israel, I don’t think any other country has so blatantly threatened another country with nukes for absolutely no reason. It has funded proxies that have killed both Israelis and americans. It does present a threat. Not to mention the consequences for anyone who has to live with it’s proxies as Lebanon is unfortunately finding out right now.

Where did you hear that? It’s batshit, Israel won’t even admit it has nukes let alone ever overtly threatened anyone with them. Sorry but this sounds like a conspiracy theory. Bit like “greater Israel”.

I do think at some point the Iranians are going to have to overwhelm the regime, they don’t have any other option, but the regime is armed and ordinary Iranians are not. Between a rock and the devil. I really hope they get freedom but tbh I do tend to agree with posters who are feeling a little sceptical at the moment (I hope I and they are very wrong).

On the Kurds I think it’s kurds in western Iran who are being armed and Balochis, not Iraqi kurds who are also being bombed at the moment(though I wouldn’t be surprised if some hopped over the border to help out). They can’t overthrown the regime by themselves though.

If they arm the Balochistanis, that will pull Pakistan in. Their claimed territories overlap.

Similarities but also big differences. Funding terrorists throughout the regime is pretty important.

Still social media loves parrotting soundbites and the current one is 'remember Iraq' often quoted by people who probably don't remember it. Social media loves a soundbite.

Do you have any links to this 'speculation '?

One of the grievances against the Shah by the Iranian Revolution, was hereditary succession.

So kind of hypocritical that the replacement for Ayatollah Khameni is his son.

Yep, he and his backers will not like to see the falls in stock market values, when that happened with Tariffs, he quickly backed down.

I think he just hasn't thought this through, muddled objectives, didn't consider that Iran would fight back or that oil flows would cease.

I think he will seek a negotiation, then claim victory, btw he is already saying he has "won"

Well again, it's not as simple as that! I'd argue that there is the appetite - that's how so many got themselves killed - but how do you overthrow a million strong, highly armed and government supported IRGC without arms, resources, military support? That's why so many dissidents got murdered. It's not just that it's not a level playing field. It's David vs Goliath without the romance of literary fiction as the background.

One argument might have been that if the aim really were to help and free the opporessed Iranians then it should have been done by supporting those who could and would overthrow the current regime by providing funds, arms, technological support, military back up and whatever other resources they could use. Give them the tools to rise up and take back their country as Trump urged them to do - while unhelpfully conducting an indiscriminate bombing campaign. However there's not necessarily any advantage to the USA or Israel in doing that. No guaranteed access to oil etc. Of course that's not what the USA or Israel want because they don't give a shit about the Iranian people.

My personal feeling (although I and any of us arguably don't have any right to decide how a sovereign country runs its business, but I'm a mother and want my children to grow up in a safer, better world) is that yes, Iran was and is a problem for the world under its current and previous leadership. Unfortunately I also feel what's being done now isn't the way to deal with that. Do any of us - Americans, Europeans, Arabs and the rest of the world - really feel safer this week?