Hamas nearly gone?

[mids2019]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gk79xlzwjo

This is important. Hamas are nearly defeated and so is it in Israel's interests to finish the job? It will be interesting to see if Hamas actually have authority when it comes to negotiations or whether they are a busted flush outrageously demanding concessions when they are defeated.

It seems Palestinian society is descending into a barbaric chaos and I don't how these armed gangs will be represented in future Gazan governance unless it is broken up into clan fiefdoms?

@ForgesOfEmpires

"And sidebar, I find it incredibly telling that you feel entitled to speak over those of us from the region, while simultaneously trying to silence any dissenting viewpoint by positioning yourself as the moral gatekeeper of which analogies are permitted and by whom."

Although I don't have the clarity and eloquence of your writing, I would just like to add that I have a number of Jordanian friends who share exactly the same views as yourself.

If there is any patronising or colonial attitudes going on then it is very much from the left wing self hate of the West contingent who assume that they understand the Middle East better than those who are actually from that region.

Happy to do that.

Though being a previously colonised person, my empathy does lie with the Palestinians.

Genocide has nothing to do with numbers. 8000 muslim men in Sebrenica were murdered in order to eradicate muslims in the area, it was genocide. So quit the numbers thing.

Then you are applying your own history to another situation where the same did not occur, that is projection.

The idea that Jews “colonised” Israel simply doesn’t hold up historically - it is actually just completely ridiculous.

The kingdoms of Israel and Judah existed long before any Arab presence in the region. The Jewish people were repeatedly conquered and expelled by external colonisers (including Arabs!) but they were, without a shadow of a doubt, there first.

The modern return of Jews to Israel was not colonisation, it was indigenous people getting a small part of their homeland as an independent state at a time where the entire Ottoman empire (the clue that this was a colonial entity can be found in the name) was being carved up into states.

It was the return of an exiled people to their ancestral home and yes, while some of those had been in diaspora in Europe and the surrounding middle east and north africa, that doesn't erase who they are.

There was no empire behind them; in fact, Jews faced constant opposition from both the Ottomans and the British.

Meanwhile, the Arab population of Palestine, like most of the Middle East, became dominant only after the 7th-century Islamic conquests. Before that, the land was inhabited by Jews, Samaritans, Christians, and other ancient peoples.

If we’re talking about colonial narratives, then Arab conquest was a colonising force, not the Jewish return.

So while empathy is essential because this issue is complex.

Undoubtedly over centuries of colonisation this land has become home to Arabs as well as Jews and other groups. But your argument is based on the falsehood that it ONLY belongs to Arabs and Jews are foreign invaders that colonised it.

That is it is utterly false. The Jewish presence in Israel is not colonial - it's historical, indigenous, and deeply rooted. Pretending otherwise erases Jewish history and wrongly casts a people returning home after exile as invaders.

It's a great shame that as a person who was colonised you can't see this occurred to Jewish people in Israel 11 times! There is no bogeyman in this story.

It's like I said no one who understands Black Liberation would invoke Rosa Parks in a long winded justification of the Palestinians current situation @BelleHathor

Of course what you call 'long-winded' others would call a concise, intelligent, thoughtful and informative post from someone who clearly has a great deal of knowledge of this subject area.

I find it hard to agree that writing of one page, at most, on a subject of the complexity of the Middle East conflict could ever be reasonably described as 'long-winded'. But perhaps it seems that way to those more used to pithy putdowns comprising of labels and slogans.

@Katiesaidthat

"Genocide has nothing to do with numbers. 8000 muslim men in Sebrenica were murdered in order to eradicate muslims in the area, it was genocide. So quit the numbers thing"

OK if it has nothing to do with numbers then 24 Christians were killed in a suicide bomb attack in Syria leading Christians to fear for their future in Syria.

Is this genocide as well?

www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79q8p8qx1do.amp

Even before 2005 there multiple terrorist attacks on Israel by Hamas, and the PLO, Fatah etc - plane hijackings, the Munich Olympic massacre, suicide bombings, car rammings, families slaughtered in their homes, kidnappings, wars started by their Arab neighbours.

You’d have thought the Palestinians would have understood that Israel will not give up on defending itself before 2005 when Hamas was elected with a clear Charter to annihilate Israel. Why do that if they only wanted peace, then complain that Israel had to instigate security measures with an air, sea and land blockade and create an ‘open air prison of the Palestinians own making?

While much of Hamas’s senior command structure is likely dead, a significant remnant of its fighters appears to have reorganized into small autonomous cells that operate independently without comms or phones and without the need for centralized leadership or strategic direction. These decentralized units remain well-supplied with weapons and food, and are reportedly manufacturing improvised explosive devices (IEDs) from unexploded Israeli ordnance that litters the strip. They continue to release videos of their operations, regularly broadcast on Al Jazeera and other Arabic news outlets.

Their apparent objective is straightforward: to inflict maximum casualties on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and wage a prolonged war of attrition. Concerns about civilian casualties or the destruction of civilian infrastructure appear to be nonexistent. On the contrary, such actions may be viewed as useful propaganda tools, with the resulting images of devastation exploited to fuel their narrative and international support. The civilian dead are not seen as collateral damage, but rather as martyrs to be celebrated in service of their cause.

It is increasingly clear that eliminating Hamas entirely would require the total destruction of Gaza something that, short of deploying a nuclear weapon, is neither practical nor morally or politically tenable. As such, the complete eradication of Hamas as a fighting force is a deeply unrealistic end goal, and continued military action may serve only to fragment and decentralize their resistance further.

Initial strength (Oct 2023): Estimated 30,000–40,000 fighters .
Casualties: Tens of thousands killed or wounded, with estimates around 10,000–20,000 losses .
Replacements: 10,000–15,000 newly recruited fighters, offsetting those losses
Current strength: Likely 20,000–40,000 fighters, depending on reporting source and inclusion of allied militants (e.g., Islamic Jihad)

On Israeli democracy Gideon Levy doen't hold back.

I hadn’t seen this before I wrote that, but it aligns closely with what I believe is happening. Hamas likely expected and even intended Israel’s extreme reaction. It was part of the plan. Much like how the 9/11 attacks triggered a $7 trillion, 20-year Western misadventure in the Middle East, Hamas seems to be pursuing a similar strategy: to provoke a disproportionate response, isolate Israel internationally, and raise the political and human cost of occupation. They know they can’t win militarily but they can raise the price of control to an unsustainable level.

Netanyahu and his cabinet have walked straight into the trap. And the logic of the situation is brutal: if the current course continues, the cost will keep rising for Israel, for Palestinians, and for everyone involved.

What’s different now is the relentless visibility of the conflict. Social media has become a new battlefield and one that nation states have never had to accomodate before.The constant stream of raw, graphic images of suffering and casualties floods the global consciousness in real time. It’s not just a war on the ground it’s a war for narrative, legitimacy, and moral high ground, waged frame by frame on millions of screens viewwd in horror in the comfort of our own homes over a cup of coffee and a list of things to do. That visibility intensifies global reactions, hardens opinions, and makes the diplomatic space for de-escalation even narrower.

And the hardest part is, I don’t see how this ends at least not in any way that could be called good. There's no clear exit, no real victory, just a deepening tragedy for all sides

x.com/triggerpod/status/1942599632241979483

Great post ( if slightly 🙁 )

Strange you didn’t figure that out an over a year and a half ago.

Oct 7th was deliberate in its barbarity for a reason.

I read somewhere the Palestinian participants were given Captagon.

It was bait, hence all the booby traps, mines and IEDs already set up. The war for ‘hearts and minds’ was already set up with the protests, marches and a massive SM campaign.

Hamas’s military aim was to get as much death and destruction caught on camera to bring down Israel by demonisation resulting in loss of working towards normalisation with other Arab states, hatred from the West - loss of trade, diplomacy, working relationships etc and also probably to scare Israelis into ‘going back home’.

They have failed miserably though IMO.

I think in a few years when this is over and the truth comes out. Israel will come out stronger than ever before.

Good wins over evil in the end.

I think it’s more likely Hamas walked into a trap because Had October 7th never happened I do wonder what excuses the Israeli Government would have used to carry out their grand plan. This was after all Netanyahu’s plan all along. This image has been posted many times on these threads since 2023. Do people forget so easily. I’ll post it again as it’s surprising how no one ever wants to discuss or reflect on its meaning….thread after thread deflects! It’s very clear . So now if Hamas is nearly gone he’s nearly reached his aim set in September 2023. To take Gaza completely for Israel

Disgraceful infantilization of Hamas. Poor old Hamas, caught in a trap set by Israel that caused them to commit the atrocities of 7 October?
You're saying Israel is to blame for 7 October?
How did Israel set a trap? What was the trap?

Again a put down to deflect. Do you deny Netanyahus grand plan

If I answer yours will you answer mine?
Because I'll research it and think it through and give you what I honestly think, it'll take a few minutes.
But I'm not sure I can in good faith have dialog with someone who believes Hamas commited 7 October because of a trap set by Israel... are you prepared to back that up and explain it?

I didn’t say it was a trap SET by Israel. You have. You’re twisting my words. If you are acting in good faith it’s a simple matter of answering the question.

You said Hamas walked into a trap.
Which trap was that?

That map youre pointing to as evidence of a grand plan was before even 7 October. No I dont take it as evidence Netanyahu is planning to take all of Gaza for Israel. I think its defunct now anyway as 7 October changed everything. Im not answering for any of BN's plans, I'm not a supporter of his, I dont know him personally, and I hope he's gone next year. I dont support a plan for Israel to take all of Gaza, although I do support getting rid of Hamas.

Now, what do you mean by Hamas walking into a trap? What was the trap? How was it set? By whom?

@DrPrunesqualer

"So now if Hamas is nearly gone he’s nearly reached his aim set in September 2023. To take Gaza completely for Israel"

What is that photo entitled "New Middle East" supposed to show?

It's n any event it's too small a detail to see if Gaza is or is not shown as a separate entity.

Either way Gaza should a) keep it's sovereignty and b) I can't see why Israel would even want it considering everyone from the Ottomans, British and Egypt have historically viewed it as a vipers nest and were all very happy to hand it on to someone else.

I’m glad to hear some on here don’t support Netanyahu’s grand plan. In terms of my comment ‘Hamas walked into a trap’. Obviously i don’t believe Israel set up October 7th ! I mean everyone knew what Netanyahu said just two weeks before the October 7th attack and it doesn’t take much to appreciate that Netanyahu would push towards his grand plan. That is why Israel’s attack on Gaza has gone this far. That is why infrastructure has been bombed. That is why civilians are being pushed south. That is why his current proposals of coraling all Palestinians into the South has come about. To achieve this grand plan. It is significant it happened before October 7th because it shows what Netanyahu wanted all along. If all he wanted was the hostages back he wouldn’t have pulled out of the earlier ceasefire this year. So No. I am obviously not saying the Israeli Government set up the October 7th attack because 1) that’s disgraceful and 2) there is no evidence of it. There is however clear evidence that Netanyahu planned to wipe out Gaza just shortly before the attack.

But you didnt answer what is the trap? Who set the trap, or did it set itself? Can you describe the trap?

I really don’t know how else to explain it other than how I have. October 7th gave Netanyahu everything he needed to carry out his grand plan. Hamas gave him that excuse that he needed. ( all as my previous post I’m afraid I can’t explain it any simpler). I believe you are deflecting away from the very real question here Now. As I have made every effort to explain my comments can you explain why you think Netanyahu would present that plan at the UN general assembly if he didn’t mean it. He gave a long speech. He had prepared plans which he drew on with his thick red marker to emphasise the plan. Was he joking. Why do you think it isn’t ’evidence that he’s planning to take all of Gaza for Israel’. His map is quite clear for all to see. The Word Israel has replaced that of Gaza. So. Was he joking?

Of note the representative members at the UNGA and Newspapers that covered his speech in many countries certainly didn’t take it as a joke and if it was it’s a sick joke to make.

Sounds like there was no trap that Hamas walked into @dairydebris

They just decided to plan and execute a massacre, they did not walk into a trap set by anyone.

Ive answered your question.

You've yet to answer mine.

If I take what you say at face value, and agree that 7 October empowered Netanyahu to carry out a plan he'd already made... how is that a trap?

What is the trap? Who set it?

Oxford Dictionary def-

'Trap' trick or deceive (someone) into doing something contrary to their interests or intentions.

What was the trap? Who set it? Trap was your word not mine.