How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

Top brass are fleeing to Oman now apparently. . there is an internet black out but it's not clear by whom

I saw reports that the planes to Oman were potentially carrying negotiators.

They are clearly in a state of panic

Progressives think that non " Whites" are savages who are beyond civilising.
So to subscribe agency to us (I'm not White) or accountability is racist as we are " disabled" that way.
Self hate from non White progressives and racism from White progressives underpins their philosophy.
Hence the tissue paper between them and the Far Right.

The major driver for regime change may not the military but the fact banks have suffered massive cyber attacks and the internet has been significantly damaged. Basically the financial core of Iran has been destroyed and it's economy does not exist currently in a meaningful form. No regime can survive that surely?

I hope not @mids2019

A new, more moderate regime would be better for Iranians and everyone.

Interesting article on the Guardian suggesting Iran may cease to exist and you may get a federal system like the Balkans. The Kurds and Persians may wish to go separate ways.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jun/17/iranian-people-liberty-prosperity-israel-iran-missiles

The Iranian people have struggled for over a century against forces of authoritarianism, which can seem endemic in the Middle East. At numerous junctures, foreign intervention has undermined their efforts. In 1911, a constitutional revolution was crushed with the intervention of Russian troops. In 1953, Iran’s elected government was ousted in a coup engineered by the CIA and MI6. In 1980, the course of the Islamic Revolution was altered when Saddam Hussein invaded Iran. In 2018, Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, dooming Iran’s once influential and popular reformist movement, which had staked so much on the promise of sanctions relief.

With each of these setbacks, ordinary Iranians persisted. Until a few days ago, something was shifting in Iran. Tentatively but noticeably, the country was moving in a better direction, pushed and pulled by 90 million souls yearning for greater security, prosperity and liberty.

Seen in this context, Israel’s attacks demonstrate a contempt not just for life – the civilian death toll in Iran is mounting – but also a contempt for the agency and aspirations of the Iranian people. They did not want this war and they were pushing their leaders to avoid it, but Israel chose to attack to prevent a new nuclear agreement between the US and Iran.

The Iranian people are no longer in control of their futures, and they find themselves watching the trajectories of ballistic missiles, wondering what could have been.

Rightly so and with chilling historical precedent Iranian dissidents fear that regime collapse from the bombing, without any support plan beyond weasel words from those who stand to gain most ,namely, Israel

https://archive.ph/0KSYK

Israel-Iran: 'This conflict poses a dire threat to the very foundations of human civilization'
Op-Ed
Group letter

In an op-ed, prominent Iranian voices including Nobel Peace Prize laureates Narges Mohammadi and Shirin Ebadi and the filmmakers Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof argue that the continuation of the nuclear program and the war between the Islamic Republic and Israel serve neither the interests of the Iranian people nor those of humanity.

We, activists from Iranian civil society and signatories of this statement, demand the immediate halt of uranium enrichment by the Islamic Republic, the cessation of military hostilities, an end to attacks on vital infrastructure in both Iran and Israel, and the stopping of massacres of civilians in both countries.
Deeply committed to Iran's territorial integrity and the inalienable right of its people to self-determination under genuine sovereignty, we believe that continuing uranium enrichment and the devastating war between the Islamic Republic and the Israeli regime neither serves the Iranian people nor humanity at large. This conflict not only obliterates infrastructure and takes civilian lives – it poses a dire threat to the very foundations of human civilization.

Appeal to the international community

Uranium enrichment is in no way in the interest of the Iranian people. They must not be sacrificed for the nuclear or geopolitical ambitions of an authoritarian regime. We hold that the current leaders of the Islamic Republic lack the capacity to resolve Iran's domestic crises or its external tensions. The only credible path to preserve this country and its people is for current authorities to step down and facilitate a peaceful transition to authentic democracy.

We call on the United Nations and the international community to take firm, immediate action: pressure the Islamic Republic to cease all uranium enrichment activities, demand that both parties halt military strikes against essential infrastructure, and end at once the massacres of civilian populations.

¶Narges Mohammadi, Nobel Peace Prize winner 2023; Jafar Panahi, filmmaker, Palme d'Or winner at the Cannes Film Festival 2025; Mohammad Rasoulof, director, Special Jury Prize winner at the Cannes Film Festival 2024; Shirin Ebadi, Nobel Peace Prize winner 2003; Sedigheh Vasmaghi, theologian, law expert; Shahnaz Akmali, human rights activist, mother of a victim of repression seeking justice; Abdolfattah Soltani, lawyer, human rights lawyer.

So the people who wrote that letter are calling for the Islamic Republic to cease all uranium enrichment activities, demand that both parties halt military strikes against essential infrastructure, and end at once the massacres of civilian populations.

I think that is what we would all like to see, in addition to a regime change in Iran.

But how to achieve it? Hopefully the Iran regime will agree today to negotiate.

Seems Lammy and other European leaders are headed to Geneva to meet with the Iranians. Can’t be many left to negotiate with….

This is Lammy's first real test. Good luck to him.

According to the Guardian, The foreign ministers of the UK, France and Germany are planning to meet the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in what could represent a potential diplomatic breakthrough after five days of Israeli bombing.

The substance of Friday’s talks – which would be coordinated with the US – will focus on how Iran is willing to reduce or close its nuclear programme.

The Guardian points out that none of the three countries (Britain, France & Germany) have advocated externally imposed change in Iran.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/18/british-german-and-french-foreign-ministers-plan-meeting-with-iranian-counterpart

One would hope that the Iranian regime has been sufficiently chastened to now allow international teams in to fully dismantle the necessary assets, as part of a peace plan backed by the threat of resumed bombing to ensure compliance. Indeed, there are reports that three planes carrying regime negotiators have landed in Oman, where Trump’s team was or recently had been.

The dissidents know and rightly fear that if Israel and the U.S. pursue maximalist demands, aiming to decapitate the regime and destroy much of its infrastructure, the power vacuum left in the aftermath will be brutal. This won’t be some velvet revolution where the armed factions see the error of their ways and step aside. It will be civil war. The strongest not the most just will take control, while day-to-day infrastructure like power, water, and hospitals is destroyed, looted, or left hollowed out.

Israel and the U.S. have no serious plans for nation-building only lofty statements and apparent implicit support for forces rallying around the Shah’s son, who sits in Washington making videos, while real dissidents in Iran suffer in prison or live in fear for their lives.He's no Zelenskiy that's for sure.

If, as I fear, the worst-case scenario unfolds, I truly despair for humanity. We will have destroyed a country of 90 milion people and walked away with a shrug, while countless millions struggle through decades of mere survival, not life.

Though many in Israel, this would be seen as a stunning success: a failed state in Iran, tearing itself apart from within, would be a result they quietly or not so quietly welcome.

How exactly do those calling for regime change imagine this will play out? Do they truly believe that the armed forces currently serving the regime will simply see the error of their ways and peacefully join the revolution? That’s wishful thinking.

What’s far more likely is chaos and in chaos, power consolidates around those able to project force. The generals may fall, but it will be the mid-ranking officers who seize the moment. In coups, it's often this level of the military that sees its opportunity and takes it. They already have the networks, the weapons, and the operational control to assert dominance once the top brass is gone.

I truly hope so. And I hope that Trump’s maximalist threats are just that a pressure tactic to bring a chastened regime to the point where it surrenders its nuclear ambitions, fully and permanently.

After that, let the Iranian people determine their own future. They will be emboldened not broken if we refrain from destroying their country.

But above all, let peace prevail.

You could be right about Trump, there. Iran has warned of "irreparable damage" if US joins Israel. How long can Iran hold its nerve?

A dying regime with nothing left to lose would essentially be on a suicide mission. In its final moments, it might try to inflict maximum damage particularly by targeting the Strait of Hormuz, perhaps attempting to sink a U.S. warship with missiles or explosive-laden boats.

Internally, the collapse would likely trigger mass looting on an unimaginable scale. Armed groups could storm banks in search of gold and cash, while museums and cultural sites might be ransacked, stripping the nation of its heritage. Widespread chaos and disorder would follow a breakdown of law, authority, and basic services.

After all, this is exactly what happened in Iraq. There’s every reason to believe the same pattern or worse could unfold in Iran.

Does Iran even have the capabilities to inflict irreversible damage on the US? I doubt it.

I think it is very naive for anyone to think that Netanyahu will save the iranians and topple the regime. The regime must go, but can only go from within. We never seem to learn. Look at what happened to Mossadegh- who got rid of him? And who came after?

The west installed a puppet who stole money away from his citizens and yet many romantacise him and his son. It's pure delusion.

End the regime, but do not let the foreign aggressors do it.

True Hamas will lose its funding but they will never disappear.

We seem so short sighted.

The only way to dismantle Hamas is to dismantle the conditions that breed their ideology- end the occupation in west bank, relocate the illegal settlers, lift the blockade on gaza and act like the democracy, equality and justice FOR ALL. If palestinians and israelis can live amongst eachother in peace,and prosperity where no one is better than the other, no chance a militant or terrorist group can recruit; because what would they be pitching?

Indeed.

And there will be no boots on the ground for sure -so it wil be the devil takes the hindmost in country. What would happen to the nuclear material for instance- that was a big fear when the USSR collapsed - but that was peacefully and from within and why we had the Budapest Memorandum to try and prevent nucelar material getting into the hands of terroists and non-state actors.

From sky news

If the attorney general deems Israel's actions in Iran to be unlawful then the UK is restricted in its ability to help to defend Israel or support the United States in any planned attacks on Iran.
Speaking on condition of anonymity, the source said that the attorney general's concerns limit UK involvement in the conflict "unless our personnel are targeted".

https://news.sky.com/story/uk-attorney-general-has-questions-on-legality-of-israels-actions-in-iran-13385688

How likely is that given the response from the regime to any protestors?

People have tried, women in particular.

ETA this is less about regime change and more about ending nuclear weapon capability for the G7 and US.

Definitely agree with let peace prevail.

There is hope that negotiations can move forwards if all 4 representatives from Iran, UK, France & Germany genuinely want to find a compromise they can all agree on.

Personally, I would like to see a regime change. But that is less important (also less achievable) than Iran agreeing to surrender any nuclear ambitions it has.

As far as I'm concerned that should be the main goal.