How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

Hear hear.

That's Agent Krasnov Trump's job and a great job he is doing with his bunch of evil clowns.

Yes, Iranian women (and men) have risen up. They’ve led protests, faced bullets, torture, and prison. But this isn’t just about stopping a nuclear programme. Meaningful change can’t be flown becasue every time foreign aggressors ‘liberate’ a country they leave it worse and weaker.

That’s why the nuclear angle rings hollow. Remember what Wesley Clark let slip?

There was a Pentagon memo to ‘take out’ seven governments, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan… and Iran. Most of that list is already rubble.

If this were purely about stopping bombs, explain why Israel an undeclared nuclear state with an estimated 80-200 warheads, never signed the NPT still gets $3.8 billion a year in US military aid despite the Symington Amendment barring such support.

Meanwhile Saudi Arabia, holds no elections, impossible to protest, ZERO activism, have been brutal in Yemen with a rising death toll gets red carpets and weapon contracts, not sanctions. In my opinion Saudi Arabia is just as oppressive if not more than the IR.

So yes, the Iranian regime is brutal, but outside pressure that ignores its own double standards only tightens Tehran’s grip and fuels nationalist backlash.

Real reform has to come from inside it cannot be hijacked.

I don't think reform from the inside will ever happen during our lifetime.

I have hope. Still it is no business of the West, to interfere.

Europeans are spectators not actors. is the reality as simple as that - anyone?

Because the G7 and US recognise the threat from Iran having nuclear capability.

Well said.
Saudi Arabia is afforded the leeway because of the billions they invest in the US.

The Arab Spring was ultimately suppressed, likely to the satisfaction of the United States, which has historically preferred dealing with authoritarian regimes that align with its strategic interests over navigating the complexities of unpredictable democracies in regions it scarcely understands.

@Whatsinanameheydo you think that Iran having nuclear capability is problematic and agree with G7 etc that it’s a threat?

That regime will still be there when the ice caps have melted and we're all residing in the Alps. Don't be naive to think a few bombs will kill it off that quickly. If anything it's less likely to do so.

I actually don't. It serves them no purpose. Lets be rational here, if Iran did build nuclear bombs, which it hasn't, and if it did do what mainstream media say they will do, which is bomb the US and Israel (which will also wipe out the palestinians, Jordanians, egyptians, lebanese and syrians) Do you not think that that will not spell suicide for Iran and the Iranians? At most they can build 9, Israel has hundreds and the US has thousands.

There is no benefit whatsoever for them to use them.

Potential is not proof.

This is just about power and deflection. The GZ are just parroting the same points and have zero evidence.

The real issue here is power, not peace. Israel is the only nuclear-armed state in the region, never signed the NPT, refuses IAEA inspections, and still gets unconditional support. Iran has signed the NPT and has no proven weaponised programme and even if they did which they dont, it would take them many years, so this strike in tehran had nothing to do with nuclear capability- it was Bibi clutching at straws and deflecting. The double standard is glaring.

Being rational is all very well, but only when you're dealing with like minded rational people.

I think those considering this do see the threat.

I wouldn’t rely on this rationality.

@EasternStandard I agree with this.

You see no threat from Iran having nuclear weaponry

I find this view concerning. I take it those holding it are in the U.K. too.

But even if you did think that Iran would, they were years away from being able to. Why strike now whilst negotiations with Iran and the US were still ongoing? Eternal war suits Netanyahu's agenda just fine.

I also think G7 are way more equipped to assess this threat than any well intended MNer!

There’s consensus on this btw from leaders on the threat.

SM saying there isn’t any, where does that come from?

Yes me too.

I dont think Iran should have nuclear weapons. I'm sure i have said this many times. I also said I agree that diplomatic means to prevent this should be pursued which is in line with the G7 statement.

I do despair at times.

You responded in agreement to the pp who talked about no reason to think Iran would use them?

I don't think Iran would use them if they did have them, no. The impact on one of their closest allies in Lebanon and surrounding areas would be devastating.

That doesn't mean I think they should have them, it is two very different things.