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Conflict in the Middle East

How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

369 replies

mids2019 · 16/06/2025 20:21

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

OP posts:
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izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 14:30

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 14:24

Why do you ignore them? Why is all your scorn reserved for Trump & Israel?

Seems strange not to acknowledge that they are part of the problem too when it comes to problems in the ME.

  1. With more power comes more responsibility. Who of the parties has more power?
  2. To solve a problem it helps to find a root cause. That what I naively believe.
Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 14:39

So you let Hamas off scot-free because they aren’t as powerful? What a cop out.

Do you think they are less than human that they shouldn’t be held accountable for their actions?

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 14:49

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 14:39

So you let Hamas off scot-free because they aren’t as powerful? What a cop out.

Do you think they are less than human that they shouldn’t be held accountable for their actions?

”less than human” is unfortunate Israeli attitude to Palestinians, both in Gaza and the West Bank, not my view.

I give more agency to Israel in starting the aggression with Iran.

BelleHathor · 18/06/2025 14:52

Whatsinanamehey · 18/06/2025 13:50

Stay out of it. Let the Iranians choose for themselves who they want as their leaders. Right now many Iranians (who are still critical of their government) have rallied behind their leaders because they are under attack by an outsider. This is the natural and likely consequence of a foreign threat. Many were furious when Trump tweeted they should leave Tehran.

The common misconception in warfare is to assume civilians will think my enemy's enemy is my friend. Whilst some may despise the mullahs, that doesn't mean they will despise western influence that causes havoc in their lives any less. Especially if it will lead to a greater war that will see more people losing loved ones, their homes and much more.

Ah but don't you know, the Iranians are waiting to be liberated®️ and it would be oh so rude not to help them! 🥺

Seriously, years ago I watched a documentary where an architect of regime change praised social movements as a great "cover" to manufacture consent from the western public to help bring change. "Give girls education" "let people love who they want". Who could be against (important) campaigns like that?

Remember Iran is sitting on a vast range of natural, valuable resources and controls very important trade routes.

If the Ayatollah had allowed Western businesses to exploit those resources, Trump et al would be great friends (aka Saudi Arabia).

It's never really about the people, it's usually it's about the money.

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 18/06/2025 14:56

We need to stay out of it, for reasons of diplomacy, economics and long term safety. Not our fight.

TwoTierBbq · 18/06/2025 15:01

An Iranian lady called into Jeremy Vine today from UK
She was afraid to speak anonymously on TV. She was happy about this end wants to get rid of the mullahs
She said all terror activities come from Iran

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 15:04

TwoTierBbq · 18/06/2025 15:01

An Iranian lady called into Jeremy Vine today from UK
She was afraid to speak anonymously on TV. She was happy about this end wants to get rid of the mullahs
She said all terror activities come from Iran

Good job she's not posting on here, she would be told she couldn't possibly know what she's talking about. It's all the fault of Trump and Bibi, I tell you.

EasternStandard · 18/06/2025 15:12

BelleHathor · 18/06/2025 14:52

Ah but don't you know, the Iranians are waiting to be liberated®️ and it would be oh so rude not to help them! 🥺

Seriously, years ago I watched a documentary where an architect of regime change praised social movements as a great "cover" to manufacture consent from the western public to help bring change. "Give girls education" "let people love who they want". Who could be against (important) campaigns like that?

Remember Iran is sitting on a vast range of natural, valuable resources and controls very important trade routes.

If the Ayatollah had allowed Western businesses to exploit those resources, Trump et al would be great friends (aka Saudi Arabia).

It's never really about the people, it's usually it's about the money.

I know sarcasm is par for course these days but realistically people don’t want to do this. The US in particular has swung away from voting for it. People don’t want to send their kids basically.

However I agree with @Whatsinanameheyon a few things and think we should stay out. Where this is different is Iran having nuclear weapons. My next question is what will others do if US take that capability out. Hopefully all being looked at by those with more insight.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 15:24

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 14:49

”less than human” is unfortunate Israeli attitude to Palestinians, both in Gaza and the West Bank, not my view.

I give more agency to Israel in starting the aggression with Iran.

What is the reason then that you don’t hold them accountable for their actions?

BelleHathor · 18/06/2025 15:43

Article from 1979 about the abuses Iranians suffered under the western installed Shah.

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/1979/12/6/life-under-the-shah-pit-was/

"Only a few months earlier the press and the U.S. Senate were raising hell about the execution of the Shah's military chiefs and ex-cronies in Iran. They complained bitterly about the violation of due process of law. But they conveniently forgot that the Shah's own military courts (which were unconstitutional) tried as terrorists anyone brave enough to protest his regime. The verdict was often decided beforehand. Where were the passionate defenders of law then?
The Shah systematically dismantled the judicial system of Iran and the country's guarantees of personal and social liberties. His regime consistently violated the codes of law and justice, destroying the dignity of our people by treating them like backward savages to be pulled with an iron hand out of the middle ages into the light of the modern era. Nearly every source of creative, artistic and intellectual endeavor in our culture was suppressed."

"The media had less to say about the 60 per cent of adults left illiterate, and the increasing income gap which made Iran one of the world's most unequal societies. Little was heard about the royal family's financial scandals and their heroin smuggling on a global scale.

SAVAK conducted most of the torture, under the friendly guidance of the CIA. which set up SAVAK in 1957 and taught them how to interrogate suspects. Amnesty International reports methods of torture that included "whipping and beating, electric shocks, extraction of teeth and nails, boiling water pumped into the rectum, heavy weights hung on the testicles, tying the prisoner to a metal table heated to a white heat, inserting a broken bottle into the anus, and rape."

The Shah greatly expanded the military and turned it against his own people. With newfound oil wealth the Shah bought $2C million of U.S. arms. The U.S. military trained Iranian officers. "

Read up on the SAVAK secret police
to see why Iranians who do not support the current government nevertheless want to be left alone. Often after regime changes, things change but stay the same......

Life Under The Shah | Opinion | The Harvard Crimson

It was indeed a strange episode when the Shah of Iran, former head of one of the world's most brutal

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/1979/12/6/life-under-the-shah-pit-was/

BelleHathor · 18/06/2025 15:44

Britain and America arranged a coup in 1953 to remove Irans democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh. Officially the justification given was "communism". Unofficially the British ran to the Americans after Mossadegh nationalised Irans Oil industry and had the temerity to ask for profits to be shared 50/50 (instead of the 80% profit Britain had been taking!)

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHB2GZWgLJE

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 15:47

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 15:24

What is the reason then that you don’t hold them accountable for their actions?

In Iran- Israel war? What actions?

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 15:58

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 15:47

In Iran- Israel war? What actions?

The little matter of Iran being behind 7/10, yet you don't call them the aggressors.

Aliceisagooddog · 18/06/2025 16:02

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izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 16:07

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 15:58

The little matter of Iran being behind 7/10, yet you don't call them the aggressors.

That’s a whataboutery for this conversation.

D you believe Israel had a choice to start bombing Iran or not? If you think they had no choice, you have little respect for the country.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 16:09

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 16:07

That’s a whataboutery for this conversation.

D you believe Israel had a choice to start bombing Iran or not? If you think they had no choice, you have little respect for the country.

Hilarious that you expect me to respect terrorists.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:13

@izthiszeend we were discussing the fact you don’t seem to hold Hamas accountable for their actions re the war in Gaza. Or Iran responsible re funding Hamas.

I’m curious as to why you only seem to hold Israel & Trump accountable for the mess in the ME and the only reason you’ve given so far is that they are more powerful, which doesn’t seem quite enough to ignore a massacre.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 16:28

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:13

@izthiszeend we were discussing the fact you don’t seem to hold Hamas accountable for their actions re the war in Gaza. Or Iran responsible re funding Hamas.

I’m curious as to why you only seem to hold Israel & Trump accountable for the mess in the ME and the only reason you’ve given so far is that they are more powerful, which doesn’t seem quite enough to ignore a massacre.

I gave you more than that answer.
Netanyahu also funded and supported hamas - why don’t you hold him accountable? How come he’s still in power?

Netanyahu wanted the US war with Iran since the 90s. Linking it primarily to Oct 23 is incorrect.

Israeli stated reasons for attacking Iran didn’t include oct7. Why do you?

There are 55000 confirmed dead in Gaza, and recent IDF estimates are close to 400000 dead. Israel claims most dead are hamas. By that reasoning all hamas fighters are now dead. What more accountability do you want from hamas?

I note that you don’t want to hold Israel accountable for its actions. But I don’t wonder why.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:45

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 16:28

I gave you more than that answer.
Netanyahu also funded and supported hamas - why don’t you hold him accountable? How come he’s still in power?

Netanyahu wanted the US war with Iran since the 90s. Linking it primarily to Oct 23 is incorrect.

Israeli stated reasons for attacking Iran didn’t include oct7. Why do you?

There are 55000 confirmed dead in Gaza, and recent IDF estimates are close to 400000 dead. Israel claims most dead are hamas. By that reasoning all hamas fighters are now dead. What more accountability do you want from hamas?

I note that you don’t want to hold Israel accountable for its actions. But I don’t wonder why.

You haven’t answered my question properly about why you don’t hold Hamas accountable. Therefore I will conclude you are only allowing yourself to see things through an anti Israel/anti Trump lens.

For the record I have criticised Netanyahu for several things such as withholding humanitarian aid in Gaza. Though I understand his reasons were to prevent a source of funding for Hamas, nevertheless I don’t agree with it.

I don’t hold “Israel” accountable as in the Israeli citizens but I do hold Netanyahu and his government partly responsible for all the civilian deaths. But I also hold Hamas responsible because I have the ability to see things from more than just one side.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 16:49

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:45

You haven’t answered my question properly about why you don’t hold Hamas accountable. Therefore I will conclude you are only allowing yourself to see things through an anti Israel/anti Trump lens.

For the record I have criticised Netanyahu for several things such as withholding humanitarian aid in Gaza. Though I understand his reasons were to prevent a source of funding for Hamas, nevertheless I don’t agree with it.

I don’t hold “Israel” accountable as in the Israeli citizens but I do hold Netanyahu and his government partly responsible for all the civilian deaths. But I also hold Hamas responsible because I have the ability to see things from more than just one side.

I have answered your questions, you just don’t like my answers, and that’s ok.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:52

@izthiszeend The other reason you gave for not holding Hamas accountable was to do with there being a root cause for their actions.

You may feel like Hamas have a legitimate reason to hate the Israel government for historical reasons, if that’s what you meant by root cause.

I can’t & don’t accept that Hamas were justified in massacring Israeli citizens on October 7th.

izthiszeend · 18/06/2025 17:11

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 16:52

@izthiszeend The other reason you gave for not holding Hamas accountable was to do with there being a root cause for their actions.

You may feel like Hamas have a legitimate reason to hate the Israel government for historical reasons, if that’s what you meant by root cause.

I can’t & don’t accept that Hamas were justified in massacring Israeli citizens on October 7th.

I never said what you think I said.

I agree there is no justification for the massacre on 7 October.

There are no justifications for every massacre that happened to Palestinians since.

There is no justification for the starting war.
Every bit of it is the failure of diplomacy.
Some of these are power grabs by filthy men.
We all can say whatever here, it changes nothing, because, mumsnet is not the government.

Twiglets1 · 18/06/2025 17:35

@izthiszeend This is what you replied when I asked you why do you ignore Hamas and why is all your scorn reserved for Trump & Israel: "To solve a problem it helps to find a root cause".

What did you mean by that then since apparently "I never said what you think I said" in response to me saying "The other reason you gave for not holding Hamas accountable was to do with there being a root cause for their actions".

SharonEllis · 18/06/2025 20:08

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 15:04

Good job she's not posting on here, she would be told she couldn't possibly know what she's talking about. It's all the fault of Trump and Bibi, I tell you.

And that she has no agency because only Israel and the Americans know what their doing and have to take responsibility for their actions. Progressive politics is so fucked up.

Dangermoo · 18/06/2025 20:10

SharonEllis · 18/06/2025 20:08

And that she has no agency because only Israel and the Americans know what their doing and have to take responsibility for their actions. Progressive politics is so fucked up.

Isn't it just x

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