How long until the Iranian regime collapses?

[mids2019]

I think days......

The dismantling of its defence systems, the panic in Terhan coupled with decapitation of the senior ministry leadership alongside important government institutions makes control increasingly hard for the regime.

I think the lack of good options for Iran has made them separately wave a white flag attempting to get back to the negotiating material but maybe it's just too late?

No, just Palestinian children by the thousands.
If you read my comment again I dont support the Iranian regime, but I am even definitely not supporting a government that is commiting genocite, most likely starter WW3 and is playing the victim.

I don't understand the direct relevance to Iran stoning to death its own citizens.

Was I comparing them? I said both are horrific. One tries to eradicate an entire nation and wipe it off the surface of the planet and starts another world war and the other oppresses its own citizens- I just find it surprising that while Iran has been criticised for years, anyone would support the first one at all.

100% agree!

No you were just doing whataboutery. I was responding to the pp who, bizarrely, was trying to say Iran deserved not to face prejudice, when they prejudice their own people. So, once again, your comment was irrelevant.

Let's bomb Riyadh into the 21st Century !

Arguably, Saudi Arabia and Iran are comparable in their severe restrictions on women’s rights and their use of harsh, often medieval-style punishments for perceived transgressions. In both countries, women face significant limitations on autonomy, including restrictions on dress, legal status, and freedom of movement. In Iran, for example, women are legally required to wear the hijab, and failing to comply can result in fines, arrest, or imprisonment. In Saudi Arabia, although reforms have allowed women to drive and travel without male guardians, many aspects of life remain tightly controlled under a conservative interpretation of Islamic law.

Both states also employ draconian punishments. In Iran, public executions, amputations, and floggings have been used against protesters and dissidents. Individuals can be sentenced to death for crimes such as “enmity against God” or “spreading corruption on Earth.” In Saudi Arabia, punishments such as public beheadings and corporal punishment have been carried out for offenses including blasphemy, apostasy, and sorcery.

Regarding religious minorities, Iran has a documented history of discrimination against Jews and other non-Muslim communities. While Iran officially recognizes Jews as a religious minority and allows them one seat in parliament, they often face systemic restrictions and suspicion. For instance, Jews are banned from holding senior government or military positions, and their religious schools are closely monitored. Anti-Semitic rhetoric has also been promoted by state officials and media, including Holocaust denial and conspiracy theories about Jewish influence. Reports of arrests and harassment of Jewish citizens—particularly if suspected of ties with Israel—underscore the precarious position of Jews in Iranian society.

Although Saudi Arabia does not have a Jewish population of similar size—due in part to a longstanding ban on Jewish residents until recently—the kingdom has historically barred Jews from entering the country altogether, particularly for work or pilgrimage. Only in very recent years has there been a shift in rhetoric, driven largely by political rapprochement with Israel.
Despite their religious and political differences, both Iran and Saudi Arabia continue to be criticized internationally for their human rights records, especially concerning women and minority communities.

Trump to make decision on Iran attack in next two weeks

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt is holding a regular news briefing.
After starting off by talking about domestic topics, Leavitt turns to the conflict between Israel and Iran & reads out a direct quote from Donald Trump.

"Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go within the next two weeks."

Leavitt says "nobody should be surprised" by Trump's position that Iran absolutely cannot obtain a nuclear weapon, adding that he has been "unequivocally clear about this for decades".

When asked about whether Trump has any expectations ahead of European foreign secretaries meeting their Iranian counterpart tomorrow, Leavitt says "the entire world is on the president's side".

She tells reporters that the message Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon "is something pretty much all of humanity, except the Iranian terrorist regime themselves, agree upon".

news.sky.com/story/israel-iran-live-trump-tehran-tel-aviv-netanyahu-nulear-latest-13382979

She should have said "the message Iran cannot obtain a nuclear weapon "is something pretty much all of humanity, except a few Mumsnetters & the Iranian terrorist regime themselves, agree upon".

@sualipa

"Let's bomb Riyadh into the 21st Century ! "

Nah - the Saudi's don't plan terrorist bombing attacks against London.

Their civil rights and treatment of women are (just as it is in Iran) a matter for their own Government and people and has nothing to do with us.

👏 👏

Netanyahu says change or fall of Iranian regime ‘not a formal goal we have’

Israel’s prime minister says: “The matter of changing the regime or the fall of this regime is first and foremost a matter for the Iranian people. There is no substitute for this.”

Speaking to the public broadcaster Kan, he said regime change “could be a result” of Israel’s attacks on the country, but it’s “not a stated or formal goal that we have”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/6/19/live-israel-attacks-iran-security-agency-trump-mulls-joining-conflict

Precisely it was a joke to highlight the fact that wars in the Middle East, or elsewhere for that matter, are rarely about democracy or human rights, even if those justifications are added on afterward. Robin Cook once tried to promote an "ethical foreign policy," but it barely lasted a few months before ending in disillusionment and his own tears. That said, while Saddam Hussein was undoubtedly a tyrant, he did not actively sponsor or support terrorism beyond his immediate borders. And let's not forget — we didn’t seem to care when he was bombing Iran with chemical weapons and other horrific means. He was "our" tyrant until he wasn't.

You have got to be kidding me. Saddam was not SO bad was not on my CITME bingo card I have to admit. You never cease to surprise me, I'll give you that. And actually yes, I do remember plenty of outcry against the absolute hortor of his regime. https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/infocus/iraq/decade/sect5.html

Of particular relevance here is this on the culture of martyrdom in Palestinian terrorism, but don't ignore the rest of it.

• In April 2002, Saddam Hussein increased from $10,000 to $25,000 the money offered to families of Palestinian suicide/homicide bombers. The rules for rewarding suicide/homicide bombers are strict and insist that only someone who blows himself up with a belt of explosives gets the full payment. Payments are made on a strict scale, with different amounts for wounds, disablement, death as a "martyr" and $25,000 for a suicide bomber. Mahmoud Besharat, a representative on the West Bank who is handing out to families the money from Saddam, said, "You would have to ask President Saddam why he is being so generous. But he is a revolutionary and he wants this distinguished struggle, the intifada, to continue."

What followed him was far worse, thats the point - “Saddam wasn’t so bad” isn’t my point here and you knwo it. No one’s handing out sympathy cards to brutal dictators. But let’s not pretend the West suddnely discovered it’s moral compass in 2003.

Saddam was vile, yes, he payed out money to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers and that’s grotesque. But if funding or encouraging regionla violence was the red line, I’m not sure why we’re still rolling out red carpets for half the Gulf states.

And lets not act like that was the reason for the war. The actual case made to the public remember Colin Powell at the UN with his little white vial? was all about WMDs, not martyrdom payments.He bitterly regretyed that in his memoirs. When those WMDs failed to materialise, we all just quietly shifted to “well he was a bad man anyway.” That’s not moral clarity, that’s just moving the goalposts again.

So no, it’s not about defending Saddam its about asking why we only seem to care about “human rights” when theres oil or strategic influence involved. If we’re gonna have standerds, they should apply consistantly — not just when it suits Western interests.

And btw, here’s a man who had every reason to hate Saddam far more than we ever could, and he bitterly regrets cheering it on and how ever many self-serving george bush .gov links you provide ain't going to change it !

Gotta love Bernie but then I always have but America voted for this literal piece of shit and here we are.

Nioh Berg whose AI-generated profile picture and vague bio increasingly make me suspect she’s a Hasbara-style account has now turned on the brave Narges Mohammadi, a woman who is risking her life and liberty in the fight for real freedom, accusing her of being a regime stooge. It’s absurd. Meanwhile, if you’ve been paying attention, Berg keeps promoting the Shah’s son a man sitting on $2 billion looted by his father during his escape. You couldn't make it up but she probably is !

I am quoting you here : Saddam Hussein 'did not actively sponsor or support terrorism beyond his immediate borders'. Im glad you agree that he was in fact quite a major sponsor of international terrorismIm not sure why you're lecturing me about other things I didnt even mention.

It’s Mumsnet, not a court of law! I’m mostly posting from memory and always happy to be corrected we should never stop learning, questioning the world around us, and striving to make it better. My friends will tell you I’m known for the occasional rant… maybe I should rein it in sometimes!

@sualipa

"It’s Mumsnet, not a court of law! I’m mostly posting from memory and always happy to be corrected"

Firstly thank you for admitting your mistake- you would be surprised how many don't!

But I think we all have an obligation to not make false statements and when we do at least have the courage (like @sualipa ) to admit them.

@mouthpipette ?

I don't agree with the two week window. There is little chance of devaluation during this period for deescalation or the Iranians to negotiate. With the recent hospital bombing of shows that Iran has enough weaponry to inflict damage on civilians in Israel and with the US now having many assets in the region the US could act in parallel with Israel to defeat Iran quickly and decisively possibly limiting the death toll on both sides as Iran quickly surrenders under the pressure of overwhelming military might. 2 weeks is dithering as what will change in that period? Iran has gained breathing space when it was under immense pressure.

Or fact check before you make such confident assertions?

According to rumors, Vance and Witkoff have gotten to him and the Gulf States are reportedly worried about potential attacks on U.S. assets in their countries. They also recognize that a destabilized Middle East benefits few, aside from Israel. Plus, Trump is a complete fool. You should check out Vlad Vexler on YouTube he's a brilliant psycho-social commentator. Despite being seriously ill, he posts daily and offers sharp insights on Trump, saying he “knows nothing about everything.” It’s spot-on.

Oh and the base Carlson/Bannon/MTG where he will have been down rabbit holes if any can talk with him - he takes personal phone calls all the time apparently and makes them, Utter chaos in the decision making process.

Though based on the evidence you showed, it doesn’t seem that Saddam was personally promoting the suicide bombing phase of the Intifada. That sort of thing was likely cooked up in Hamas’s devilish laboratory. Saddam just swooped in afterward, grandstanding with cash to win points on the Arab street which, if memory serves, was something they were doing anyway.

Then I fact checked it ;

The statement you're referring to includes a mix of historical fact, interpretation, and opinion. Here's a breakdown to help clarify what's true and what is speculative:
🔹 Saddam Hussein and the Intifada (Palestinian uprising):

• True: Saddam Hussein did publicly support the Second Intifada (2000–2005).
• True: He offered financial payments to the families of Palestinians who died, including suicide bombers. In some cases, reports suggest he paid $10,000–$25,000 per family.
• Interpretation: Many analysts agree this was a political move to gain favor on the Arab street, portraying himself as a champion of the Palestinian cause.

🔹 Did Saddam “promote” suicide bombings?

• Unclear / debated: There is no solid evidence that Saddam directly planned or promoted suicide bombings or was operationally involved.
• The funding likely came after the fact, as part of a public-relations or propaganda strategy rather than a directive role in planning attacks.

🔹 Hamas’s role:

• True: Hamas had its own infrastructure and strategy for suicide bombings during the Intifada, independent of Saddam Hussein.
• While they accepted support, they did not take orders from Saddam. They operated on their own ideology and agenda.

✅ Conclusion:

• Saddam did fund families of suicide bombers, likely for political gain.
• He was not a central planner or originator of the suicide bombing campaign — that was driven internally by Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
• Your interpretation — that Saddam “came in afterward with cash to grandstand” — is largely supported by the historical record.

Let me know if you want sources or deeper references.

Personally I welcome the 2 week window as it seems that Trump does want a peaceful solution to be reached via negotiations ( despite his often fierce rhetoric).

Iran don’t want to negotiate while Israel is still attacking it. I hope the negotiators in Geneva today can agree a temporary ceasefire so that more talks can go ahead hopefully leading to a diplomatic solution to be reached within the 2 week window.

I corrected an error in your post. You went on to ask me not to claim various things. I was claiming nothing. You then go on to analyse the question of whether Saddam was a 'central planner' or 'originator' of a suicide bombing campaign. Who said he was? Certainly not me. Im not getting lost in your forest of straw men.