To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

No. No idea where they are getting that from.

😂 OK then I'll humour you. Kindly link the classified CIA document showing the current capacity of Hamas

Here you go. It’s not classified
https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/#introduction

Shall I help you @tobedetermined ?

Some reports show significant damage to hamas (35% reduced by May) and other reports show not as much as Israel hope for. Guerilla type groups hiding in within people are notoriously difficult to defeat.

No one really seems to know how many hamas members/fighters exist in gaza. There are embedded.

The success against Hezbollah is different. Successful targeting seems to be taking out key figures

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/hamas-weakened-prolonged-guerrilla-conflict-looms

It’s simple maths really.

Israel
approximately 170,000 active-duty personnel (130,000 Ground Forces; 10,000 Naval; 30,000 Air Force) (2023)

Gaza Strip
the military wing of HAMAS has an estimated 20-25,000 fighters (2023)

Hamas cannot be an existential threat to Israel
Even before we start totting up who is using 1980s tech vs 2024 tech, and who has nukes.

Good grief, that's really out of date. The final comment being "large-scale ground assault inside Gaza that is ongoing as of April 2024."

It's not up to date and does not say what you purport it does. It doesn't say hamas is no longer a credible threat. It's just run of the mill stats mainly for 2023!

It case you are unaware a lot has occurred since then.

Well, yes, that is why military force isn’t going to work. There can never be total victory over a terrorist insurgence through brute force.

All the precedents in which terrorism has been defeated were through ceasefires and negotiated agreements.

You really don't have any idea do you.

'Nukes' 🙄😂

You can be a threat to security without having 'nukes '

Oh my gosh

No, you are changing the goalposts.
Hamas is a threat, they are simply too small and too ill equipped to be a threat to the existence of Israel.
Hamas is not an existential threat. They do not threaten the very survival of Israel.

They had a very good try last 7 October. While Iran continues to fund them they will continue to be a threat to Israel's survival.

Bollocks, I said they are “not an existential threat”

From the post where you said Hezbollah aren't terrorists, and the post where you said Hamas are.

Sorry but that is bollocks. There is no way that a force of 25k soldiers…now reduced by a third at least, can take out a military force of 170k that has vastly superior weapons and control of the airspace and sea.

Israel is not going to be overthrown and defeated (nor should it be)

That is why Israel feels very secure simultaneously operating on another front and escalating attacks on Lebanon.

I haven’t posted that on this thread?!

Security, yes. Survival, no.

Should have done better is not the same as deploring the huge amount of innocent killed in order to eliminate a terrorist.
What ratio would you find unacceptable?

Hamas doesn't recognise the Oslo I accord as the Palestinian Authority did. "Hamas, does not recognize Israel as a legitimate government". They apparently want to eradicate Israel. Naturally Israel defend themselves. Although many appear to want them not to protect themselves. Hamas don't have nuclear weapons but they do have the backing of Iran who are close with Russia. Iran appears to be testing the waters with various terrorist organisations on the region, maybe to see what gives.

Yeah but this isn't the only thread on mumsnet.

I do deplore the huge amount of innocent people killed. I've never claimed otherwise.

I don't have a number in mind, and I'm also not sure why you're asking. Do you have an answer to that question? Such a strange thing to ask someone, specially when the conversation was just about inappropriate and irresponsible use of language.

Still waiting to hear what my disturbing rhetoric was.

Then you need to RTFT because only on one earlier thread in the past did I post afaik Hezbollah had not been officially designated as terrorists, going by the UN Security Council list of terrorists. I did not know at the time that the U.K. and a few other countries had declared them terrorists independently. I then self-corrected to call them terrorists from there on out, well before the MNHQ clarification post. You do know what you are doing is against talk guidelines.

There are very few threats to survival for many countries. Not to Israel, not to Gaza then since you are talking numbers. Yezadis really were under threat of survival as are Christians in the wider Middle East.

If you use your narrative then just ignore the blighters since they can't kill all of us 🙄

Their statements say otherwise, as they have agreed to the 1967 borders between Israel and a proposed Palestinian State. In addition, they have neither the manpower nor weaponry to even begin to “eradicate Israel”

I am perfectly ok with Israel defending itself, where we differ is in agreeing what should or should not be done in the process of defending yourself against terrorism.

You said that Hezbollah are not terrorists. Flat out. Even after it was pointed out that they are a designated terrorist group in the UK. I don't see how pointing that out is against any rules.