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Conflict in the Middle East

Netanyahu rules out two state solution

253 replies

ConnieCounter · 18/01/2024 20:58

Netanyahu rejects a Palestinian state. Surprise surprise.

What is his plan for Gaza?

Resettle with Israeli settlements? Return to continued Israeli occupation?

How can the US, UK, EU and others continue to support this war when they claim to be in favour of a two state solution?

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-18-2024-73d552c6e73e0dc3783a0a11b2b5f67d?taid=65a95f27cc8ea90001513093&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

A Palestinian woman flashes a V-sign towards Israeli troops during an army raid in the Tulkarem refugee camp, West Bank, Wednesday, Jan.17, 2024. An Israeli airstrike killed four Palestinians during a raid in the West Bank. The military says it targete...

Netanyahu says he has told US he opposes Palestinian state in any postwar scenario

The announcement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu exposed the deep divisions that have emerged between the U.S. and Israel.

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-18-2024-73d552c6e73e0dc3783a0a11b2b5f67d?taid=65a95f27cc8ea90001513093

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stormy4319trevor · 23/01/2024 18:38

I do think liberal Israelis support leaving the WB but you have two opposite groups - the often religious settlers who believe in greater Israel, and the often secular, liberal Israelis who want peace and a 2 state solution. I don't honestly know which group is larger and has more sway.

Itoosurvive · 23/01/2024 18:50

@stormy4319trevor

https://news.gallup.com/poll/547760/life-israel-oct-charts.aspx

Quite depressing reading. Dec 2023, 65% of Israelis do not support 2 state solution, 25% do, the rest undecided or declined to say.

Even more depressing, Netanyahu's approval rating is much the same in Dec 2023 as it was in 2020.

Life in Israel After Oct. 7 in 5 Charts

As the Israel-Hamas war continues, Gallup surveys show hopes for a two-state solution and peace are further out of reach, as Israelis experience record-high worry, stress and sadness.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/547760/life-israel-oct-charts.aspx

Parkingt111 · 23/01/2024 18:56

@statsfun Stormy is right. Currently there's powerful people in Netanyahus government who do support the expansion of settlements and believe in a greater Israel which includes all of the occupied territories. Netanyahu himself approved of (if I remember correctly) 1700 homes whilst the war was ongoing. Some of these settlements are strategically deliberately to hinder a Palestinian state which has East Jerusalem as their capital

stormy4319trevor · 23/01/2024 19:02

@Itoosurvive I'm surprised Netanyahu's approval rating stayed the same. I thought he was becoming unpopular with the supreme court business, and that the security failure would make him eve more so.
@Parkingt111 1700 homes. Wow. Seems to be speeding up.

Parkingt111 · 23/01/2024 19:03

Half the "new neighbourhood" comprising 1,738 housing units will be in the city's annexed east, the Israeli NGO Peace Now said.
"If it weren't for the war (between Israel and Hamas), there would be a lot of noise. It's a highly problematic project for the continuity of a Palestinian state between the southern West Bank and east Jerusalem," Peace Now's Hagit Ofran told AFP.

Itoosurvive · 23/01/2024 19:03

As well as all the reasons, such as appeasing the religious nationalists, garnering votes, etc. I've always had the suspicion that the settlements were also put in place because they could be used in the future as bargaining chips in any negotiations that were yet to come. They were a sort of "having one in the bank".

Parkingt111 · 23/01/2024 19:05

The settlements are placed strategically to prevent a future Palestinian state and to isolate parts of the occupied territories. It's terrible and the US has always been a critic but have never done anything further to prevent it

Parkingt111 · 23/01/2024 19:07

@stormy4319trevor yes it has. With the war raging on, it didn't get the attention that it normally would have. The focus is on Gaza but the situation in the occupied territories have reached a boiling point

stormy4319trevor · 23/01/2024 19:19

@Parkingt111 I think I saw news that an American boy was shot in the West Bank the other day. US said they would be asking questions. Have seen a number of reports of violence, raids and killings, it does look bad there. The new homes in East Jerusalem will make it very difficult for it to be part of a Palestinian state indeed.

Parkingt111 · 23/01/2024 19:26

@stormy4319trevor yes sadly 17 year old Tawfiq Hijazi who was killed after being shot in the head with life ammunition.
Netanyahu has always done everything possible to prevent a future Palestinian state, to the extent that he has been accused by many for deliberately propping up Hamas, just to prevent any future Palestine. its just now he is openly admitting it.

Polka83 · 23/01/2024 21:37

PiersPlowman11 · 23/01/2024 12:55

@Polka83
Regarding your point about suffering, it seems to me that it is part of the human condition.

In other words, at any given time at any given point in the world there will be people suffering. Objectively, are they any less deserving that a family member? No, they are not. But one simply cannot have empathy for the whole world. That is to be too insincere, or to burden oneself with a mental pressure no one individual can uphold.
Then we can be a little more restrictive and argue that perhaps some people deserve more empathy than others... that argument quickly gets murky.
For me, I save my empathy for the people who touch my life and for where I have agency. I can comfort a lost child looking for his parents. I can help a struggling elderly neighbour fill in forms. I can volunteer in my local community.

But I can neither take responsibility for nor do I have agency in human suffering in far flung places around the globe.

Even if suffering were integral to the human condition - doesn’t mean we don’t act to ease it. You can also acknowledge someone’s else suffering without being emotionally succumbed by it- and we each have different tolerances and ways of protecting ourselves. You do you, but don’t make assumptions about others ability to empathise but retain their emotional well being.

I completely agree that a differential lenses should not be applied to empathy.

I disagree with lack of agency - after all, there are some important elections coming up where this will play a role for some. Apparently Biden risks losing voters who may make a crucial difference.

Polka83 · 23/01/2024 22:00

statsfun · 23/01/2024 14:17

@Polka83 : Would a review of situation and pressure being applied by the US and EU be harmful to the Palestinians?

A review, no. But although I can't see the future, I can certainly see how a 2 state solution without the security needed to keep Israel safe could be completely disastrous for the Palestinians.

Now stay with me through this. At first you might be thinking 'this is only bad for Israel'. But keep going to the end.

1.A Palestinian state without political maturity could be taken over by extremists in exactly the same way as Hamas took over Gaza

  1. A Palestinian army (a Palestinian demand which Israel opposes) would then be under control of extremists, based in the West bank
  1. Lack of appropriate border controls (a Palestinian demand which Israel opposes) would allow significant weapons to be imported
  1. Gaza is geographically isolated by the desert, 30km from the first kibbutz attacked on 7th October.

The West Bank is a similar distance to Israel's major population centres. Look at these cities on the map, and consider how many more casualties an attack like 7th October launched from the West Bank would take:

Tel Aviv 30 km from WB: population 1.3 million
Jerusalem: 30metres from WB: population 900k
Haifa 60 km from WB: population 600k
Beersheba: 20km from WB: population 200k

  1. Similarly, rockets launched from the West Bank would not all be stopped, and would not leave enough time for evacuation to bomb shelters when detected
  1. The West bank is 20km from the coast. A miltary attack by that Palestinian army led by extremists I mentioned in point 2 could cut Israel in half, isolate cities and destroy them.

Now many people say that the Palestinians wouldn't do any of these things if they only had their own state. BUT Hamas have been clear that a 2 state solution is only a stepping stone, and a significant number of Palestinians agree with them.

Like I say, I can't see the future, but I don't think anyone could say this was impossible. Or even very unlikely.

So why does this harm the Palestinians?

Because even with Israel's military, it would be facing a really tough fight for survival which it might not win. Do you think they would hold back?

I know it's very fashionable to say that Israel is deliberately trying to kill all the Palestinians in Gaza, but the numbers are very clear. More than half of Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed, compared to 1% of the population. Israel may not being as careful as we'd like, but that's a huge discrepancy.

If Israel's survival was at stake, all their efforts would be on protecting their own population.

50% Palestinian population loss (across the West Bank as well as Gaza) to match the 50% infrastructure loss in Gaza during this war would be 2million Palestinians killed. 100 times more than this war in Gaza.

If Israel did win, I expect they would then expell the remaining 1 million Palestinians, and tell anyone in the UN who complained exactly where to go.

And if Israel didn't win - well, they're a nuclear power, so that would be pretty bad for all of us.

So I think that when Israel tell us that a 2 state solution without sufficient security guarantees doesn't work for them, we should listen.

First of all, your minimisation of the Palestinian death toll left me astounded! And to call it fashionable to be concerned about this! They haven’t dug everyone out of the rubble and people are now starving. The degree of infrastructure structure loss in itself may represent a war crime.

Any way- deep breath- if we were to proceed with your flight of fancy as to what may happen with a 2 SS without any caveats to prevent the things you mentioned (such as multinational peace keeping troops - could do with those in the WB!!) what happens to Israel in the long term?

I don’t think Israel has a chance for long lasting peace without a 2SS. No normalisation with Saudi Arabia, pariah status in the region and potentially elsewhere, bombing by Hezbollah and Hamas (they are not going to disappear), Iranian agitation as they strive to get nuclear capabilities - now that sounds like a dooms day scenario that the US are actively trying to prevent. Why do you think US is pushing for a 2SS?

statsfun · 23/01/2024 22:49

It is not minimisation of either the tragic death toll or the devastating loss of civilian infrastructure to point out the huge difference between 50% of infrastructure destroyed and 1% of lives lost. Nor to point out that if Israel was not making significant efforts to evacuate civilians before bombing buildings then those numbers would be much closer. Especially in a heavily-built up area like Gaza, with no access to bomb shelters for civilians.

I'm sure someone will make a comment about the IDF being trigger-happy. But that doesn't change the fact that Israel has chosen to evacuate buildings even where it will allow Hamas targets to escape, and that the death toll of innocent civilians would be much, much higher if they didn't make that choice.

I do admit to having little patience with the lack of critical thinking evident in statements like 'Israel are killing as many Palestinians as they can in Gaza' which you see too often on these boards. 50% vs 1%. Come on, think.

You asked how forcing a 2 state solution on Israel would harm the Palestinians. I've laid out how removing the existing security (control over borders and imports, demilitarization of the WB, enough distance from the incoming rockets for the Iron Dome to work) could easily result in an all-out war where Israel was fighting for its survival, and so would not be making that humane choice. This would be devastating to both, not only Israel. There is no 'winner takes all'. Both would lose.

ConnieCounter · 23/01/2024 22:58

You're repeatedly quoting these figures, 50% infrastructure flattened and 1% of the population killed as though they're something to be proud of!

Both represent war crimes. Congratulations Israel 🙄

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statsfun · 23/01/2024 23:03

Oh, and I don't think multinational peace keeping troops would help much. They don't bother to keep Hezbollah away from the Lebanese border, despite a UN resolution.

Israel has evacuated their northern border region, but that wouldn't be feasible to protect against a hostile West Bank.

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 23/01/2024 23:05

There is no convincing some people.

statsfun · 23/01/2024 23:06

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ConnieCounter · 23/01/2024 23:13

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I'm just horrified by what you said.

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statsfun · 23/01/2024 23:14

Yeah, sure.

marmaladeandpeanutbutter · 23/01/2024 23:15

@statsfun you and your ilk in support of the Israeli state are making the world more dangerous for the rest of us, and you ought to be ashamed. But I realise that if even the US government can't persuade Israel, there's little hope for the rest of us to.

ConnieCounter · 23/01/2024 23:17

statsfun · 23/01/2024 23:14

Yeah, sure.

You don't even realise why it's so messed up. Incredible really.

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statsfun · 23/01/2024 23:18

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ConnieCounter · 23/01/2024 23:20

I am. I'm horrified that you think that flattening half of Gaza is OK and killing 1% of the population is a decent result and shows restraint.

I don't understand any other way of interpreting what I'm saying.

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AdamRyan · 23/01/2024 23:20

statsfun · 23/01/2024 18:10

@AdamRyan And I'm afraid your post hasn't changed my mind.

Really? You still think Netanyahu and some Israelis (more now than 4 months ago) oppose a 2 state solution out of some kind of vindictiveness, or a desire for a bigger country? Rather than it being based on a justified fear of what will happen to their families based on past experience?

OK. I guess we all understand the world in different ways.

when I hear Netanyahu saying "more security" I think he is setting an impossible condition, knowing its impossible, because he doesn't want a two state solution.

Both things can be true. He can be demanding security guarantees because he believes they are necessary and he can also not believe that a Palestinian state can ever be trusted and so try to prevent that from coming about. Some Israelis will agree with him, and some will have more hope.

What "more security" do you think is possible, whilst giving the Palestinians a state?

I've already said that I think the situation needs to change so that Palestinians no longer want to attack Israel before a 2-state solution can be possible. That's my opinion, no-one else's.

I don't think that if a 2 state solution isn't possible right now then some other way for the Palestinians to have a state right now must be found. Many people have lacked self-determination for very long periods of time. I think that changes to give Palestinians better lives are more important.

This is a false dichotomy of the type beloved on these threads Grin

I don't think either of those things are true. Personally i think Netanyahu believes Israel can only be safe with no Palestinians so I think he wants a one state solution. I think his view is probably that the Palestinians are someone else's problem, probably Egypt and Jordan.

That's only my opinion.

It's not relevant though because (as I said) I don't understand what more security could be put in. So Netanyahu demanding "more security" means nothing.

I don't think that if a 2 state solution isn't possible right now then some other way for the Palestinians to have a state right now must be found. Many people have lacked self-determination for very long periods of time.
What other populations of people are stateless? Are there other highly populated areas that don't belong to any country? I think Gaza is pretty unique in that respect.

I think that changes to give Palestinians better lives are more important. Who are you envisaging will make those changes, given there is no single Palestinian administration, Gaza is stateless and without basic civil functions?

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