@Polka83 : Would a review of situation and pressure being applied by the US and EU be harmful to the Palestinians?
A review, no. But although I can't see the future, I can certainly see how a 2 state solution without the security needed to keep Israel safe could be completely disastrous for the Palestinians.
Now stay with me through this. At first you might be thinking 'this is only bad for Israel'. But keep going to the end.
1.A Palestinian state without political maturity could be taken over by extremists in exactly the same way as Hamas took over Gaza
- A Palestinian army (a Palestinian demand which Israel opposes) would then be under control of extremists, based in the West bank
- Lack of appropriate border controls (a Palestinian demand which Israel opposes) would allow significant weapons to be imported
- Gaza is geographically isolated by the desert, 30km from the first kibbutz attacked on 7th October.
The West Bank is a similar distance to Israel's major population centres. Look at these cities on the map, and consider how many more casualties an attack like 7th October launched from the West Bank would take:
Tel Aviv 30 km from WB: population 1.3 million
Jerusalem: 30metres from WB: population 900k
Haifa 60 km from WB: population 600k
Beersheba: 20km from WB: population 200k
- Similarly, rockets launched from the West Bank would not all be stopped, and would not leave enough time for evacuation to bomb shelters when detected
- The West bank is 20km from the coast. A miltary attack by that Palestinian army led by extremists I mentioned in point 2 could cut Israel in half, isolate cities and destroy them.
Now many people say that the Palestinians wouldn't do any of these things if they only had their own state. BUT Hamas have been clear that a 2 state solution is only a stepping stone, and a significant number of Palestinians agree with them.
Like I say, I can't see the future, but I don't think anyone could say this was impossible. Or even very unlikely.
So why does this harm the Palestinians?
Because even with Israel's military, it would be facing a really tough fight for survival which it might not win. Do you think they would hold back?
I know it's very fashionable to say that Israel is deliberately trying to kill all the Palestinians in Gaza, but the numbers are very clear. More than half of Gaza's infrastructure has been destroyed, compared to 1% of the population. Israel may not being as careful as we'd like, but that's a huge discrepancy.
If Israel's survival was at stake, all their efforts would be on protecting their own population.
50% Palestinian population loss (across the West Bank as well as Gaza) to match the 50% infrastructure loss in Gaza during this war would be 2million Palestinians killed. 100 times more than this war in Gaza.
If Israel did win, I expect they would then expell the remaining 1 million Palestinians, and tell anyone in the UN who complained exactly where to go.
And if Israel didn't win - well, they're a nuclear power, so that would be pretty bad for all of us.
So I think that when Israel tell us that a 2 state solution without sufficient security guarantees doesn't work for them, we should listen.