I think it depends on if Hezbollah engage, even if they do they run the very real risk of American intervention, most Lebanese politicians don’t want any part of this, obviously they can’t actually stop Hezbollah but the protests on the street are not necessarily an agreement to wage war in Israel. Hezbollah do actually care that their people are not bombed by either the Americans or Israel.
Sisi has been going around reassuring Egyptians that there won’t be spill-over (and has done everything he can to call for humanitarian aid whilst insisting the conflict stays on the other side of Egypts border).
Erdogan is happily supporting Hamas while trying to kill as many Kurds as possible so yeah he’s fine with all sorts, providing military aid to Hamas though is another thing entirely.
The Houthis have substantial problems in their own backyards, the missiles are a distraction, they aren’t a real threat.
The conversation in the gulf is a mix of real compassion for Palestinians, hating Israel and blaming Hamas (this is primarily commentators which I assume have the blessing of the leaders and saying what they can’t say directly) hamas have got a harder time with gulf interviewers than they have had with western outlets. So they will happily provide money for humanitarian aid but don’t think for one moment they will join a war against Israel, the Abraham accords were there for a reason. It’s worth remembering the muslim brotherhood is banned in saudi, bahrian, UAE, Egypt.
Because of the geography of Gaza and Israel the IDF have a system where people are regularly going to be rotated out (I can’t remember which news broadcast this was on/newspaper). The core of the IDF, tunnel specialist etc will probably be in there for the long term but reservists won’t be sitting in Gaza for months at a time. It’s a reasonable point that Hezbollah are better equipped than the first time round and their fighters are battle hardened. But even with minor shelling they have already lost over 50 men. There are syrian militants moving into Lebanon but their presence may well be a green light to America to protect Israels northern border (not boots on the ground but bombing the living daylights out of the border) The method of bombing the shit out of buildings and suspected tunnels is precisely to minimise loss of Israeli soldiers lives. Also civil collapse will only happen if Israelis turn on each other en masse which is unlikely to happen if they feel they are under existential threat.
There are absolutely reasons to see this setting off a regional war, Iran is in a bind because it’s been calling for the destruction of Israel ad nauseum for years but it’s currently sitting on it’s hands. I think they just haven’t decided what to do yet. A multi front attack on Israel will also be viewed very dimly by western governments and would attract more support to Israel (in terms of weapons funding etc). It would also mean european/american governments would probably start sanctions on participating governments.
I don’t think the Israelis are trying to commit genocide I think they are trying to root out Hamas. Telling people to move out of the way is not a sign of genocide. I’m sure there are people who would love to see an ethnic cleansing but I’ve also seen Israelis interviewed who want to see a ground invasion stopped because of the loss of Palestinian lives. Don’t assume that there is a unified voice in Israel and I think there are enough Israelis who would be horrified to see ethnic cleansing that the likelihood of that happening is minimal.
A lot of leaderships in the region do not like Hamas and I think the moves towards normalisation also indicate that the issue of what to do about a 2 state solution is seen more as a headache than a central issue. i think Israel has some crazy’s who would like to see every single last Palestinian gone and the same is true of the Palestinian side. BUT most normal people recognise that peace will only be realistically achieved through a 2 state solution, it is a sad thing there hasn’t been the leadership to achieve that.
If Hezbollah sit this one out then Israel stands, if Hezbollah get involved there will a be a wider regional conflict with immense suffering spreading to other countries in the region and Israel will still probably stand if somewhat battered.