I said this on the other thread last night before it got deleted (which I am frustrated about - I don't know the reason for that or what happened after I went to bed).
What are the UK supposed to do to stop the war at this point. A war which the US seems to be giving unconditional support for (largely because of their own geopolitical interests in the wider region).
The UK are actually pretty limited. We have a shared strategic defence policy with the US and Israel which we can only distance ourselves from to a certain extent. Our economic and intelligence ties mean we are locked in to a degree.
BUT I do stress the level of behind the scenes diplomacy that is going on.
Last night I quoted from a long twitter thread about the geopolitics involves. I might try and find it again as it was really useful and balanced.
The essence of it was, much of this situation is down to where Netanyhu had positioned himself politically and the attack by Hamas demonstrated political failure. He then had a choice of resignation or doubling down and vowing to effectively 'wipe out the problem'. The issue with this, is it's not a war he can actually win. He can't get complete victory over Hamas because you can't kill ideas, you can only kill people.
If he displaces Palestinians into Egypt it just shifts the problems and makes them worse. If he goes in too hard he risks widening the conflict. And there's a chance he can do that without dragging in the US too. The geopolitical considerations of other countries mean they can not ignore what he's doing. But the reality is most want de-escalation but that can't happen whilst Netanyhu has still to deliver some goal or objective.
At that point it's going to require significant diplomacy. Who is going to be able to do that? It can't be the US. It has to be a third party sympathetic enough to Israel and the US but also sympathetic and with decent enough relations with other countries.
What happened last night at the UN was significant. It might not seem it, but it was.
The UK broke rank and didn't support Israel and the US over the humanitarian pause. That's a massive thing. The UK doesn't break rank with the US.
People are saying it's appalling we didn't support the motion. That's not true. That's not how politics work. Everyone in diplomatic circles will understand what the UK did last night and that's important.
It was recognition that Israel's action are deeply problematic in terms of proportionality and humanitarian considerations. It was recognition that the government can not ignore the level of public discomfort and unrest with the situation in Gaza. There are domestic security considerations with this.
It's a recognition that British understanding of human rights abuses has reached the threshold where we can't just say ',yep crack on Israel'.
We aren't saying this directly and loudly - but an abstention is not a neutral act either. It's a batsignal calling for diplomacy between relevant parties. It's an explicit message to the US and Israel we are not happy.
This needs some context too.
After the hospital bombing, Biden's meeting with Egyptian and Arab leaders was cancelled. It was impossible for them to go ahead. They needed (for their own domestic considerations) to be seen to be doing something and making a statement. But they still had a massive need to hold those talks.
Magically a very hasty trip to Israel and Egypt was arrived for Rishi Sunak. This wasn't on the cards before the bombing. Sunak went and had a meeting with Netanyhu and did the required diplomatic speak. And then he went directly to Egypt.
Less than 24 hrs after that meeting two US hostages were released by Hamas and very limited aid was allowed (by the required joint agreement of Israel and Egypt) into Gaza. Now this was all tokenism really but that still matters. And someone has to be facilitating these behind the scenes diplomatic efforts.
The UK issue is we have set criteria which we define as war crimes and human rights abuses. Israel's argument that it has a right to defend itself looks like it's crossing the threshold from defence action into disproportionate levels of aggression which match with UK understanding of war crimes and human rights abuses. This line is deeply political and deeply problematic. The UK itself has arguably crossed this line in the past - and not without consequences.
The underlying issue is when you cross that line it undermines stated objectives relating to increasing the safety and security of your own people and the aggression can be somewhat self defeating.
It's important to note at this point that something like 50% of Israeli are concerned at the way Netanyhu has responded to the crisis. This isn't an anti Jewish or anti Israeli point. It's one over the leadership of Netanyhu himself.
By all accounts Biden doesn't get on with Netanyhu either but is supporting due to the USs own strategic agenda. But there will be significant tension there.
The pressure on Netanyhu is enormous. To say that the UK government isn't doing anything is wrong. We are doing a gradual creep which might not look like much to untrained eyes but in diplomatic terms is massive. Even saying in the last couple of days about getting UK citizens out of Gaza quite loudly was a diplomatic reminder to the US and Israel.
Keep watching. Understand the geopolitics involved and how far and fast the UK can push.
We aren't just sitting watching even if that is how it feels.
Things ARE being done. It's just that international diplomacy and geopolitics sucks.