For believing the drop in birth rate IS mostly because people who don't want children no longer have to have them

[CurdinHenry]

"Fertility experts" like Geeta Nargund in the news again insisting that "people still want to have children". Obviously some people wish they could have more children than they get to have. But it's never been a better world for people who are just not into it at all (or try one then realise it's not that much fun).

I don't think a survey asking people in vague terms if they'd like kids one day counts as proof of anything.

I'm not confused by it, I disagree with it.

You've mentioned another tax and a higher percentage of people still in work. The UK government certainly doesn't shy away from finding new and heavier ways to tax its population. And while it is a positive step that companies in Japan now have to employ people who want to keep on working until 65, instead of the previous 60, as long as there is work for them, it is still not as good as in the UK, where they can't sack you just because they think you are getting too old.

And whatever the reasons for the healthy elderly population, that's only good for the economy up to a point. There are more than 100,000 people in Japan aged over 100.

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02902/

I'm happy for them and their families, but a healthy elderly population isn't necessarily an economic benefit.

I agree that there will be no turning it around and there is no precedent for turning this kind of birth slump around. Where I disagree is that Japan deserves credit for planning and preparing.

In my circle of friends (early 40s) there are two who would have been excellent mothers but didn't have kids due to the loser partners they have / had not being good enough dads. Another has decided to have ivf and donor sperm and now has a lovely baby on her own but it will be her only one. I'm sure she would have liked more of she'd met someone.

One is child free by choice.

Another would have had another I think but went through several rounds of ivf to get one and could go through it again.

Then there's me. I have 3 dc, my partner has none. We'd have one together but cost of living and childcare is making us think again.

I think that is a fairly accurate picture of why there are not more babies. But there's probably 6-7 babies that would have been born had those conditions not been there.

@boxofshite In Asian culture they really disapprove of fat people and it’s just not allowed. I was the fattest Auntie by far at the last family wedding and I’m a size 10 at most and 5ft 5.

Think about how obesity is linked to cancer and tripe 2 diabetes, joint issues are far worse if you are heavier. I have an issue with my back, I was born with it if I was overweight it would be far worse.

Maybe had their FIRST child younger but that generation had more children. Women have always had babies in their 30s and beyond. My grandma (who would be about 105 if she was still alive) had her last in her 40s and she was one of 7 children with a 20 year gap between the oldest and youngest.

I mean yeah, what people actually do is a far greater indicator of what they want to do, rather than what they say which is often impacted by internalised norms. I think it's a mix of women who did not want children or marriage now not having to have them and later life marriages leading to infertility, because the data shows it is the childless rate that is increasing right rather than smaller families per se?

No I think it's because of money! The cost of everything is so high and both parents having to work makes life exhausting. Working parents aren't appreciated or supported. Family life in the UK is not easy with having to manage childcare, work, school drop off and pick up. It's a joke really. I mean yes I think it's a mix of things, but I think having a family now is verging on the impossible. That being said I have twins and want a 3rd child but its a lot of hard work and sacrifice, which it always has been but it's harder than ever now. If I didn't really desperately want a family I would have had a good hard think about it and not done it. I dont regret it though.

This is very true. I use to work with a mainly younger (than me) female cohort. Ranging in age 29-37. Of about 10 of them, none of them had children, only 1 was married and only 1 had a mortgage. The rest lived in expensive housing or in share houses and didn't want to work full time, do all the housework AND have kids too. Modern women just don't seem to want it. What to do about that I don't know. Maybe the men will revolt and pull a Gilead on us.

Maybe the men will revolt and pull a Gilead on us.

Any plan that involves men wanting children is doomed to fail.

Throughout history in Europe women essentially unionised and refused to have sex without marriage and long term commitment.

If men are given the choice between dying virgins or supporting women to have children they soon knuckle down and do the right thing. Cultures that are still breeding have exactly that system and it works, just as it did for centuries.

Women have massive power here, they just need to use it.

But you think that because you "desperately wanted children". Loads of people think parenthood (especially motherhood) looks shite.

... You do know that women can enjoy sex too, yes? A strike sounds like a stupid idea.

So?

Why?

I’m a bit older and didn’t want that either and I’m glad I can make that decision rather than being forced into having a child/children.

I don’t like the implication that we should have our minds changed or be encouraged to have children when we don’t want them.

Why would it be stupid to stop fucking men as some sort of manipulative punishment when I want to fuck men?...

Weaponising sex is a maladjusted attitude

It may also be quality of the sperm that has reduced. It’s not always the women’s fault here (even though we seem to get blamed or shamed for however we live our lives anyway).

Great! ....and the men are very grateful for that, and I'm sure you're also having a great time. Win-win.

However, this thread is about declining birthrate rate, and that's what I was addressing.

Yes but it isn't that long ago that contraception was difficult and infection difficult to detect particularly in women.

Childcare is so much better now (15/30 hours free for most) plus breakfast and after school clubs are available. There is more option for men to work reduced hours (albeit on a background of less part time options overall).

We have choices to give up a lifestyle of interesting career, money, going out, going on holidays where we want against having children where many people have little experience of being in a family and just see the downside.

@BadLadso you are saying the Uk and Japans approach to ageing is the same? Ok we definitely disagree!

I’m aware (through friends) which is one of the many reasons I think Japan is different to the UK!

Yes and about the fact that women often don't want to have children or only one. One of the upsides is much more energy and physical appetite for sex. So why would women go on a strike from sex they enjoy for more children they don't want?

I'm not saying they would choose to go back to the bad old days. I'm saying that would be a significant explanation of why some societies have had a massive drop of in birth rates while others haven't.

yeah same. It’s a considered choice for all the people I know except one who tried since her late 20s and sadly wasn’t able to and chose not to adopt

There’s a cultural shift, yes… but only in some cultures. Plenty of cultures make sure women feel enormous pressure to have children and because we are in modern times with better rates for infant survival they end up having more children than ever.

I don’t think human numbers will decrease dramatically, but certainly some cultures may diminish significantly in numbers while others may dominate with big majority.

Let's make claims without looking at the huge amounts of available data! You know who drives the vast majority of per-capita carbon emissions? High-income nations that already have low fertility rates (below replacement levels). The many countries still with high birth rates (like sub-Saharan Africa) have very low per-capita carbon footprints. If you want to make your argument you need to limit it to developed countries, but even then it will have almost no effect on the problem. Only changing how we power our lives will do anything meaningful about pollution of climate change. That means the answer, as always, is progress in technology. Luckily the massive interest in data centres is giving the energy industry a commercial reason to innovate.

Nah I don’t think this is it. I am trying to find the link but I have read that most women who exit their fertile years without children wanted them. But for various reasons did not / could not have them.

I also don’t think the number of childless women had changed massively. But family sizes are a lot smaller.

If you look at what is actually happening in the demographic winter countries there is a sex recession. People are getting married less, and having way less sex. Digital isolation is making the problem worse too. Maybe there are women who do want sex, but there is a stark gap in education opening up in those countries too, and so many educated women can't find a suitable match. The demographic winter is not a world full of sexually active couples who happen to be childfree. It is driven by structural isolation and missed chances: "it just never happened for me".