I think it’s a fair system being proposed, and I think it’s fair also at 15% and maybe 20%, but I don’t know if that’s then hitting the tipping point where wealthier than me others won’t agree? And plan to avoid.
The principle though is pooling risk, and actually, populationally speaking, relatively few people need residential care, and fewer still more expensive nursing care. If they do, it’s on average for a few years only, I think life expectancy in nursing homes is c. 18 months only.
So it’s like NHS really, we all pay NICs and taxes but 1/3 of us only need costly cancer care, for example. But we’re happy to pay the tax as the direct costs to us as cancer patients if we had to pay out of pocket would be devastating for some (suggest read Lionel Shrivers So Much For All That for an example).
I do suspect as an aging society, the costs could increase as we live longer, and people may more readily and earlier seek out residential care as it’s now cheaper and ‘already paid for’. Also, as healthcare outcome improvements for younger adults needing lifelong care continues its growth (this is the fastest growth sector, costing most of ASC budgets) expectations and costs will rise too. We probably also need to pay more to improve the quality of social care. Having said all this- life expectancy is now flatlining and future generations are smaller- I think we have a population bulge now/soon, but that passes and then care demand will fall as population decreases.
I think this system needs to consider the inequality between young adults care (generally better quality, more £££ goes on it) and old adults care AND residential vs domiciliary care, which currently doesn’t take into account assets like the 1.5m£ house someone getting care is living in, if their cash falls to less than £13k ish, all their care in home is free. Tech means the future model of care and support will be taking place more in people’s homes and so this sector really needs close scrutiny.
We have needed this reform for a long time.
I think Burnham should just get on with it and bring it forward, 23 reviews are enough and the Gvt has a big enough majority now.
But I think he will instead head into the next GE with it as a proposal and I worry this opportunity will be lost.