AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

In 1 year we start seeing clear signals in employment data and the jobs market that something is shifting. AI suddenly is everywhere.

4-5 years they potentially achieve AGI, Robotics start to become very mainstream taking over labour intensive repetitive jobs at first then slowly moving to domestic helpers and so on, medical advances and mankind’s understanding of the sciences and mathematics keeps on improving exponentially mostly thanks to Anthropic. Huge mega factories from SpaceX, Intel, Nvidia start to come online increasing chip and robotics manufacturing in vast numbers. Solutions to energy production and storage begin to significantly lower the environmental impact of AI. UBI and transitioning to a new work/life balance starts impacting a large chunk of the population. FSD is in the UK, taxis are self driving, Tesla haulage Lorrie’s become regular sights.

I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw several countries try various combinations of solutions first such as UBI, very low taxation, making housing free, free healthcare etc for the unemployed.

How long will this take? Where will the money come from?

The US will be the first place I would expect to make the most significant first moves simply because of their concentration of wealth from tech.

The US is already a massive economy and they refuse, year on year, administration on administration to provide free healthcare and a functional welfare state for their citizens.

Let’s not forget millions of jobs will still remain, the significant workforce changes only really start shifting once the robotics start to scale and that depends on the ability and reliability of the hardware in work place settings.

The significant job loses are already happening. Again, how long will your proposed experimentation by government take?

But AI achieving human-like intelligence isn’t actually innovation is it? We already have human-like intelligence: us!

AI is not promising to do anything that humans can’t already do. It may promise to do it faster but the point is at what cost will that be? And if the cost of it far outstrips the benefits (cost of resources versus value of output) then what’s the point?

It is not like the Industrial Revolution when technology that was actually far superior to human skill and capability was developed.

If you’re basing your rebuttal of the future AI world on your use of asking ChatGPT a question as though it’s Wikipedia then you’re in for quite the shock soon.

😅

No but all the washerwomen are out of a job. Or are they all going to be paid full time wages for now doing very little? And free healthcare and accommodation too, wasn't it?

It’s the extremely fast data processing side of it that will have the ability to change things. Especially research, medicine and things like conservation looking for patterns in land use and land cover. So whole swathes of researchers will become unemployed with only a few needed to lead a project.

Same with accountancy I imagine, the ability for it to crunch numbers in record time that may have taken an accountant a week to do.

I’m actually basing it on my PhD research.

That reply is gold. Please accept a small standing ovation from my existential crisis driven investment in this subject. Honestly, I can't tell you how much your post has pleased me. Thank you ❤️‍🔥

1. significant shifts in the employment statistics will dictate any timeframe for state help. I think it will be reasonable to say we will start seeing this being discussed at length by the end of this year.

2. the number of multi trillion dollar companies in the US will rise over the coming couple of years, if you think Uncle Sam isn’t going to start asking for a slice of that pie, it will be a major topic of the 2028 Presidential election, abundance for all will be a key vote winner.

3. robotics taking jobs at scale is a couple of years away but the trend will start picking up as soon as they’re ready for market.

I hope you’re right about this and that we will value a flawed human-made product much more than a perfect AI generated one.

My daughter said that she’s seeing lots of AI artwork in things like greeting cards and those colouring books made for adults.

So if tech companies are engaging philosophers and ethicists to shape AI, which ones are they?

I'm listening to a biography about Hannah Arendt currently. What I wouldn't give for her insight right now. The banality of evil has never seemed more relevant.

Maybe now’s the time to brush up on those Uni research skills from all those years ago, a few hours googling AI advances and some podcasts will soon get you on track to understanding what’s coming and how robust the new models are 😉

What makes you think I was talking about previous research?

I have spent many years listening to many techbros and none of them can answer this simple question: what can AI do that is actually, truly innovative?

“It can think like a human” is not innovation.
”It can think like a human but faster” is not innovation.

So in time I expect we will find the costs far outweigh the value.

I'll take a human PHD researcher over any amount of googled AI slop, just in case you misunderstood my appreciation of BelieveinCher's post. That dismissive comeback of yours epitomises everything that is wrong with your side of the debate.

Oh thank you! I find this veneration of AI so strange. Of course companies will use it as much as possible to cut costs, but in time those costs will either have to be shifted to governments (that will push back) or to people (who won’t be able to afford it). Then what happens? The same thing that happens with every “innovative” new technology: plateau, legislation, control.

The problem is the vast majority of society will accept sloppy products by default so whilst AI posters or designs are immediately recognisable to those with a discerning eye, to many people it’s deemed novel and acceptable hence why you’re seeing AI posters and flyers explode on FB groups, they’re dreadful in my opinion. Lazy, generic, terrible colours, bland fonts nothing unique or special but they serve a purpose especially for the aesthetically challenged.

I’m seeing sloppy AI designed products in the lower end retailers like Primark and TK Maxx, mass produced trash that a product manager can churn out with a few prompts so there’s no need to employ a designer. I can spot it a mile off as I’m sure others can and yet these things are selling well enough that retailers make more.

I personally place high value in human made items, whether that’s art, a play, a film, a hand knitted sweater, a ceramic bowl but I know that’s not the case for everyone and the reasons for that can be they don’t care, their under of quality is lacking or they simply can’t afford better quality. It will be interesting seeing how this changes over time because ultimately the design abilities of the AI may improve but will our taste?

Maybe things like sculpture will become important again as they once were during the Roman Empire for example. Or even hand sewn tapestries that would be difficult for AI to create.

Watercolour as a medium may also be more difficult for AI to handle than say oils or acrylic.

The only driver for the average person will be affordability. In terms of the creative arts, we're heading back to hands on artists either starving in garrets or surviving on the patronage of the uber wealthy.

Some people might end up "not caring" because they may never have the chance to be exposed to or engage with hands on creativity, so their taste will only be informed by AI products.

There is a complete madness around the impact of AI on the arts across the board.

So much of human communication is in danger of being lost through the filters of AI.

Artists, artisans, musicians, craftspeople will likely be rendered too expensive to truly hone their skills. And the supplies they depend on will become difficult to obtain or too expensive for hobbyists.

Honestly I din't understand how nonchalant some people are about it, and so passive about living in an almost entirely virtual and automated world, with all the likely ramifications.

Watch some of the latest (last 2-3 months) videos from the Tech commentators, you’ll see the gears have shifted rather dramatically.

New technologies are coming on board to reduce the amount of water required to cool the systems:

Direct-to-chip liquid cooling for processors.

Warm-water loops (30–40°C supply).

Dry coolers or free cooling whenever ambient conditions allow.

Heat recovery where there is a nearby demand.

AI-based optimisation of the cooling plant.

I imagine solar will play an even bigger part in this in the future and battery storage technology will also develop alongside.

Again, shifted to what? What is AI able to do that a human being can’t?

Taking a very basic example: aviation has enabled us to fly. I, as a human, cannot fly. So the invention of planes has been a significant innovation for my species. Now if I was a bird, would I be impressed by a plane?

So telling me that AI will sort of be able to do what my species can already do, but usually not as well, at a much higher cost and using a hell of a lot more resources is not a big win, is it?

That model won't work though because people need to buy stuff to keep economies spinning

😅 this feels like one of those Tomorrows World clips where they’re introducing future concepts and talking about mobile phones or the internet for the first time.

‘one may press a button and send what’s called an e-mail to anywhere in the world…a kind of letter that you can type on a screen’

For the companies that are running head long into the AI utopia, the driver is cost. In my industry it is far cheaper to use AI then to hire new grads. So we halved our new grad programme and encouraged everyone (including the new grads that we do hire) to use AI.

Of course the real issue here is that no-one is paying the real cost of AI. Anthropic and OpenAI operate at vast losses and are only kept afloat by a crazy circular investment ponzi scheme. The moment they try and become profitable, and start charging a realistic, per-token rate, they are screwed, because at that point all the major users of AI will realise it is far cheaper to either run their own open-weights models locally (if they can actually get hold of GPUs that are being hogged by the big AI companies to stop them from doing exactly this), or just start employing junior staff again, or do both.

Firstly, you have a very strange way of expressing yourself.

Secondly, what percentage of the “grand innovations” on Tomorrow’s World actually came to fruition? Very few. Why? Because the theory is not enough. Innovation needs execution. And unfortunately for you (and AI), it is very expensive, very resource-dependent, and very fragile. Now how many innovations with such issues as these have stood the test of time?